Volex Share Discussion Threads

[dewtrader] 14/11/2013 12:24

im also for a bit of director buying today

[dewtrader] 14/11/2013 12:09

i like the sound of investecs 140p myself

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/11/2013 12:03

Some other views - nobody has a clue:

Date......Broker........Rec..Old target....New target

14 Nov 13 Investec..... Buy .140.00....... 140.00....... Reiterates
14 Nov 13 N+1 Singer... Hold 101.00....... 101.00....... Retains
14 Nov 13 Finncap...... Sell 105.00....... 90.00........ Downgrades

[warranty] 14/11/2013 12:02

Well I'm out at a smallish loss can't see this picking up in the near term and there seem to be better places for my money at the moment which have a chance of going up not down. Never learn, was considering selling before results but got it wrong again and didn't? Good luck all those still holding.

[simon gordon] 14/11/2013 11:59

She,

I just thought that Shares Mag piece was a well balanced piece of analysis.

I don't know about selling their tips, I only follow their tweets so never see them.

Some PI's on ADVFN think you should do the opposite of Shares and the IC, I don't see it as a strategy.

[tom111] 14/11/2013 11:56

Don't be fooled dewtrader

[wylecoyote] 14/11/2013 11:54

she-ra,

yes, it worked for me on TCG. The moment the shares mag tipped it, i sold short. A slow burner, but it was clearly not going to go any higher in the short term.

[dewtrader] 14/11/2013 11:47

starting to climb

im in!

[she-ra] 14/11/2013 11:44

Simon its just that doing the opposite of Shares mag has been very useful to me in the past. Admittedly that is selling anything I have they tipped. Ive never bought when they have written anything negative on something.

[cockneyrebel] 14/11/2013 11:40

Bottom today was the Dec 12 low of 82p exactly. I think that's the bottom in medium term. Might revisit, might not. Director buys help secure that imo.

if it went through 82p I'd be a bit concerned and probably sell then as that would be a major low breached.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[invisage] 14/11/2013 11:39

CR

How many times have you sold VLX since Jul 2013 ?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/11/2013 11:39

At least they finally put the results on the pitiful website. A few hours late.

Any presentation/analyst stuff?

[simon gordon] 14/11/2013 11:36

She,

I personally wouldn't touch it. The Shares Mag synopsis is pretty clear.

[she-ra] 14/11/2013 11:30

Simon Gordon - So we should all pile in then?

[simon gordon] 14/11/2013 11:16

Shares Mag - 14/11/13:

Yet given massive cuts to forecasts (finnCap has slashed its EPS estimate this year by two-thirds), limited visibility and long-haul road to recovery, it's difficult to see many reasons for investors to hang in there.

This might prove a bottom for the shares but there must also be hefty risk that trading does not improve sufficiently quickly to cap profit warnings in the immediate future. With most City number crunchers assuming no dividend at all this year, even the floor provided by yield has evaporated, leaving shareholders flying by the seat of their pants for the rest of this financial year (to end March), and maybe beyond.

hxxp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/volex-short-circuits

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/11/2013 11:12

I'm fairly sure there will be director buys today/tomorrow - but they didn't indicate much last time?

I continue to hold, nothing else to be done. Would I buy more at current prices - yes, but I did that significantly last time were in the 80s (and held on to the whole bloody lot), so no more for now.

At least we got the dividend for a while - pays the account charges to HL...

[cockneyrebel] 14/11/2013 11:08

The debt is high but in context it's looking worse today because the mkt cap has tanked. Had they delivered on earning or beaten slightly with an upbeat statement then 20p on the share rice and the debt doesn't look so bad.

It depends how fast the new board deliver here imo and how much bad stuff they are lumping into the results here too. If the new board want to look up for it and moving fast then it makes sense to dish out all the bad news here and leave the future a bit easier to achieve imo.

Will they need a fundraising? I don't know, depends how strong they can get the cashflow going imo. Anderson from TTG might be a help there I guess.
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One in the nuts today but most who had read here recently knew that these results weren't likely to be exciting (understatement :-)) and not to be too long.

I've added 50% to my holding which wasn't large compared to my total holdings but would be nice to see decent director buying to add support here. Wouldn't suggest anyone copy me in adding unless you're prepared to take further hits possibly and your holding is rather small.

Make the loss up elsewhere if you've sold now imo - come back when you've got a bit more cash and the chart starts trending up again.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/11/2013 11:08

Total disconnect between last time's narrative and this time's - not unexpected, given they were written by different management.

The last of the previous management, the short-lived David McKinney (what exactly did he do?) now binned, so a clean slate, albeit at more expense (and buried in the notes, related parties, is the point that the cash is yet to be paid for the other management pay-offs - some $1m.)

There are positives - but they are 'anticipated'. The best I can pick out is the reference to net debt - which they conciously decided to increase via working capital changes, so it was at least under their control - where they say

"With both the facility expansion plans and the restructuring cost-reduction programmes coming to an end, any future changes in net debt should reflect the underlying business perfomance. As the benefits from the Volex Transformation Plan begin to be translated into cash, we expect the net debt figure to reduce."

Conversely there is a deferred tax write-off to come, on account of not being profitable enough to utilise the assets. Accounting and book keeping, but still not a great piece of news.

As one of the early posters noted - they have not actually done anything yet to improve things. It was allowed to get very very bad and everyone from then has now gone. We are merely left to swing while somebody else has a go. So the 'progress' of the previous 12-18 months since the first signs of a problem was simply smoke and mirrors.

Not saying they won't manage things better - the non-exec appointments have all been very good and very relevant - and they clearly have a plan. Just that it may not work, it's too early to say.

I would not be surprised if TTG did indeed make a cheeky bid for not a lot of money.

[wylecoyote] 14/11/2013 11:07

Bones,

thanks for the tip...lol Yup, keep looking daily.

[she-ra] 14/11/2013 11:06

I think its a bit silly trying to engineer a takeover story when there isn't one.

The debt would put many off and the troubled situation they are in.

Im not sure what to take note of with Volex.The five year low of 18p or the five year high of 380p

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/11/2013 11:00

1883 - sounds about right. Question is - at what price?

[mr_bluesky] 14/11/2013 10:57

bones:

not invested here.

but feel for the ones that are on the back of technical analysis like CR's.

Mr Bluesky

[bones] 14/11/2013 10:55

Get a life boys. Dissing another poster is a childish way to deal with your own losses.