Weir Share Discussion Threads

[broadwood] 21/6/2012 12:38

Goldman Sachs Weir Group PLC 21/06/12 09:49 Reiterates Conviction Buy Conviction Buy 0 2,800.00 2,800.00

The oil price has languished on slowing worldwide growth and I guess that has impacted on projects. Maybe the gloom and doom has been overdone.

[raysor] 21/6/2012 11:16

Weir tipped in Zurich Club report (which seems to be well followed)

[tratante] 21/6/2012 09:11

Well if so I am not complaining! To be fair they only reiterated the guidence they'd already issued. Not their fault if people didn't believe them first time round and shorted the shares!

[phil140158] 20/6/2012 19:45

Thanks, tratante. 1350 or so seems to be the bottom for now. The recent rally was signalled by the two director/pdmr share purchases, prior to the investor presentation. I wonder if these would be regarded as one of the 20% of 'dodgy' share transactions as revealed by the FSA?

[tratante] 20/6/2012 09:25

Confirmed recent guidence on full year profits (ie no profit warning). Minerals division (53% of co) order input up 18% compared to the previous year and ahead of expectations. Aiming to double 2011 divisional operating profits by 2016. Sold over £1B in equip expecting 3B in aftermarket over 10-15 years. Plus lots of technical stuff about increase in demand for minerals and more equipment needed to extract from lower grade ores etc.

webcast available on weir site. need to register but free.

In summary, one in the eye for the shorters. But they have done well for themselves and had plenty of time to close, so they won't suffer!

[phil140158] 19/6/2012 11:52

Two director's buys and the capital presentation seems to have had a p+ impact. Can anyone summarise the presentation? TIA

[praipus] 12/6/2012 12:27

Also available here without having to register

[tratante] 11/6/2012 23:37

Cheers attrader, thanks for this, looks to be an excellent resource.

[attrader] 11/6/2012 18:39

tarante, I use square mile data, it is new service, so not that sure about accuracy of data

[phil140158] 11/6/2012 09:47

attrader - no worries. Just thought you knew something I didn't!

[tratante] 11/6/2012 09:20

No offence taken attrader, it's just that sometimes people post alarmist statements with a view to talking down the co. I never mind if someone offends my views so long as they provide supporting evidence! Thought your talk of exponential increase in shares on loan was heading into alarmist territory. Plus I genuinely would like to know where one can get the actually numbers of shares on loan. The FT site gives an ordinal scale, but it's not clear what the boundaries are for those groups.

For what it's worth, my own view is that O and G has taken a short term hit because of reduction in new gas fracking, but with that there is a concommitant shift to shale oil extraction etc which is also part of Weir's business together with a lucrative after market business in both areas. Think this is a short-term readjustment not a signal that profits in O and G will be significantly down. Indications of increased revenue from other sectors (see IMS. Only hearsay evidence to support my view and not intending to offer advice to anyone!

[attrader] 10/6/2012 23:38

tratante, phil,

sorry, no intention to offend anyone's views. Just happened to notice the share price weakness and was trying to understand why is it so. I dont have any position and dont intend to short.

I noticed from recent IMS

"Reported order input was down 5% on the prior year period and decreased 26% on a
like for like basis"
"http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2012/article/52330713"

This is consistent with guidance from Final Year results. BTW, O&G contributed to 40+% of profits last year.So, continued weakness has potential to impact fy guidance.

Again as i said, i dont follow the company, and you guys would be much more knowledgeable than I am . So follow your judgement .

[tratante] 10/6/2012 23:21

attrader - really - stock on loan exponentially increasing? what percentage is it currently, and where do you get your numbers from? Could you post a link, please?

[apad] 10/6/2012 15:14

Sorry Phil,
I was being too literal.
apad

[phil140158] 10/6/2012 13:10

APAD - I agree that there is a long way to go before the next management statement from WEIR and that there is every likelihood of further downward movement over the summer. Just wondered if our new friend attrader had any news or was just deramping!

[apad] 10/6/2012 09:50

phil,



apad

[apad] 10/6/2012 09:44

phil,
I have pointed out the high price to free cash flow ratio. This is a high growth, low yield share that is vulnerable to the growth story being switched off.
I don't think it is oil and gas sales that govern Big Oil's exploration activities, but the price. They have benefited from high oil price for a while now, but low gas prices in the US (I believe) has limited exploration expenditure.
Results came out in Feb. and recent statement. Long way to go 'till interims.
I think the story is in the open with plenty of time for share price weakness.
There must be some trade press that has information on the Big Oil's spending - now that would be interesting.
If there is a big spike down in the summer I might well increase.
apad

[phil140158] 09/6/2012 16:09

attrader - do you have evidence of a 'sharp decline' in O&G sales?

[attrader] 09/6/2012 11:52

yes, stock on loan is exponentially increasing. I wonder if shorters are anticipating a profit warning given sharp decline in O&G sales.

Also, from a cursory look at their balance sheet, they have high intangibles and net borrowing. Will take a detailed look later.

[tratante] 09/6/2012 08:32

Looks like others agree with you APAD:

[apad] 08/6/2012 07:56

p...

PER of 11, but CAPEX is up considerably and price to cash flow is 16.

I think that if I didn't have a large holding I would start building a position now.

Wish I knew more about the dynamics of short selling.

Other engineering shares of quality are bouncing up and down every time the 'world is going to end' argument reverses its direction - not so WEIR.

apad

[phil140158] 07/6/2012 20:03

Grim indeed, APAD. Miners and oil producers up over the past couple of days and WEIR still going down. Not sure what will turn it round in the short term. Watch and wait, I think.

[apad] 07/6/2012 17:05

Weir still high on the short selling list and 11 vacancies in Middle East only.
apad