Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[netnut] 20/1/2016 12:19

According Hargreaves Lands. Premium/Discount 0.2%

[ceaserxzy] 19/1/2016 19:02

you are moving the points of arguments. I specifically said illiquid ones like Allied minds, IP, imperial solutions etc. Small companies where he has a big stake, especially in terms of the market cap of those companies. I don't have a problem with his holdings with GSK and don't see why he needs to sell GSK as it is a good value and defensive in current market conditions.

[toffeeman] 19/1/2016 18:21

I wouldn't call Redde, GSK or AZN illiquid stocks

[ceaserxzy] 19/1/2016 18:06

he cannot sell as if he sells such illiquid stocks in large amounts, the price will collapse. That is the danger with many of his holdings.

[toffeeman] 19/1/2016 12:35

That's not true LiquidKid - he can't see the unqouted stocks - but he can sell the others.

[liquidkid] 19/1/2016 10:32

Don't trust him not one iota.
Aliend Mindwipe, a WPCT company is the number 3 holding. That is a fact.

At December Name Industry % (weight)
12 Allied Minds Farcicals 2.37
38 SciFluor Life Sciences (unquoted) Health Careless 0.94
29 Precision Biopsy (unquoted) Healthneedof Care 1.25

total 4.56% = position: 3.

This was put into the WPCT when Invesco bailed at 365p with the 'our confidence has increased' clanger. It is a loose reference to Hypothesis testing when in actual probability none was done at all.

So what is Brit Buffett going to do with such a loser in the portfolio? If he adheres to the strict caliph of the real Gru then he would own up to the mistake and take it on the chin (like W.B.Guru vs Tesco.)
Problem is...he can't. He can't sell. He can't sell any of them.

[harveydee] 19/1/2016 10:20

Toffeeman, I also have concerns that the unquoted stocks in WPCT are perhaps being overvalued currently ... How can we be sure that their valuation is totally up to date and shouldn't this uncertainty make a *discount* to NAV more justified than a premium ?

[toffeeman] 19/1/2016 08:31

I like (generally) the WPCT portfolio - I think it has the potential for good growth but there are also some pretty risky stocks which may not make it (Abzena springs to mind).

I bought at launch and sold at 113 and will probably re-buy when the discount increases: 85 would be an attractive entry point IMO. If a major sell-off does happen then anything below 75 would be a bargain.

[jonwig] 18/1/2016 17:43

Toffeeman - you misunderstand my post, maybe? Once the existing ords go to a discount, you can't raise new shares of any sort!

(Actually, that's not true ... JZCP and MVI did just that last year, but it bought them few friends.)

[toffeeman] 18/1/2016 16:21

Why would anyone buy C shares at 100 when you can buy the existing stock at a 10% discount? Makes no sense at all.

[dlku] 18/1/2016 15:33

20p written on this

[mad foetus] 18/1/2016 15:31

jonwig,
you can say what you want, as long as it is polite!
I bought in at launch, sold a bit to fund something else but still hold most of my initial purchase and intend to hold for a long time - hopefully decades. But I just very much wish that Woodford had invested a little more selectively and taken more time getting the £800m away. That said, the point you raise is correct and salient: he must be pretty confident in his abilities.

[jonwig] 18/1/2016 15:14

mad f: he emphatically *says* he wants more money (in an RNS) and will talk with investors. AFAIK there's only one has notifiable holding, Blackrock at ~12%.

If I may say so, you are ever so slowly changing your stance here!

To me, the strange thing is that he is charging zero fee, wants to raise funds (zero cost? ... no!) and deploy them for zero fee in pursuit of a model which is now no more than an article of faith.

[minerve] 18/1/2016 15:06

You either trust in Woodford or you don't. I originally sold out at 114-115p because I suspected the premium wouldn't last, particularly given the back-drop that Woodford was issuing more equity and killing off surplus demand. I didn't agree with his decision to do this, or the board's decision, it wasn't just Woodford's own.

Now, pricing is more realistic and they are considering asking for more money. You have to take Woodford's view on this at face value or you might as well find somewhere else for your money. I always have concerns of size and whether it can be managed appropriately, but Woodford doesn't seem to have concerns, so, on reflection, neither do I.

This is a long-term investment with the best manager in the UK investing mainly in UK business start-ups etc. If you can't invest in that you may as well forget investing all together - seriously! Go and join the Chinese or Americans who can't run capitalism without it being a circus or a casino!

I have bought a tranche, and will be buying more!

[dr biotech] 18/1/2016 14:40

If something comes up then could of course sell one of the more liquid holdings that he has. Not sure if its possible to post a graph of NAV vs FTSE 250, but I think that would be the most relevant measure of peformance of his most UK based performance. I will start to increase my holding here with next month ISA allotment.

[tyranosaurus] 18/1/2016 13:20

Mad foetus

You are spot on.
It would be interesting to know which of these investments he earmarked the original £200m for and whether they have outperformed the other ones.

[mad foetus] 18/1/2016 12:59

I'm not sure why he needs new money at all. I think Woodford should have shown the same patience her required of investors: he should have raised £200m and placed it carefully in the best ideas he could find. Then raise another chunk a bit later when he has identified further investments.

With hindsight, it all looks a bit "bull in a china shop" where he raised £600m than he originally sought, spent it all immediately, issued more at premium and now wants still more. I am sure there are bargains out there, but it does beg the question of whether he has tied up money for the long term in the best investments, or whether he simply bought more or less everything that was available at the time of launch, and now that more things are available wants more of them.

I think most of us assumed that WPCT would invest a small amount initially in unquoted stuff and then gradually (patiently) build up that part of the portfolio by choosing the very best investments that were available.

[jonwig] 18/1/2016 12:48

If he's looking to raise new equity, his options are getting a bit limited. Ideally, he would like a substantial share price premium so that he can tuck the offer price between nav and share price

His other option would be to to offer "C" shares at, say, 100p, and when these are fully invested have them convert on the basis of nav ratios. But this would fail to attract if the existing ords fell to a discount.

His quoted holdings will carry a market valuation, but has he adjusted unquoteds at all?

[liquidkid] 18/1/2016 12:35

Why? why? WHY?

The TRUST title has gone on the accumulating bets on all these nefarious companies that we have been talking about.

Now the PATIENCE has lost it too rushing in like a mad commodore as the NAV sinks now 89.99p, at quote 90.5p

A CAPITAL loser. The risk manager must be having convulsions with the skyrocketing volatility.

Another great W. Buffoon quote that should have been heeded.
"Never invest in a business you cannot understand."

Disclaimer:
Investing is backed by a solid investment strategy with defined goals, an accumulation schedule, allocation analysis and, most importantly, a defined sell strategy and risk management plan.
Speculation is nothing more than gambling.

Due to the danger of retaliation from the Company and Individuals involved, this post was written under a pseudonym. People who commit fraud for millions of dollars are willing to do anything to keep their illegitimate gains.
Given the serious nature of the allegations made and the subsequent substantial drop in the share price, the Board believes it is important to address the comments made on this board.

[votiem] 15/1/2016 16:03

I haven't... this knife got further to fall

[minerve] 15/1/2016 15:00

I've bought back in.

[liquidkid] 15/1/2016 14:53

Another knife in. This time Evil masterinvestabator calls 'poor old' WolfofWoofSt
Circassia CIR holding a 'deadbeat'

Agreed, it has done nothing since listing.
After years spent watching allergic reactions to cat videos on you tube
Harris said the firm was considering branching out into food allergies next.

The Wolf has been in this IP Group spin out since the Invesco years but his funds have been constantly accumulating even up to last week.

06.01.2016 - hits the button for a million shares taking holding to 16.2%

10/11/15 - pumps another million into Cat drug CIR taking holding up to 42,937,597 15.1%

[19bells] 14/1/2016 09:04

Topvest I'm beginning to agree with you on that one. Asking for more money just to dilute the 1yr disappointment. It must be quite tough actually putting your money where your mouth is. Look at some so call naked traders do they ever prove they just made x amount on a six week holding.