Vistry Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 11/6/2025 19:50:12

Keep on tucking them away ;)

[jinvestsus] 11/6/2025 16:51:58

Thanks for that, that's a shame, was hoping to draw a line under it. I'm hoping (albeit wishfully) that as Vistry is moving away from the speculative model they'll be less exposed. Would rather not wait until August to find out though

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2025 16:31:13

To add to the damp Spending Review,

CMA announced today that their investigation into 7 HBs has been extended yet again. PSN, TW, VTY, BWAY etc are amongst those still being investigated.





Probe into seven major housebuilders to continue until August

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has updated the timetable for its investigation into seven major housebuilders to continue until August this year.



"The competition watchdog launched a probe last February following concerns that some housebuilders may have exchanged competitively sensitive information with other housebuilders, which could be influencing the build-out of sites and the prices of new homes. "

"The investigation was launched following a report by the CMA, which found that speculative private development – by which around 60% of houses built from 2021 to 2022 were delivered – in addition to complex and unpredictable planning rules, were responsible for the persistent underdelivery of homes."

[xclusive2] 11/6/2025 09:28:14

New investors will get involved as they realise that VTY are the best positioned to take advantage of govt housing strategy. Why did share price crash ? 3 profit earrings as a result of mismanagement of South Div accounts. This is the best HB to be investing in and if you have a longer term view, this has to be in your ISA pot :)

[volsung] 11/6/2025 08:58:56

Bought a few on the sike as per usual

[xclusive2] 11/6/2025 08:18:10

£7 about to go. Onwards and upwards:)

[xclusive2] 11/6/2025 08:04:04

Thank you for posting the link.

[jinvestsus] 11/6/2025 07:41:07

:D not a good day to be short!

[burbelly] 11/6/2025 07:01:54

Could get quite interesting quite quickly, still 4% out on loan

[jinvestsus] 11/6/2025 01:01:06

Excellent news [1]! This is about as good as it gets, double social housing investment guaranteed over 10! years. Fix of 1% + inflation on rents to open up more funds for house building.

Hopefully the market finally wakes up to how insanely undervalued Vistry is. Using 2023's adjusted figured (£296m, adjustments are reasonable, in fact the non-adjusted figures are not reasonable) as a measure of profitability without the impact from South Division issues, we are at ~7x forward PE. Now with these major tailwinds + their organic growth, you might expend adjusted earnings around ~$350-400m within the next couple of years. Other housebuilders are around a multiple of 13x at the moment, down from 15x. That gives a fair forward market cap of around 4.8b, 2.4 times the current share price!

[1]

[xclusive2] 10/6/2025 22:41:19

Hopefully we do get sone stimulus and today's action in the housing sector is obviously expecting it. NHS will be a priority, housing too but won't be long before our Rachel will be U turning on manifesto pledges and tax rises likely in Autumn. I've continued to fill the coffers with VTY as a recovery play as I believe that they are well positioned to take advantage of current govt housing strategy and hopefully 25 earnings will show that they can improve profitability and restore investor confidence.

[sikhthetech] 10/6/2025 16:05:24

Spending review tomorrow:
Look out for:

help for HBs, similar to 'help to buy' scheme.
Compulsory land purchase schemes, where land will be compulsory bought from HBs so to build more social housing and to help meet their house building targets.


I think the rise in HBs is on the back of speculation that the govn could announce a scheme similar to Help to Buy, which was introduced after GFC to help HBs.

Housing market, HBs always need incentives, govn schemes to help them. Lower stamp duty, longer term mortgages, incentives such as deposit paid, 'help to buy'.

Gov schemes to help the hyped property market, get more people to buy into the asset bubble!!

That tells you everything you need to know about the property market.

Best to trade hyped sectors.

[xclusive2] 10/6/2025 15:53:59

Nice to see the housing sector bounce, especially our Vistry. Greg has positioned a tough H1 with improvement in H2 aided by the profitable partnership business. Would be great to see an over performance in Q2 :). Short closing will help too ;)

[burbelly] 10/6/2025 09:08:39

I don’t subscribe so can’t post link but FT saying £25 billion over ten years and a new housing bank for low cost financing to builders and housing associations

[our haven] 10/6/2025 08:00:19

I see Bellway are showing increased demand for their homes this spring and lifted their target for homes.Hopefully it reflects the sector.

[burbelly] 09/6/2025 15:50:02

Thanks, she did say it would be generational change so have to trust she will get the cash

[jinvestsus] 09/6/2025 15:04:37

Well, she didn't say much but the share price had gone up anyway. Will have to wait until Wednesday!

[jinvestsus] 09/6/2025 13:33:27

Quick prediction based on scouring the news over the weekend for reports on the settlement Rayner and Reeves came to on Sunday. Apparently the capital funding (AHP) is 'generous', day to day will probably either small cut or neutral. Angela Rayner is due to speak at 2.30 today in Parliament, and there is a (presumably planted) question from her 'best friend' Rebecca Long Baily : Q9. If she will take steps through the Spending Review to increase social housing supply. (904476)

Here she will hint at or announce significant capital spending for AHP, reported in the news soon after, with Vistry share price rising accordingly!

[jinvestsus] 06/6/2025 14:12:11

Will be very interesting to see what happens Wednesday. I think its very likely MHCLG day-to-day spending is going to be cut, given the IFS analysis [1]. But there is more head room to increase the Affordable Homes Programme (currently 11.5bn 2021-2026 [2]) given Reeve's 113bn capital spending announcement, and that capital spending is not counted under the fiscal rules. Funding above 15 bn would be good and above 20bn would be great. Alternatively she could class affordable homes as infrastructure, as housing figureheads recently wrote to her advocating, opening up more private funding. I think given how much Rayner is pushing on this, Reeves will have to give something up.

This [3] is quite an interesting podcast on housing and the spending review. At one point the political correspondent mentioned that the 2 bn announced earlier in this year was now being suggested by Reeves as the full year funding, not a down-payment as promised. I couldn't find this mentioned anywhere else, but if true, that would be quite shocking if true given all the government's messaging, no wonder that Rayner is angry.

[1] hxxps://ifs.org.uk/events/look-ahead-2025-spending-review
[2] hxxps://www.centreforcities.org/blog/whats-2-billion-the-governments-latest-affordable-housing-announcement-in-context/
[3]

[burbelly] 06/6/2025 08:59:38

Housing bosses representing 1.5m social homes across England will press Rachel Reeves to reclassify affordable housing as critical infrastructure spending, amid a battle between the chancellor and Angela Rayner.

There is deep dissatisfaction with the level of funding for social homes in the spending review due next week. Rayner, the housing secretary, is one of the last remaining holdouts in negotiations with the Treasury over departmental spending settlements.

The Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government has been battling for more funding for the affordable homes programme as well as trying to preserve cash for local councils, homelessness and regional growth initiatives. Negotiations were “down to the wire”, one government source said.

[fuji99] 05/6/2025 14:15:03

Once the whole industry is destroyed (North sea oil & gas being one of them) by those who live in their own bubble, while China, Russia, the US and India are continously throwing tons of pollution into the atmosphere, we will see where this stupidity of "Net THERO" will lead us.
The problem nobody will be accountable.

[yorkie19] 04/6/2025 14:47:18

The Daily Mail correspondent has entered the chat...............

[fuji99] 04/6/2025 12:03:55

They don't spend, they only love to increase taxes and killing businesses as Ed aka Mr net ZERO, the one who knifed his own brother David for power.

[car1pet] 04/6/2025 11:50:19

If they are building 300,000 per year and they started in july2024 they must have built around 270,000 by now. Anyone know how many have been built since they came into power

[fuji99] 04/6/2025 11:39:56

NChanning: Do you know any politician who ever kept his/her promises ?
Thus why politics was, is and will always be "the science of lies and deception".
Once they reach their target, they greet those who elected them with two fingers.