Wt Sugar Discussion Threads

[eriktherock] 10/8/2008 18:04

Could be a Black Swan.

[yangou] 10/8/2008 09:43

Very interesting eriktherock

So looking for plenty more upside to come.

[eriktherock] 08/8/2008 10:45

I remember the 'crisis' in late 1974


ASA Symposium Report: Sugar Prices Hot Topic
August 5, 2008 - American Sugar Alliance
Sugar producers from across the country are meeting this week to discuss everything from the Farm Bill to open trade with Mexico and the struggling WTO negotiations. But in the convention hallway, one issue has dominated conversation: sugar prices.

While commodity prices soar for corn, wheat, and soybeans, sugar prices have been stuck in idle for the past couple of years. And it's taking a toll on farmers and processors who are dealing with the some of the sharpest inclines in input costs in history.

[m4ybe] 18/7/2008 03:55

I like the look of general food better at the moment (AIGA), especially as that is most of my cost of living so a good hedge. So I started to pick some up at the end of yesterday, it's oversold but still falling.
Commodities are perhaps a 'crowded trade' at the moment, the only thing that has been going up, and there seem to be unusually high interest in gold in India, America and Dubai. So from a contrarian point of view I think commodity prices will fare better when people have forgotten them and there has been a bounce of some kind in equities.

[jackpipe] 18/7/2008 01:59

it's more about oil I think, and oil seems to be driving the entire commodities complex, including pm's at the moment.

[yangou] 17/7/2008 21:51

Seems Sugar is not so sweet today. Think as shares go down sugar goes up. Think Whisky may do the same in these times

[yangou] 16/7/2008 09:23

Neither am I great on commodities but once many years back I read about sugar commodity prices could and once did go sky high and that was partly because lack of supply due to the weather and that sort of thing. So now what with using sugar to make fuel .So this gives it even more reasons for taking off.

[m4ybe] 15/7/2008 19:27

as it happens I gave up yesterday (so yes it will fly up!)

some ways of looking at it still look fine, like it now being slightly up for the year again, but others seem to be weakening.

Augusts are usually difficult months according to the seasonality graph above, and the last big jump up was soon after launch of SGG sugar ETF in USA, so the liquidity from that was nice, but that sort of thing isn't going to happen regularly. I'm not a very good trader on commodities, but it still seems like the way to go for energy use longer term.

[yangou] 15/7/2008 13:23

Well it seems that is what it is intending to do here m4ybe as it is about to break even higher from the chart position to at least the previous high and perhaps beyond

[m4ybe] 16/6/2008 18:21

I have loaded up ($12.8-$14.1), sugar is used as an oil replacement in Thailand and Brazil. That is enough for me. And even better sugar is back down at cheap perices on a two year or a 30 year view. It has yet to sustainably take off with the other commodities from the 2007 lows. In Bangkok they are talking about a 90% sugar based fuel. Already 50% 'gasohol' is widely available and no longer has to be subsidised and substantially cheaper than normal petrol, the sugar part must be about half the price of oil. When sugar takes off in an oil crisis it multiplies up.

[budevenwiser] 16/6/2008 14:09

this article is a couple of years old but still very relevant

[hectorp] 29/5/2008 09:39

Suga: look at the RSE way down around 20, getting ready for a bounce?

PS
Is a quintal of sugar 112,000 lbs or 1 contract , anyone? worth about $12,320 today, or slightly less than that. So you'd pay a futures broker eg Sucden, $12, 320 per contract I assume. I'm reopening a trading futurs account but not sure which is the best UK based provider. I used to use Sucden.

[jackpipe] 24/5/2008 03:12

I did have targets of about 15c and then perhaps as much as 20c for sugar #11 this year. We got to near 15c with that spike a month or so ago (ETF went to $20, sold some about 18), but still hoping for/expecting the later before cashing out. When this goes (either way) it doesn't hang about.
Things aren't looking good technically though:

[doc60] 23/5/2008 19:22

Wish I knew, I'm currently 25% down on this , don't know whether to stick it out in the hope its got to go back up at some stage or whether to sell and invest in something else, I'm also in cotton which is no better at present.

[jackpipe] 23/5/2008 17:59

sugar getting trashed at the moment. Is this just a seasonal sell-off, or part of the commodities defaltion, or sugar-specific news?

[jackpipe] 20/5/2008 05:12

Thanks energyi, will look into it.

I've stolen this Jim Rogers article link from your GEI thread:

The factors he mentions that killed sugar demand in the 80s are now unwinding to some extent. Corn fructose is currently being demonised, and I would guess plain old traditional sugar benefits to some extent.
The Asians have a very sweet tooth from my experience, and are becoming more able to afford processed foods, sweets etc, but not "post-wealthy" enough to go the organic/natural route.
And of course there is ethanol, and high prices for other crops have encouraged a switch to some degree.

All the same old commodities arguments, in fact. I don't follow in-depth enough to know all the supply/demand/stockpile projections, and the seasonal pattern doesn't look compelling at the moment.

[jackpipe] 28/4/2008 06:06

A home-brew ethanol-maker powered by "inedible sugar". I have no idea what "idedible sugar" is, but apparently its just 2.5c a pound. The whole scheme looks crackpot to me, but I'm sure various types of sugar have a place in the ethanol economy.

[jackpipe] 25/4/2008 11:37

picked up some LSUG (2x leveraged sugar ETF). Dont think commodities are done yet .. bonds look like they're about to crash, what are people going to put the money into?

[jackpipe] 21/3/2008 03:59

Many commodities seem to have bounced very slightly yesterday, so looking very tempting. I wonder how long this 'deflation' meme is going to do the rounds for until people realise its BS.

[a.fewbob] 21/3/2008 01:11

I'm not bitter (no pun intended) about sugars fall from grace since as luck would have it I stopped out at 360 so damage was limited.
Anyone have any specific reason as to why its fallen other than following everything else?
The froth has been blown off all commodities, could this be a good re-entry point?

[a.fewbob] 21/2/2008 23:17

And boy is it doing that!

[a.fewbob] 12/2/2008 23:26

I don't bother using the sugar cot reports as I havn't been following it long enough to see how it works. I just rely sugar generally following other commodities.

[jackpipe] 11/2/2008 14:32

Nice rise today, beginning to wish I was leveraged up rather than just the ETF.
A.Fewbob, Who is the smart money on the sugar COTs report, or is it just a case of gauging the short/open interest to detect extreme positions?

[a.fewbob] 20/1/2008 12:16

Anyone follow th sugar cot reports?