Weir Share Discussion Threads

[phil140158] 24/8/2012 12:48

Welcome, UHOUND. Hope your right! My target is 2200, so holding 'til then. GLA

[uhound] 24/8/2012 12:32

Could not wait any longer - have filled my boots sub 1700p.

Could easily be 2000p and still offer value.

Don't normally buy FTSE100 but too much value, potential here imo.

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2012 09:07

0607 GMT [Dow Jones] Deutsche Bank initiates Weir Group (WEIR.LN) at buy with 2150p target. Says the fall in the US natural gas price has caused the shares to de-rate, which in Deutsche Bank's view, creates a good entry point. In addition, highlights Weir's business of making and servicing pumps and related equipment for the mining and oil & gas industries. "Rising ore and energy consumption, deteriorating grades and high wear rates make this an inherently attractive business," says Deutsche Bank. Weir closed Monday at 1750p

[phil140158] 16/8/2012 13:06

CR - when the share price hits 1820 or so, might we expect it to rise back to 2000 again to complete the symmetry of the bowl?

[cockneyrebel] 16/8/2012 11:05

Lovely bowl here still - next rally and leg up not far off imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 13/8/2012 12:59

A quiet BB is good Greek Islander - good news imo, shows there's little hype in the price imo.

Sell when there's 50 posts a day imo.

CR

[bogg1e] 13/8/2012 10:55

Theres a few things to think about with weir for me. I use vectorvest and weir are undervaled with a target price of approx 2050p. Secondly is there more to these rumours of siemens ag buying weir? The rumour first broke from february i think and wihch has reemerged recently. But heh rumours are rumours. Thirdly in regard to fracking there is a lot of pressure building in the states against it due to ground water pollution, the diversion of ground water for fracking which farmers require for thier crops (currently the states is experiencing the worst drought/harvest since the thirties) as well as the the fact that the presence of fracking related oil gas companies are driving up the price of water allotments in the regions they operate which has got the farmers in an uproar. So theres further upside in value, the possibility of a takeover and in changes to the fracking industry, which would measn reverting back to oil related industry and therefore greater profits (if i understand correctly that the success of fracking has made gas so cheap that theres limited profit to be made in the sector). If i am wrong on that assumption pls feel free to correct me. Cheers.

[greek islander] 13/8/2012 10:31

CR
Why is this BB so quiet?
I am puzzled. A huge company with good newsflow and a nice share price steady rise as the shale situation in the States becomes less of an issue.
Weir is still by my assessment well undervalued and I am quite happy to be predicting a likely further 10-20% increse in the share price this year from here. Looking at the fundamentals and the prospects is reassuring but this is a company that always seems to appear under the radar.

[cockneyrebel] 01/8/2012 15:04

1353 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup raises its Weir Group (WEIR.LN) price target to 1600p from 1400p, based on higher peer multiples. Regarding Tuesday's 1H results, says they didn't provide much clarity on major areas of uncertainty, particularly the sustainability of pricing and margins in the shale oil & gas business. Says this was not a surprise and thinks the market is unlikely to get a clearer picture until 4Q. Retains a neutral rating given a valuation that is broadly in line with mining peers, but expects continued volatility. Shares are 2.1% higher at 1689p.

[broadwood] 01/8/2012 13:18

WEIR - Weir Group 7,073 +0.97%

- Following a 7% outperformance in engineering giant, Weir´s, share price over the last month and despite the company having posted only minimal earnings momentum on the broker´s forecasts for 2013 (historically a key driver for the stock), analysts at Credit Suisse ask themselves why they are still buyers of Weir?

It gives three answers:

Firstly, its estimated 2013 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have declined 17% year-to-date better reflecting pressure pumping weakness with management now actioning self-help initiatives (cutting capex, 25% reduction in SPM operating costs by year end) to offset upstream oil & gas headwinds.

Secondly, as visibility improves and estimated 2013 consensus forecasts become more realistic the stock starts to rerate towards its peer group earnings multiple from its current discount (especially as EPS growth returns in 2014).

Thirdly, a full 58% of the group´s earnings before interest, taxes and amortizations is generated from a combination of Power & Industrial and Minerals with both posting a book-to-bill greater than 1 in the first half of 2012.

Lastly, Credit Suisse points out that: "Weir is trading at 11.3 times Credit Suisse´s 2012 estimated earnings representing a 4% sector discount. Historically it has traded at a 10-15% premium. While a lack of earnings momentum will prevent this premium being regained for now we see the spread as overly discounting pressure pumping headwinds."

Credit Suisse has raises its target price on the firm to 1850p from 1750p before, while keeping its overweight rating unchanged.

[matt123d] 01/8/2012 10:21

Bid rumours with Siemens and GE

[phillis] 01/8/2012 09:48

strange goings on

[broadwood] 31/7/2012 15:34

I doubt it. The share price has declined from around £22 on the back of the shale problems which started to emerge around March.

I guess the key is the oil price which probably won't see much of a recovery whilst the world economy is in slowdown mode.

But my feeling is that this is in the price and further downside is unlikely.

Hope I'm right.

[arja] 31/7/2012 14:49

big disappointment for market I guess and may be more downside after the big run up ahead of results.

[apad] 31/7/2012 13:54

FT comment:

Shares in Weir Group fell back on Tuesday after the FTSE 100 engineer cautioned that the slowdown in the US shale gas market could push full-year underlying profit to the lower end of market expectations.
Weir warned that, "assuming no significant change in macroeconomic conditions", full year underlying profit would be £440m-£460m, "with the low end of the range reflecting no improvement compared with the second quarter in upstream oil and gas".
The figure is lower than the £470m that Weir guided to in May, and came in spite of the engineering group reporting a near-30 per cent increase in interim revenues.
The industrial pump supplier on Tuesday said that a slide in demand for equipment used in "fracking" – a hydraulic fracturing technique used to release gas from dense shale rock – had been offset by a jump in orders at its mining and industrial power divisions.
New orders at the group's minerals division, which provides equipment used in mining and oil sands operations, rose 11 per cent year on year to £726m, driven by a buoyant market in South America.
Orders rose 22 per cent at Weir's power and industrial division – a provider of equipment and maintenance for power plants – buoyed by a resumption of the nuclear market following the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan.
However the group's performance has been overshadowed by tough conditions in the North American shale gas market, which has been hit by oversupply following a recent production boom.
Weir supplies one in every two of the high-pressure pumps used in the US and Canadian shale markets, and a fall in gas prices has encouraged some of the group's customers to cut back on production.
First half orders at Weir's oil and gas division fell back 7 per cent year on year to £373m.
The decline in shale gas prices has led to an unwinding of forward orders, with $84m worth of last year's orders having been cancelled during the half, according to Keith Cochrane, Weir chief executive.
"We see shale as a market with long-term growth potential," said Mr Cochrane.
After Weir's shares rose almost 150 per cent in 2010, the City has since turned bearish about the group's prospects, and the engineer's shares are the FTSE 100 index's most shorted stock.
Roughly 17 per cent of its stock is out on loan – 10 times the bourse average of 1.7 per cent.
Weir shares declined 4 per cent to £16.33 in early London trading.
Revenues in the six months to June 29 rose from £1bn to £1.3bn, and pre-tax profit rose from £167m to £203m. Diluted earnings per share rose from 55.8p to 69.7p. An interim dividend of 8p was proposed, up 11 per cent.

[cockneyrebel] 31/7/2012 12:28

Still a huge bowl to play out on that chart imo - bet this dip is short lived.

CR

[bogg1e] 31/7/2012 11:05

FWIW vector vest has weir as highly undervalued, approx target value at 2100-2200p and currently has a buy tag. I like the increase in the dividend however small, it is both conservative (which is reassuring in these strange markets)and optimistic. Ive long wondered whether weir would be a takeover target, lets wait and see. Topped up another 5 grand this morning on the dip. Good luck all.

[broadwood] 31/7/2012 09:38

Market chatter in last few days of of possible interest from Siemens and GE.

[broadwood] 31/7/2012 09:16

Numis Weir Group PLC 31/07/12 09:04 Upgrades Add Buy 1 2,300.00 2,300.00

[apad] 31/7/2012 09:14

agreed Phil. Note the comment on oversupply in the fracking market.

apad

[phil140158] 31/7/2012 09:04

Good results under the circumstances, but as predicted the market didn't like it.
Digital look gives a consensus forecast of £453m, so the range of £440m - £460m in the report is about right, however KC says it'll come in at the bottom of the range if Oil division doesn't improve. Increase in debt to £800m ish. Caught me out, didn't get my shorting hedge on, 'cos the report was a bit early. Hardly any volume so far, so shouldn't fall much!

[broadwood] 31/7/2012 08:51

If anyone's going to bid, they need to do it pretty soon.

[cockneyrebel] 31/7/2012 07:43

A PE of just 12 - I struggle to remember these on a PE this low when they were growing still.

Very nice statement today, better than Ik expected based on the way the shares had tanked.

All imo/dyor etc

CR

[broadwood] 31/7/2012 07:38

The pressure pumping difficulties have been well discounted and strong statement otherwise.


The Group has continued to perform well, benefiting from a strong opening orderbook and delivering record first half profits. Generally positive conditions in mining equipment markets, alongside effective ongoing delivery of strategic growth initiatives in Power & Industrial, demonstrate the benefit of Weir's diverse presence in its three chosen end markets and ongoing focus on effective execution in changing market conditions. Despite challenging North American pressure pumping markets, investment in the capability and broadened product portfolio of the Oil & Gas division enabled it to meet its first half revenue expectations, supported by a strong first contribution from acquisitions

[apad] 27/7/2012 17:19

Bet the technology, not the market, phil.
apad