Wandisco Share Discussion Threads

[qruz] 04/9/2018 15:30

Yes it's an enabler to move data from Any angle to where it's connected.

On premise to Cloud

Cloud back to On premise

On premise to another connection.

The only problem is that, if a company has low classification for it's data (no IP, PII, etc) it may wish to move the lot to the cloud (to save money and easier) and in that case use Fusion, but once it's completed they won't need Fusion. So there it only offers a timely use, not a forever reoccurring license model, for that type anyway.

Which is similar to AWS Snowball but for longer term projects.

[vanadiumx] 04/9/2018 15:18

I think a key point that I didn't pick up immediately yesterday is that Fusion is allowing a customer to move from AWS to Microsoft. Fusion therefore frees up any client of one of the big cloud providers to move their data to an alternative provider relatively painlessly. That same client no doubt could potentially move to Ali Baba, again using Fusion, with WAND being the hub of any of this traffic. Or am I missing something (other than contracts that tie clients in on fixed terms)?

Link to the Edison research note:

[qruz] 04/9/2018 15:00

I agree they've state a burgeoning pipeline, now they have to deliver.

[knighttokingprawn] 04/9/2018 14:37

It’s painful , but I lean on a few things ..

The big buyers must have had some confidence in the longer term picture to get involved at £8 -£10. What ever we may think about the fund management industry , institutions like Robur don’t “punt” without some DD. We also know there was rumoured to be a large us buyer at the same level. There is certainly no evidence on any volume selling. So we must assume they Are in for the duration.

The change in revenue model, I think has to be plausible given the above , and we will know that The CFO has been pushing for this since his arrival...

We have to assume that the core shareholder base are happy with the pipeline .. I suspect DR has been a busy man in the last 24 hours.

This is a huge three months for Wand Stock .. there will be no second chance from here and I think they know that they must convert the pipeline into dollars or they will undoubtedly lose their shareholder base.. hence my view that £7.50 holds .. there is such a massive incentive for the management team to convert here .. it’s going to be a big game of chicken ..but if it’s going well .. you will see it in the price action.( news will leak) .. if they bag 2018 .. the market will pay 15x the 2019 bookings number is my guess .. that is $750 mn market cap ( 15x50) that’s a £14 target ... got to own at £7 and change !!

[tickboo] 04/9/2018 14:15

Not sure my analysis is any good but hopefully 820 will represent a well timed buy.

[nimbo1] 04/9/2018 14:05

SBT, KTKP and Tickboo - thanks for the analysis. picked up some shares in the 820's.

[tickboo] 04/9/2018 12:51

Horneblower you seemed to have called the bounce once more. Hats off to you. Really hope H2 is impressive and we see quarterly reporting again next year. After the H1 bloody nose they need to build momentum and revenues. Hopefully these statements ring true.In the first half we began the transition toward predictable, annual recurring cloud revenue and away from large and difficult to forecast on-premise transactions. This is an expected and extremely positive evolution for our business. It opens up a significantly larger addressable market in the cloud and will enable us to generate a more predictable- recurring revenue base.The early traction we are seeing with Microsoft clearly demonstrates that Fusion is the only solution capable of enabling organisations to seamlessly move large volumes of critical data to the cloud, without any downtime or service disruption. Unlike on-premise deals, these cloud deals are initially smaller in revenue terms but are expected to scale materially over time as is common with cloud deployments." The Company has a robust and strengthening sales pipeline which underpins the Board's continued confidence in achieving full year market expectations.

[tickboo] 04/9/2018 11:55

Poor form punting other PLCs on another BB. You've been doing it all over.

[costax1654x] 04/9/2018 11:54

SBTX (RNS next week),And Dish (RNS next week)

[tickboo] 04/9/2018 11:32

As mentioned on here previously by some it makes sense to go after more lower revenue generating contracts rather than fewer larger ones. Good to know the contract values should increase over time in the cloud rather than on premise. It wouldn't surprise me if they move back to quarterly reporting next year. They moved away from this due to the visibility issue which is hopefully a thing of the past. Perhaps if they have a really strong Q3 (they'll have to close many deals this month) we could get one end of Oct but my guess is they'll start to quarterly repeat again next year ahead of a possible US listing. They'll want revenues higher and demonstrate decent quarterly reporting. Remember cloud services is also Alibaba's most impressive growth area so with fusion being a standard component in one of their products hopefully they generate decent revenues this quarter and beyond.

[superbobtaylor] 04/9/2018 11:22

Think about the RNS this way. WAND must have had some serious leverage with IBM to get them to agree to the new pricing. If IBM were not desperate to keep re-selling WAND they could easily have said no thanks. However IBM know that WAND could have threatened to walk away now that they are in bed with all of the tier 1 cloud players and this would have left IBM stranded. The fact that IBM accepted this new deal shows what a strong position the company are in long term.

SBT

[tickboo] 04/9/2018 10:25

I hope you're both right and I hope that Alibaba, Microsoft contribute a lot in H2 as well as the more established partners. No wonder we didn't have any contract RNSs given the approach they're taking which does make more sense re visibility and recurring revenues. Hopefully they can build well from an uninspiring H1 and justify the market cap and some.

[knighttokingprawn] 04/9/2018 09:05

Hornblower fwiw .. I think £7.50 is the level we do not break until or if we miss the 2H... the FY is still the stated target by managment and we have seen a multiple compression around the bookings number ((30 mn ) 2018 ... I think we wont crush that until we get capitulation on that number .. chances are that wont happen and it Certainly wont happen this side of year end... suggest a floor in place imo.

[horneblower] 04/9/2018 08:45

At 800p WAND is resting on two major support lines. One of them is the rising line that it bounced off 750p almost a month ago.
It could collapse from here but I bought back in at 790p yesterday (yes, I know that sounds a bit too good to be true but I was lucky...I think).

[knighttokingprawn] 03/9/2018 13:55

Stijfel saying same

[tickboo] 03/9/2018 13:23

Edison note -WANdisco's strong strategic progress takes another step forward, with the IBM relationship expanded to cover relational database technology and terms significantly improved. H1 bookings of $9m reduced from $10.2m but we believe strategic progress will translate into an inflection in bookings in H2. The Microsoft partnership only started getting into gear late in the period, generating three deals, while Alibaba should also contribute. We leave our estimates unchanged and believe an H2 inflection should be the start of a long-term, cloud-driven growth cycle.

[knighttokingprawn] 03/9/2018 09:28

Superbob , has the correct interpretation. It will hang obvioulsy on their commit to the full year in the trading statement... but this is good and I think a precursor to listingon the US .. they need revenue visibility.. hunting elephants is great but the visibility thta comes from cloud deployment on TB / node deployment is better..

Say again the IBM renegotiation is a big deal and would certainly have slowed piepeline conversion... the stock is down , but frankly if we can stay here it proves that the major shareholders are still belivers .. so DR still has their vote.

[phowdo] 03/9/2018 08:35

Negative growth yet priced for massive growth - this has got a lot further to fall.

[superbobtaylor] 03/9/2018 08:32

The company are making the transition from on-site / private cloud implementations to true cloud (MSft, Alibaba). The latter is reoccurring revenue that will build over time. Once these deals start to stack up things will start to look different.

SBT

[nimbo1] 03/9/2018 08:30

Partnerships great but have to have at least some evidence of revenue traction in my opinion. Could go back to the placing price over the next few months where I expect it will be a very good long term buy. Unless of course DR head promotion officer under-delivers again!

[tickboo] 03/9/2018 08:20

A disappointing update, I didn't expect bookings to be down. H2 will have to be s lot stronger to achieve expectations. Here's hoping.

[runthejoules] 03/9/2018 08:19

Ah balls wrong decision not selling first thing, I never learn to take the money and run! Still, think Microsoft could prey on weakness so may buy more if it goes below 800p.

[nimbo1] 03/9/2018 08:16

Good points ktkp. Sometimes timing of earnings release not helpful to companies like wandisco. If they deliver FY expectations then growth rates going into next financial year will be very significant.