Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 23/12/2015 10:23

I don't know about his other funds, but WPCT publishes its full list of investments on the website and GMD isn't among them.

His biggest investment is Prothena, which has doubled since May, though all I really care about is the overall performance of the NAV: it is obvious there will be winners and losers.

[ceaserxzy] 23/12/2015 10:07

Another big woodford investment down the pan, this time GMD down 40% today, this time gmd. I acknowledge that Woodford has been a long term consistent fund manager but his recent record, especially investing outside of Pharmas and tobaccos, are very poor. Look at the ones like CNA, AA., GMD, RR. etc. With his experiences and great research resources, this has to be viewed as great failure.

Not sure that WPCT deserves such heavy premium while other decently performing trusts are trading at 15% discount like JMI. All IMHO. Do your own research.

[nimbo1] 22/12/2015 10:30

Yes that is all true. If this gets to a reasonable discount to NAV I will certainly buy back. I like this investment company for all the reasons you have mentioned. Fundamentally this investment co is a good thing in terms of structure and what it is trying to achieve.

One other thing I have found a little frustrating is the prices he has put large amounts of money to work at in listed companies like rene and oxp. To buy a large % of those companies - then put further growth capital to work in a placing at the new higher price after all the buying is IMO a poor decision because the price is artificially inflated. That has now been shown with the subsequent falls in price in those two stocks. When he stops buying there doesn't seem to be anyone else interested so the price falls. But I fully appreciate your point that in 3-10 years these could be excellent investments and the world may be benefitting from his support. With everything and everyone so short term results driven it is not an easy environment for this type of patient investing.

[mad foetus] 22/12/2015 10:08

I basically agree with that nimbo he should have stuck to his guns and kept it at £200m initially.

However, there is a very important subtext to WPCT that needs to be highlighted.

Typically, new listed companies appoint a broker and the broker does a book build. They will get paid a decent slug for this - often around 1% of all sums raised. In addition, favoured clients will get larger allocations, often so they can sell them on IPO for a short term profit. Investment managers themselves are highly remunerated, often upwards of another 1% pa, regardless of performance.

Woodford did this fund differently: the placing was entirely managed through platforms, so brokers were bypassed and the pigs were not allowed first dibs at the trough. Then Woodford himself agreed not to take any fees unless the fund made 10% pa. The crux of that is that almost all of the investment management industry want this to fail. All the brokers notes are negative, many instis shun WPCT, because he is trying to make a product where his interests are aligned with that of investors rather than with "fellow professionals".

He has asked for patience. I took that to mean 5-10 years. The initial rise to 20% above NAV was unfortunate, and he tried to skim the froth off the top. I wish he had stuck to £200m but we are where we are. This is the sort of fund that could easily rise 60% in a year (after all, something like HSL managed that in a recent good year). But in the end, it demands patience. He invests in small companies with a view to an IPO 3-5 years later. Until the first cycle of IPOs occur, we really won't know whether the investment process works.

[nimbo1] 22/12/2015 09:47

I thought when this fund was launched it would be much smaller and find some interesting unlisted opportunities to provide PI's access to otherwise inaccessable opportunities. He has found some - but because the fund is so large they are tiny %'s.

Over time I think the price could fall below the NAV like most other investment trusts.(even ones with far more liquid underlying holdings!).

I really like what the fund is trying to achieve - early stage companies need the help this fund provides.

[joseph moran] 22/12/2015 07:32

I thought this would have been a good investment, how wrong, more like the patient has gone into a coma.

[prewar] 18/12/2015 12:59

Great article LK, for serious, objective journalism no need to look any further than the Daily Mail.

[liquidkid] 18/12/2015 12:20

Mail Headline: Has fund boss lost it on a punt?


Read it as 3 (ex) FBI agents including a Judge in racketeering to look at one of his investment punts. Since when the hell does a gambler call the cops if he lost a wedge in his last game?

'A rapacious shadowy band of short-sellers intent on bringing down Co for their own profit'
The refute is 'allegations ‘have been recycled over and over’ and pointed out the internet report was ‘anonymous’.
'the affair raises broader issues for the City. These include the conduct of short-sellers who use the internet to publish anonymous attacks on any firm they choose, with little fear of retribution.'

He's gonna need more than a few re-tired old 24 hour Jacks to sort all the other 'floaters' in the portfolio. Bring in Bond, Agent 47 or even Danger Mouse to clean up this mess.
Sh!t on it Blackwater Inc have gone up to 13% today
and are Lending out 6 million shares (0.74%)
Watch the liquidity dry up on this now.

[bdog51] 15/12/2015 21:56

So what caused the sudden 2p jump up in the share price at 12:00 on Tue 15 Dec, not sure what event triggered that (NB as observed on LSE daily chart which could be misleading)?

Still 6p premium to NAV here, was expecting this gap to keep narrowing to a discount with time.

[prewar] 11/12/2015 10:45

LK -

I thought you were worried about WEIF not WPCT, your top five are WPCT not WEIF. What's your position on both funds just so we all know.

Cameron and Osborne are next door neighbours, look at the remarkable job those two are doing with this once great country.

[liquidkid] 11/12/2015 10:29

Also this week had a peer down the black rabbit hole and this is what I saw. A top 5 list of zombie stocks. These are holdings which have no tradeable volume. See post 518 (which refurrred to DDDD) It is very difficult to initiate a derivative/margin position in these and for some strange reason currently defy normal rules of market gravity.


1.Imperial Innov (IVO) - This is a big Deadweight starting to unwind

2.4D Pharma DDDD - Norwood (IP) Spin Out 20% DDDD - Need a Biosuit to look at this.

3.Allied Minds ALM - Kerrisdale short thesis leads to increased confidence and holding.

4.Hvivo.com HVO.L Retroscreen.com ViroHealthcare Norwood (IP) Spin Off Played the ebola card.

5.e-Therapeutics Healthcare Wokeup in last days with a volume crash.

and another nod to:
Oxford Pharmascience (OXP) + Health care HQ are next door neighbours

[my retirement fund] 10/12/2015 16:13

do you think it makes a great deal of difference if it is closed or open ended.

In my experience people will simply buy what they deem is fashionable rather than what appears to be a good investment.

[mad foetus] 10/12/2015 14:54

"Shocking this is still at a premium rather than a discount to NAV.
People must think Woodford is some kind of guru."

It's closed ended and people will pay a premium for a top name manager to run a closed ended fund: look at the premium on the Lindsell Train IT if you want to make your eyes water.

On the other hand, lots of brilliant IT's at silly discounts - I've been buying HSL all year at a 10% discount though that has narrowed sharply in the last week. There is a huge pricing power in brand names in the IT arena that I would argue is illogical: but then, I suspect Woodford would agree with me.

[my retirement fund] 10/12/2015 14:43

Perhaps a change of name. Wood patient capital for the dead.How about woodford corpse and death fund.

[liquidkid] 10/12/2015 11:08

Makes no sense at all.
Creating a WEIF thread would be dragging investment discussion down to another level of stupid - because WongaFlud has ALL the stocks.
It would be as boring as this -
AZN up today must be WongFEIF buying
GSK down tomorrow must be WongFPCT buying

Finally clicked as to why Brit Buffet calls it 'Patient Capital'

'The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.' Warren Buffett

Talk about being patient waiting for the end of days. 10 years? you're all going to be more than half dead if not fully by then.

[brahmsnliszt] 09/12/2015 22:21

Is there a bb on his equity income fund?
Strikes me seeing as many here have more funds tied up in that it makes sense to talk more about that

[my retirement fund] 09/12/2015 22:05

Shocking this is still at a premium rather than a discount to NAV.

People must think Woodford is some kind of guru.

Take a look at RM2 and the recent further placing he has just taken up and you'll see he's a monkey.

[eeza] 09/12/2015 21:42

Woodford sells stake in Rolls.

[timtom2] 09/12/2015 20:27

Rolls-Royce gone.

[davr0s] 09/12/2015 20:19

"Patient" and PIs just don't mix - all the froth has come off the price. I'll buy if it gets 5% below NAV and if it doesn't I'll look elsewhere

[dr biotech] 09/12/2015 11:38

There are 62 holdings in the WPCT. Drax is not one of them (its a small holding in the WEIF).

Velocys is not held by either - in fact he sold before the recent slump (score 1pt to woodford, -1 to the numpty).

I very much doubt he will pick 62 winners (99 in the WEIF) and there are bound to be some that are going to severely underperform. Basing his performance on those is ridiculous.

[liquidkid] 09/12/2015 10:40

Not trying to be disruptive here but what else has been going down on the unicorn farm this week?

DRX -14% In the war on coal Drax is ISIS. Only James Bomb could get out of this position.

Imperial Innov (IVO) -7% Dead in the market. no volume. none. a Deadweight

RM2 -10% Ramps Up Stake as share price falls. Cap 171 mn

UTW -15% UtilityWise - PowerStupid basket case. Make up the market, make up the numbers.

Velocys VLS -13% IP Spin out - potential customers looking to harness the economics

NetScientific -20% r&d Losses OWNS 45.3% NSCI -Ramps Up Stake as share price falls.

and a nod to:
Oxford Pharmascience (OXP)- straight line fall since June

[minerve] 08/12/2015 15:31

"bus passengers left standing by the roadside for an hour in howling wind and rain after bearded musician's e-cigarette was mistaken for a BOMB"

Superb!

ROFLMAO

[liquidkid] 08/12/2015 15:28

WAHaR Trust supporting terrorism?

Meanwhile Zeus’ healthcare team has advised Kind Consumer, an e-cigarette company on a £20m fundraising from Woodford Investment Management.

Then Motorway closed and bus passengers left standing by the roadside for an hour in howling wind and rain after bearded musician's e-cigarette was mistaken for a BOMB - DailyMail

[netnut] 08/12/2015 12:06

thanks for the replies.