Wt Sugar Discussion Threads

[mart] 20/9/2010 10:50

I like sugar for a long-ish hold.
Jackpipe, just posted on the 'corn' thread. I like grains for further gains. There seems to be well-informed (as opposed to the daily ducking-and-diving) commentary on increasing chinese demand unmatched by increasing domestic agricultural production. I wonder if disruptive weather conditions (more likely?) will exert continuing price pressure. If this is PERCEIVED as a possibility fund interest will add to this.

ps. Increasing demand from India (re grains) never gets a mention. Must research whether they are seen as basically self-sufficient.

[mart] 20/9/2010 10:45

Sorry, wrong thread.

[hectorp] 20/9/2010 09:28

Even on the 15 year trend, SUGA looks to be following the longer term chart this particular month, if so SUgar should rise a further 10-12 % in the coming month.
- I don't usually play wheat or coaco , or coffee. I probably should.

Gold and silver may come off, but look assured for further rises.
My worry is deflation could take the edge off gold and silver but so far, no signs of it.

[jackpipe] 20/9/2010 03:33

Agreed I sold a chunk near 25c on Friday, and thinking of setting stop under 23.5 for the rest.
But I'm wondering where to put the proceeds, I'm already in gold and silver, but those have had a good run and seem to be approaching targets.
I read that wheat rust could become uncontrollable within a few years, so perhaps wheat could be good place to catch scare-story spikes.

[stublue] 19/9/2010 19:28

I must admit I didn't view the seasonality chart, thanks for that.
I was confident that 25 was good (on Oct No 11 sugar) because of the previous congestion there on the last run up. But, I'm not sure about how it will progress now since it touched that price on Friday. So will have to keep a careful eye as I'm still long.

I've jumped on cocoa as it seemed to have turned bullish again, after a 25% pullback when Chocfinger stopped accumulating and declared his $1B position. Again, not very confident so very careful.

Confident that corn and wheat are bullish for the foreseeable, though.

[hectorp] 19/9/2010 15:16

Wykoff's seasonality chart in the header - take care longs, as you must be aware of a large brief downglitch in the 3rd week of September on the red dotted 15 year chart ( not on the 30 year).
However SUGA has overcome recent resistance ( last 2 trading days) so is possibly a hold. I'll watch for a couple more days then see.

kristini- assume CGT. 18% or 28% ( Thanks Cable).

[kristini2] 17/9/2010 16:44

is this subject to CGT or income tax, anyone?

where do you find out about distributor status?

[mart] 16/9/2010 11:44

"DJ Brazil's Sugar Trade Pulls Back After High Wednesday"

[hectorp] 16/9/2010 08:35

Was away for a few weeks so had closed SUGA in August. Must start to consider what is next here.

[mart] 15/9/2010 22:22

"DJ MARKET TALK: ICE Sugar Falls Off Newly Made Highs"


I keep posting this stuff but I'm still not sure how useful it is for thinking about tomorrow, or the day after.

[stublue] 14/9/2010 09:22

25 is where we had congestion last Autumn, so I'm presuming it will stop there for a while.

Eventually, above that - obviously if bad weather persists as inventories are very low after two years of big shortfall in supply, as you will know. It did go to 66c in the 1970s, which is equivalent to well over 100c in real terms, so I think going above 25 isn't really that high a price.

[jackpipe] 14/9/2010 08:56

stublue do you have a target for sugar? I had a first target at 23.5 on #11, and have just sold a small batch, but getting itchy about the rest, I was looking for 25.

[stublue] 13/9/2010 21:59

Sugar starting to really motor, even perhaps too quick with a parabolic chart developing.
-------------
DJ MARKET TALK: ICE Sugar Hits 6 1/2-Mo Top On Brazil
1452 EDT [Dow Jones] - ICE Oct sugar raced to a 6 1/2-month peak of 23.50
cents a pound Monday on news that productivity in Brazil's sugarcane industry
fell 9.1% in August compared to one year ago due to dry weather, trade
association Unica says. Rainfall was down nearly 96% in August versus August
2009. Unica in a revised forecast in August pegged the main center-south cane
crush at 570.1 million metric tons for 2010-11. If the dry weather persists,
Unica will likely make further reductions to the crush, an official says.
Volume is pegged at 174,897 contracts traded. Nearby October raw sugar rose
0.61 cent, or 2.7%, to 23.34 cents a pound. (TVS)

[mart] 07/9/2010 11:46

"Asian Sugar Prices Remain Firm On Strong Spot Demand"

[mart] 06/9/2010 15:50

Been trying to get my head round sugar production, global ethanol production and the various constraints involved. This is an interesting and very detailed study. Not an easy read and I haven't fully digested it yet.

www.globalbioenergy.org/.../0811_Wageningen_-_Sugarcane_ethanol_-_Contributions_to_climate_change_mitigation_and_the_environment.pdf

[mart] 04/9/2010 20:16

"U.N. predicts bigger swings in food supply"

[mart] 04/9/2010 20:09

Hi A
Quite a bit of stuff around to help you zero in. The following short course might be a helpful start.



I really suggest you do the reading because I've wasted money over the years 'jumping in' to situations without properly understanding the underlying dynamics. There are a host of instruments for commodities and expiry dates have a critical impact on things like ETF's, particularly if leveraged. Good luck.

[amalanchier3] 04/9/2010 10:48

Hi Mart

I'm new to this market. I'm involved on the basis of the chart pattern but with a limited amount of research into the fundies.

I would be grateful if you could help me to understand the significance of your comment in 266 concerning he "expiry Sept 10".

Many thanks.

A

[mart] 24/8/2010 12:17

Well, LSUG is certainly down nearly 5%.



Don't forget option expiry Sept 10 (confirm Stu?).

[stublue] 22/8/2010 21:50

Coffee and sugar prices spiked to fresh highs yesterday as tight physical markets encouraged speculative interest in the soft commodities.

The price of Arabica coffee – the high-quality variety prized by espresso lovers – jumped 3 per cent to $1.852 a pound for December delivery in New York, a 12-year high.


The US Department of Agriculture on Thursday relaxed regulations on sugar import quotas, citing "increased tightness in the US raw sugar market".

The government agency predicts US sugar inventories will next year fall to the lowest in at least 40 years while the International Sugar Organisation expects this year to see the lowest global stocks of the sweetener in 20 years.

The decision to widen the import window comes as importers are struggling to secure supplies because of bottlenecks at ports in Brazil, the world's largest exporter.

Coffee inventories are also falling amid strong demand and mediocre production in key growers such as Vietnam and Colombia.

The price rises in the futures markets are already beginning to affect the price of a cup of coffee – with or without sugar.

Earlier this month JM Smucker, which distributes the Dunkin' Donuts, Millstone and Folgers coffee brands to US retailers, said it would increase its prices by 9 per cent.

Kona Haque, agricultural commodities analyst at Macquarie, said the coffee futures market had attracted speculative buying. "It's completely dominated by funds right now."

She added that prices were being driven by tightness of supplies in high-quality coffee.

The new crop is due to come to market in October.