Wt Sugar Discussion Threads

[mart] 22/7/2011 09:45

Brazilian cane crop worries send sugar higher


Output in the key centre-south region slashed from 34.6m tonnes to just 32.4m tonnes; the FT makes this a reduction of 3.3%!!! (actually 6.3%)

[mart] 21/7/2011 14:37

Reading snippets about deals in Brazil to use sugar for plastics as well as increased ethanol production. Anybody think this is likely to be significant?

[mart] 19/7/2011 11:37

Been following sugar for a few weeks. Historically, the price level is high and I've been wondering whether or not it is sustainable. Apparently, we are pretty dependent on Brazil for the next few months.

'Brazil's flowering fields signal sugar shock'


Presumably, the price of oil means that there is continuing pressure to convert more to ethanol.

Decent long-term chart, back to 1971 (spikes in '74 and '81), available here.

[mart] 05/7/2011 12:27

'Too early in the season'. Hhmm. The question is - Is it too late?

[stublue] 07/6/2011 23:21

Its most probably China, who suffered their worst drought for 50yrs (ref SundayTimes).

[hectorp] 07/6/2011 12:58

Sugar still well away from earlier highs, but has broken up through a short term resistance. Maybe too early in the 'season' better normally waiting till September.

[stublue] 19/4/2011 21:36

The soon to be front month of sugar no 11, July has reached 22c/lb now. Thats a retracement from 36 to 22 for front month. This despite the fact that sugar is trading at 50c/lb in the Chinese internal market (see article below).



The fundamental story is changing with both EU and China likely be buying World markets apparently. I'm thinking an about turn and a bullish move soon. I've no position but am watching closely for any turn if/when it comes.
Here's the EU story.

[mart] 02/3/2011 15:44

Thought it was a bit strong today.

[stublue] 23/2/2011 22:46

yes, I got stopped out and just looking at the chart it is looking bearish now. The commentary has turned bearish too, an example below.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAY SUGAR: It formed a huge key reversal top on the monthly chart this month. The last time it did so was in February of 2010. It is now February of 2011. If it matches the sell-off produced in 2010, sugar could reach 18.50 ultimately in several months.

Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart is forming a major key reversal top this month suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top four weeks ago that is still intact.
3. On the weekly chart, sugar gapped under the 20 day ma last week and continues to trade under it.
4. On the daily chart, sugar has been trading under the 20 day ma since Feb. 11. That is negative.
5. The daily chart triggered a sell signal last Friday that is still intact.

[mart] 23/2/2011 14:32

Well, is sugar done? Is it time to short? Must confess that my reading of news was that supply is not assured for this year.

[stublue] 21/2/2011 21:29

I'm expecting the short term trend to turn up again tomorrow (Tuesday 22), if only because of oil's huge leap Northwards over the last few trading sessions. As always, though, trade what you see.

[mart] 16/2/2011 10:32

Looks hot to trot.

[spob] 09/2/2011 00:58

Sugar body denounces 'parasitic' traders

By Javier Blas in London

Published: February 8 2011 23:01 | Last updated: February 8 2011 23:01

The world's top sugar traders have attacked "parasitic" computer traders, criticising the New York-based exchange that hosts the main sugar futures contract for failing to clamp down on their activities.

In a strongly worded letter to the ICE Futures US exchange, the chairman of the World Sugar Committee, the industry body that represents the big traders, said the presence of new high-frequency speculative funds "only serves to enrich themselves at the expense of the traditional market users".

EDITOR'S CHOICE
FT Trading Room - Feb-08In depth: Global food crisis - Feb-08Bad weather sends food prices to fresh high - Feb-03Tate & Lyle issues warning on corn prices - Feb-02Sugar climbs as EU considers imports boost - Jan-27Rotting sugar beets sour ABF - Jan-20

The letter is likely to provide ammunition to politicians seeking to clamp down on speculative activity in commodities. President Nicolas Sarkozy has put agricultural commodities regulation at the centre of the French presidency of the Group of 20.

The price of sugar rose last week to its highest in 30 years amid a global shortage. The industry did not suggest that high prices were due to speculators but blamed algorithmic trading for market volatility, at its highest in three decades.

Sean Diffley, WSC chairman, wrote that the rise in volatility was "causing difficulties for members of the real sugar community". He added: "As you know, the exchange's popularity with members of the real sugar community is at a low ebb."

The WSC is an advisory group to the ICE exchange, which has among its members some of the world's largest trading houses, hedge funds, brokerages, producers and refiners. The letter, obtained by the Financial Times and dated January 31, was addressed to Thomas Farley, ICE Futures president.

The WSC asked the exchange to introduce regulations to bring down volatility, including shortening market hours and turning on the so-called "implied engine", a computer system run by the exchange that helps to match bid and ask orders. Some traders also want "circuit breakers" to mitigate wild price swings.

Mr Farley said the exchange was planning to accept some of the demands, including restarting the implied engine.

But he said algorithmic traders were not to blame for higher volatility and defended their role in providing liquidity.

[nabcom] 06/2/2011 21:21

Sugar Supply Shortage Looming

Tropical Cyclone Yasi ripped through northern Queensland, a region growing a third of the country's cane, cutting output potential by 50%

[mart] 19/11/2010 15:01

Hhmm, just bought some LSUG and blow me it's just lost 12% in one fell swoop!

[stublue] 18/11/2010 21:45

Yes, looks like we will re-test highs over next couple of weeks.

[mart] 18/11/2010 16:05

Well, caught flat footed on the recent 'correction' but happy to continue to hold. Seems to be recovering.

[stublue] 04/11/2010 20:57

Well, it blasted through 30c on No 11 contract, the previous recent high in Feb of this year- so whats next - obviously 32c (we're nearly there). However, No 5 and No 16 have only just reached thier recent Feb highs, so not really confirming a breakout from them.

[jackpipe] 04/11/2010 11:03

sugar going for it today, glad I held on to some, but sad I sold some too early too. Spikes like this are surely a time to consider selling though...

[stublue] 29/10/2010 20:28

I keep expecting a pullback at 30c, but commentary this bullish makes me think twice.
-------------------
Sugar 10/29/2010

Life Time Trading Range 2.30 Cents – 66.00 Cents per Pound

Trades on The ICE 2:30 AM – 1 PM CDT

So far this week Sugar has backed off nearly two cents from the highs. Tightness in available stocks and high prices continue to see many buyers on the sidelines, with others buying on an as needed basis. When buyers refuse to buy, prices must decline to a level that encourages them to do so. India's Sugar production is much improved over last year. During the first quarter of 2011 Brazilian harvest activity will be winding down. Hopes are that India will export two to three million tonnes of Sugar at that time. Indian government officials are expected to release their Sugar exportation plans the second week of November. The question is will it happen? At this point it's not a given. I would say it is imperative. Take this into consideration; tightness in supply, India decides not to export, drought like conditions emerge in Brazilian growing areas due to La Nina. Even without continued weakness in the U.S. dollar these conditions could create the foundation for a sharp move to the upside.

The lineup of vessels expected to take on loads of Brazilian Sugar has dropped by fifteen over the last week to seventy eight. As the Brazilian harvest winds down importers turn to other nations for their Sugar supply. Tightness in available stocks is driving the Sugar market higher. World sugar stocks are said to be at twenty five year lows! On Thursday London's LIFFE Sugar contract rose to eight month highs. Trade buyers are concerned that India will not have the ability to provide enough supply to satisfy demand in 2011. Also a drag on supply is the fact that both the U.S. and Germany have decided to allow five percent more ethanol blend in their gasoline. The U.S. will allow fifteen percent and Germany ten percent.

[mart] 22/10/2010 11:19

Doesn't look as if this is going to run out of puff just yet.