To add, I'd have expected the current buy back program to have been suspended if the financial worries were still in play. £6m a month is still a chunk of cash and 30m spend by program end in May is significant. |
 We're currently following the same trading trend as the other HBs. The economic factors are the same for all but VTY is different as it has the opportunity to recovery the value lost from the recent accounting fiasco. It also has the opportunity to benefit from Labour's housing plans, especially its partnerships business. Market is waiting for another proof statement from VTY to confirm that they've definitely sorted the financial irregularities. That could come by way of insider buying, that would be one sign that insiders could give to lift investor confidence. I believe the lack of buying is holding us back and the short positions remain in play. They obviously believe there's more bad news to come. VTY need to continue winning contracts and hopefully the economic factors tip in our favour with the first rate cut on Feb 6th. Doubters will argue that it doing feed through to mortgage rates but the confidence levels will rise regardless. I bought more this morning as I believe we'll see this trending north until MPC meeting and just need to see those large insider buys to give that vote of confidence. Maybe there's other corporate activity in play? Predatory approaches whilst the share price is on its arze but if that was the case you'd see the share price rising. |
* a business survey highlights UK private sector jobs are being cut at their fastest pace since 2009.
That's beyond dire. |
Job losses, slowing economy and interest rates may not be cut as quickly as many hope. |
Ftse is down 70 pts might have something to do with it |
I see the share price has fallen away a little bit this afternoon. I'm not aware of any new news about housebuilders/mortgages etc. Anyone aware of anything? |
Positive article on shares mag today but need to be subscribed to read it. Huge opportunity here but obviously not without risk. Will be interested to see how this trades up to the release of Q1 and FY24 results. |
A lot has changed in that time period !! Vistry was born in 2020 when Bovis acquired Linden Homes, the HB arm of Galliford Try. A £1bn acquisition which was followed with the Countryside merger for £1.2bn merger in 22. Completely different company and a different model from other HBs following the Countryside deal. Current m/cap sub £2bn when recent valuation at share price high was £4.7bn. A decimation of company value as a result of the accountancy issue and imo, grossly overdone. The shorts have a huge position and at some juncture this unwinds but they obviously believe there's more negativity to come. The longer the share price stays at this level, the more likely the chance of a predatory approach but I'm sitting on hands until I see more confirmation of the continued recovery play and the No 1 signal would be some huge insider buys and if that happens, time to load up and quickly !! |
I'm new to this stock - not a holder yet.
Looking at the performance over the last 5 years it peaked in 2020 at around 1400p then fell away to 510 presumably because of covid then climbed to 1300 and fell away to 550p october 2022 then climbed to 1395 August 2024 then fell away to 520p January 2025.
Seems to be a pattern. I'll keep watching for now. Sounds as if it needs new blood at senior management level and better financial management |
The market obviously doesn't believe in the VTY recovery story. Other HBs have continued their trend north since trading updates and better than expected CPI news which has lifted expectations. Our VTY is different and a large % of the rise from the 510 low was as a result of TU and the cessation of profit warnings. Why hasn't this continued its trajectory north ? Market not believing that they're out of the woods yet ? The market sentiment on the sector has improved and most HBs are 10-20% up this year but our VTY is retracing . Is the market looking for those Director buys to signal confidence ? Why wouldn't directors load up at this level ? It's obviously a concern and the lack of commitment could suggest that there's more negativity to come. Buybacks continuing and id've expected to see them pulled at this juncture if anymore skeletons we're likely to be making an appearance.Tempted to add more but prudent approach to sit back and await next signal. |
'The closed period for FTSE companies begins 30 days before the announcement of their financial results. This includes interim and year-end reports, such as quarterly and half-yearly reports.'I thought it was 60 days for FTSE 250 companies so our insiders have plenty of time to load up. Now would be a good a time as any ;) |
tanners
The newsflow has been as expected. The HBs have crashed then traded as posted 2.5-3years ago and still trading with the ranges mentioned at that time.
I went short on HBs last summer.
I also said my target was < 500p, when the share price was significantly higher. They reached c520p last week, so not far off my target.
I sold my VTY on Thurs.
As per assertion will continue to follow the company/sector, economic/political newsflow. |
https://stocks.apple.com/AYBptFlfBSa60_TSYik4H7g |
Cmon Usman, Greg and Tim. Time to load up in style. The market won't mind you selling high and loading up low. We're 20% of the bottom, it's appropriate to fill your boots :) |
LOL Hemo.....a trait I share too, us mere mortals eh!
The other classic I hear repeatedly, is the 'buy the dips' one....which is of course impossible to actually do, unless you're fortunate enough to have a broker who allows retrospective buying! |
It's a great skill to have. However, on a number of occasions, I have the opposite skill of buying at the intra day high, then having to wait just to break even. :) |
Investors will be looking for more proof statements to support recovery, one of those is insider buying. I believe that the closed period is 30 days pre any quarterly update but 2 months prior to annual account publication. I'm not 100% sure but if so, that's would mean that their bit window closes on 26/1 and the market will be looking for a vote of confidence. Would volume buying at this level be appropriate or inappropriate considering GF's dump at much higher levels although he and the largest shareholder bought in the mid £7 range ? Vistry is continuing buybacks so are currently committed to this program so it would make sense for GF and Co to lad up now ? |
Well done Sikh, my posting frequency is my business - I read loads of threads and rarely comment, but having been on ADVFN the small matter of c.25 years it never ceases to amuse me how many people are bearish on a stock and then mysteriously buy at the intra day low!
I would estimate about 80% of ADVFN posters have this oft claimed trading skill, so you're a member of a big club. |
Post 2390...due to time scales lot works are rushed...one example how often do you see scaffoldings back up say after 3 years on new build tower blocks... |
I an aware of all the variables affecting HBs but at this juncture VTY is a recovery play that has now jumped 20% in 2 days. Many investors would be overjoyed with that return, especially if Divis were in play too, that's further down the road. Here's a question, 'what would VTY price be today without the accounting scandal' ? It was trading at a PE of c10+ at its high, now at 6 if we take £300m as 2025 number. Investors are obviously believing that they can still trade at the higher P/E as they continue with their partnership strategy. You state they have to rebuild trust but investors have short memories, especially those who are trading this and a 20% demonstrates that with more to come as short positions unwind. I believe it trades in the £6-7 range in Q1, if it gets to the higher end pre next results, that's a 40% return from the bottom. As I say, short memories . |
Careful I've only made one post. I don't hold any shares. I've been considering buying some but the IC report has put me off. Thats it. Think before you post mate. |
you must be caught in a short position car1pet judging from your posts.
It is just as annoying to be caught in a short position when there is a sudden surge in the share price as being long when the price collapse.
You should have closed ahead of results.
Keep griping, we understand. |
IC has reported that Vistry is trying to complete 3 houses per week per site. Standard practice is one completion per site per week.
I bought a Linden house a few years ago and they rushed the completion and it cost them lots of money. We were put up in a nice hotel for 3 weeks and when we moved in we had 6 pages of snags to resolve. They tiled the kitchen in the wrong tiles. The underground pipework had the wrong fall and the entire underground pipework had to be dug up and relaid with the correct fall. General poor quality workmanship through rushing the completion. So beware. |
xclusive
"If we take that as a given, the only fuel available for the bear case would be poor economic conditions. As I see it, the inflationary news was better than expected that will"
Several factors impact HBs, economic conditions is just one of them.
Labour policies are inflatinary, Trump's policies look like inflationary (I say look as his policies haven't been officially confirmed)
As per my assertion, I expect BoE will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. |
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