Weir Share Discussion Threads

[phil140158] 25/5/2012 19:18

GI - maybe the bad news from Cape this morning regarding their Algerian contract? WEIR often tracks the miners, so I'm not surprised to see it down, but pleased it was only 7p or so. Haven't reopened my long spread yet - but I will. Nice to see RB. doing well - hows your short Sanks?

[greek islander] 25/5/2012 13:01

Disappointing today with every other stock on my portfolio blue this one lets me down! Cannot see why the negative pressure is winning. I have taken the opportunity to top up twice today. Building a very large stake here now. In the past I had generally spreadbet Weir, but now actually buying the stock itself.

[raysor] 23/5/2012 09:52

Missed the important bit, the link:

[raysor] 23/5/2012 09:51

Weir Group written up in Share Spotlight. Redmayne Bentley say buy at 1506p. Good analysis which points to the hydraulic fracking division being a worry: explorers turning to more profitable shale oils, meaning the market for Weir's hydraulic fracturing equipment, under the SPM name, has fallen.

Investment banks cut targets on Weir's trading statement "until there is more clarity on the risk to earnings as a result of potential pricing pressure in the fracking equipment market"

[phil140158] 16/5/2012 09:47

Bit of support at £15? You still on the sidelines Elmfield?

[apad] 16/5/2012 06:57

GI
At £15 and a PE of about 11 I agree and have increased my holdings. My only caveat is that the yield could be a little higher.
CRDA for example is on a much higher PE, but also has a higher yield.
WEIR has new products and its customers buy parts.

Having said all that there is no doubt that traders with good timing made profits when the PE was on a par with its tech. peers at 16 or 17, and good luck to them.

I operate my portfolio on the staircase principle, so I expect to hold WEIR forever, or longer, and increase when they are out of fashion. 10% is the top step and they will not be allowed to go higher than that. At the moment that'll be at a share price of £40 (in practice reinvested dividend income also limits climbing ability) - I expect we'll still be on the board then :-)
apad

[greek islander] 15/5/2012 23:00

I remain strongly bullish here believing that you have to judge Weir across the board on all its activities and on that basis that the company will continue to grow profits. The forward expectation PE is now quite moderate for such a giant almost blue chip company.
Any world recovery from recession will push the shares forward at a very fast rate. Failing that they should still recover the share price to a more sensible level. I am happy to treat this longer term expecting to retain my holding and maybe increase it over at least a five year period. I also feel that at its current derisory share price it could now attract a takeover bid by one of the even larger worldwide engineering companies. Suffering from various perceived factors it has a long way to go upwards I think. All the deramping shorters on here cannot hide that, though they have been doing quite a good job of de-ramping the share price.

[elmfield] 14/5/2012 20:09

wait with me on the sidelines.

[phil140158] 14/5/2012 19:41

Sanks - point well made, but it's becoming a bit of drag now. Your short WEIR and RB. - we know - move on! For me - funded my 2012-13 ISA and WEIR will be in it. Might even be all of it - it's just a matter of timing!

[sanks] 14/5/2012 16:46

...........and it continues dripping, while the nobs are targeted by the brokers with stupendous price target!...do we ever learn...do we poodee!

Hope the level 4 target below £10 helps
Sanksalot

[greek islander] 14/5/2012 09:26

Digital Eye website big tip today is Weir
"Pump and valves specialist Weir Group has been a favourite of the bears this year on concerns the low US natural gas price would crimp orders for equipment for the shale gas industry. The boom in fracking and shale ga s production has resulted in a glut of gas in the US – and it does not yet have the infrastructure to support exports. This has resulted in producers reining in gas developments. However, 32 per cent of total revenues in 2011 were generated by the oil and gas unit – and not all of these orders related to US shale. Last week's trading update revealed that orders in oil and gas slumped 26 per cent on a like-for-like basis in the first quarter. However, order input at its minerals division rose 18 per cent, which was ahead of expectations. Power and Industrial orders were also strong, up 35 per cent, or 27 per cent on a like-for-like basis. This meant the group maintained its full-year guidance. Questor feels very strongly that the long-term prospects of Weir outweigh the short-term issues in some of its markets. Each of its sectors is in a long-term bull market as the global population rises and demand for energy and basic materials rises. For that reason it concludes by sayin g that, "Questor maintains a buy on this quality company."

[sanks] 11/5/2012 12:25

Have a look on RB bb...i didn't call it yesterday!
Phil, when the markets are in poodee mode...fundamentals go out of the window and someone throws a poodee back inside the window!

Its all shaggered now..europes in turmoil..no signs of growth anywhere..its a declining cycle on real term poodee poodaa, with respect.

Drip target remains below £10
Watch and learn Phil...i already called it a buublle over £22, when most were ramping..then it went BANG!

Hope it helps
Let me know
Sanksalot

[phil140158] 11/5/2012 12:08

Sanks - respect for calling the drop as you did, but the fundamentals of the business do not support your last post. The signals you get from Level 4 or wherever may say below £10, but it isn't gonna happen (IMHO). Calling a drop in RB. yesterday wasn't difficult, let's see if your £30 prediction holds!

[sanks] 11/5/2012 10:54

I have cut mine to just below £10.
Let me know if it helps
Sanks

[sponges] 11/5/2012 02:48

Hi Tratante - just reading through and observed below - I am happier with your GS quote have to say
---
Hell of a big difference between what Brainsmiley said earlier
Morgan Stanley cuts Weir Group PLC price target to 1300P from 2090P
----
Cheers Sponges

[tratante] 10/5/2012 22:14

Goldman Sachs as quoted on Proactive Investors

"We believe the longer-term growth and returns potential in Weir's O&G business remains highly attractive despite the near-term headwinds resulting from industry transition from gas drilling to oil and liquids-rich," the broker said.

The broker reduced its target price for the company to 2,920 pence from 2,960 pence but retains its 'conviction list buy' stance on the stock."

love the way they have reduced their target price by 40p!!

Poacher turned gamekeeper?

[sanks] 10/5/2012 10:46

Could have made loads of coins if you had inserted you're loola into RB yesterday.
I have just closed several poodaays..with a vew to reinstating them as soon as the seep come to ramp £ buy.

Hope it helps

[sanks] 10/5/2012 00:18

Look Phil, after market close today, even the institutions are selling out of RB!
Told you level 4 advises first, the rest follow.

Target remains below £30..easy money
Hope it helps



Reckitt Benckiser's largest shareholder JAB Holdings to sell £1.3bn stake to fund Avon bid
9 May 2012

The holding company, controlled by German billionaires the Reimanns, holds a 15.5pc stake in Reckitt. The sale was announced after the market closed, with 36m shares, about 4.9pc of the company, being offered at a price of £32.50 to £34.

"They're selling shares to raise cash for other investment opportunities, including Avon," a spokesman for JAB told Bloomberg.

The sale of the shares in Reckitts will reduce JAB's holding in the company to close to 10pc, but the Reimanns have pledged not to sell any more shares for at least a year.

However, the sale is likely to lead to a fall in the FTSE 100 company's shares on Thursday as the market weighs up the significance of the latest sale by JAB, which once controlled nearly a quarter of Reckitt.

[tratante] 09/5/2012 23:24

If proof is needed of the nonsense being talked about Weir, take a look at the following (nothing wrong with the article per se, but look how analysts and the market are failing to make sense of the situation):



"The recent boom in the shale gas industry has pushed natural gas prices on the US Henry Hub benchmark so low that explorers are cutting back on fracking for gas in order to focus on more lucrative shale oils. "

and who supplies equipment for shale oil extraction?

"But Mr Graham-Wood suggested the market would continue to mistrust Weir's long-term prospects "until the whites of the eyes of the oil and gas recovery can be seen".

see my previous post re reduced energy demand - enough said!

meanwhile as Weir declines...

"Bucking the trend, commodity groups populated the FTSE 100 leaderboard after Glencore posted a bullish update, reporting "robust" first-quarter trading and "healthy" demand in China. Glencore rose 5.95 to 397.95p, Antofagasta was up 19p at £10.49 and Vedanta put on 30p to £10.89, the day's biggest climber. "

...and where do they get equipment and services for mineral extraction? Now let me think?

yes they were caught out by reduced demand for upstream equipment for fracking gas, but we are talking about the need to redress a balance, not the wipe out some seem to be suggesting.

No idea how long this shorting will go on for, but it's not based on any rational analysis.

[sanks] 09/5/2012 23:13

Phil, i hate to see good lads get wiped out.
Always do whats right for you mate..if it doesn't feel right, then don't. I certainly am not telling you to trust someone on a bb that you've never met...but

...I have this bellend type of level 4 tingly jittery throbbing feeling about RB.
Its a good company, but a good company cannot have a "blank cheque" valuation.

On that basis, i see it hitting £29.90 short term, and £24 longer term.

Put it in your portfolio if you don't trust me, watch it, then when it drips towards £30..come back and ask me how i knew!

As always, do your own research.
I have done mine and occassionally i like to share it.

Hope that level 4 futures contract projection helps
Professor Ellsworth aka Sanks

[tratante] 09/5/2012 22:51

Director buys 50K worth of shares.

I agree, with the decline in world consumption of oil and gas, US efforts to remain dependent on energy supplies from beyond it's borders, coupled with reduced demand for minerals once important for electronics and other industries, Weir is obviously struggling to contend with a rapidly shrinking market.

[simon gordon] 09/5/2012 20:47

FT:

Weir Group lost 5.1 per cent to £15.14 even after a trading update from the pumpmaker left full-year guidance unchanged thanks to stronger than expected demand from miners. That disguised a sharp slowdown at Weir's pressure pump business, which is highly reliant on the shale gas industry.

"With the downturn in the oil & gas division just taking shape, we see further downside risk to the management's guidance [and] expect to see significant downgrades to 2013 consensus expectations," said JPMorgan Cazenove.

[ed 123] 09/5/2012 14:38

Phil.

The short sellers wouldn't have known the contents of the IMS, they would have deduced it (approximately). There was a lot of short selling activity in early February - too early for the IMS.

Sanks may speak for himself, but he may be saying that he has permission to write uncovered calls. He could have done this at around the £20 mark (in February), well out of the money, eg. written at £15. He'd make approximately £5 per share (x margin) for his employer.

Sounds like a very profitable trade for Sants.

[phil140158] 09/5/2012 13:32

Bless you, Sanks for your wise words! I don't think it would have mattered what the IMS said. Either the big shorters knew the contents of the IMS or they have it so tight that the price was bound to fall. Of course, the state of the market doesn't help. Otherwise we would have seen the short position being closed before today. Hey Sanks - what's this Level 4 all about then?