Wt Sp500vix2.25 Discussion Threads

[mister md] 25/4/2023 19:05

Complacency gone in the market ?

[waterloo01] 25/4/2023 17:54

4100 gone.

[mister md] 25/4/2023 14:59

Still holding ...

[zcaprd7] 25/4/2023 02:08

Because the US is the only safe place left...

[waterloo01] 24/4/2023 16:57

Static so far. I'm not sure I get the rational for the S&P heading ever higher, regardless of other factors. With real rates getting close to 5%, a lot of money just won't return to the stockmarket, and with bank lending "tightness" going forward, where is this wall of new money, surely needed to drive prices higher, coming from?

[cevahirs] 24/4/2023 11:07

first day of trading for the "new" VIX today, ticker is VIX1D....one day VIX

[blueblood] 24/4/2023 09:57

Corrupt product imo

[mister md] 24/4/2023 08:45

Vix now jumped to 18 from 16.7

Vilx is down

[cevahirs] 21/4/2023 16:47

correct yes, you could argue that 0TDE kills VIX and everybody moves along nice and easy under the illusion of everything's nice and dandy because VIX is so low right??? so you could argue that these sort of illusions led to massive crises in the past, but not immediately, slowly.... in 2008 we all know how this sort of illusion was created with the "ultra safe" mortgage backed securities and everybody lapped them up because it looked all safe...just like now how VIX currently makes market participants feel about the general risk sentiment...it looks all good...:)

[waterloo01] 21/4/2023 16:34

and by magic

[cevahirs] 21/4/2023 16:31

Not sure, but it has certaintly managed to kill off the VIX, almost like a illusionary mechanism set up to dampen any large moves until, one day Fed ACTUALLY pivots and starts cutting rates, but until then...freze everything and do now allow any vol to creep into the market..that's how it feels. I don't do the VILX anymore as it's a losing battle against the 0TDE and it raised the bar sooooooooooo much for something for VIX to explode..like Putin starting a nuc war or something, anything less than that...VIX hardly moves...it's a mechanism to freeze the market/suspends it until the bull market really starts...feels like that.

[waterloo01] 21/4/2023 16:15

Does that bring out the sell in May options?

[mister md] 21/4/2023 15:57

It's hard to get excited by a 0.26% drop in the S&P though - what happened to the days of 2-3% moves ?

[waterloo01] 21/4/2023 15:49

Richard Fisher was pretty glum.

[mister md] 21/4/2023 15:01

VILX looking a little perkier today, hope it continues well into next week. Big US earnings week next week.

[cevahirs] 21/4/2023 14:55

That's what I talked about a few times in the past...think VIX is dead and hence the VILX instruement...lost its explosivity because of 0TDE options superfically dampening the vol....Wall Street Is Getting a New Fear Gauge as 0DTE Boom Mutes VIX...Cboe plans to launch a one-day version of VIX Index on Monday..Angst has grown over VIX effectiveness in zero-day options era

[waterloo01] 20/4/2023 20:47

Should be a good day tomorrow. Vix 1 month st 20. 2 month at 22.

[wadget] 20/4/2023 14:28

I'm tempted.. despite having made losses on last 2 trades :(

[mister md] 20/4/2023 14:23

Wonder if poor earnings alone can do the trick ?
Tesla -8% currently.

[mister md] 19/4/2023 18:56

Thanks for feedback.
I notice that since Jan'22 the Vix Futures have been range-bound between 20 and 30, so at 19.5 could be at bottom of range ready to bounce back up (or finally breaking trend and heading lower).
Have bought some VILX again for another gamble (no casino near my house)

[cevahirs] 19/4/2023 17:55

market is long gamma and will stay long gamma unless some tech levels breached. so it's like this:
on flat market, CTAs buy
on slightly neg market CTA still buy but a bit less
one positive market CTAs buy (a lot)...

so it's buy buy buy especially w/ the VIX collapsing, CTA have to buy....and market positioning is uber bearish/can't more more bearish = a bull signal....so what's going to break that? not sure, but IF disappointing earnings numbers from msft, tesla, google etc hit the tape and fed sticks to agressive rhetoric (and we pass OPEX this Friday)...then market could start selling off and if it hits key levels, long gamma turns into short gamma, AND IF THAT HAPPENS....CTAs have to SELL....and loooooots of sell....

[waterloo01] 19/4/2023 17:34

VIX at 16 doesn't seem to be pricing in the risks ahead, but a slow grind, either way, isn't great for VIX or Vilx. Forward VIX however still around 19.