Peel Hunt cut their FY25 forecast another 15%, to 290m of pre tax profit if Im reading things right |
It'd have been stinking if there hadn't been the previous warnings. It'll not move the needle in any direction. |
Well played xclusive - update draws a line in the sand from 24th Dec update. Outlook statement is v positive |
The Group expects to make year on year progress in both profit and cash generation in FY25 and will provide an update on its medium-term targets with the full year 2024 results announcement scheduled for 26 March 2025 |
Absolutely stinking update. Just what the market needed |
Confirmation that past issues are behind them along with a good outlook statement could see this climb 20 percent today. It's fallen from 14 quid to a fiver which is way way overdone. Fingers crossed for a hard bounce today. 6 quid for starters |
61% drop in little over 3 months, how come almost 2bn more for Vistry invested in inventory ?, at a time when land prices have been falling ? seem to make a habit buying stuff that is falling in value they had 0.4bn net cash, now over 0.2bn net debt,an equally worrying trend. Interested to see the update though, as I do like to read the occasional horror story. |
xclusive,
Fair comments. That's what makes a market.
Let's see what they have to say, as well as the TUs from other HBs. |
Good to see PSN holders having its gains today. ST,I disagree with market needing a long time to forgive Vistry. The market is expecting more poor news tomorrow but I believe it's going to be better than expected and if so it'll bounce as some shorts will close. I also believe 25 is going to better than the doomsayer prophecies. As stated, i believe 24/12 was the last of it, if it isn't then GF has let all shareholders down and there will be calls for his head, the fact that he's still there could be viewed as a positive as it could suggest the worst is over. If it's poor news, it gets bashed again and it really would become a buy for one of the other players. I'm sure GF and the insiders will be doing everything in their power to avoid that outcome. If it's more shoite, c'est la vie, you're only a loser if you're realising losses, I won't be. |
Imjustdandy
"Could see a sharp rise tomorrow"
It depends on whether the CEO resigns and the market believes what they saying.
I expect they will say similar to before that there's no more skeletons in the cupboard to try and calm nerves. However, it'll take a long time for market to believe them. |
I reckon the bottom is in here at 5.20. Could see a sharp rise tomorrow. Red or Black trade for the brave but downside looks in |
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=VTY:LSE#:~:text=Share%20price%20forecast%20in%20GBX,the%20last%20price%20of%20527.50.Soon know which Broker has a grip on Vistry position. |
Good to see long suffering PSN holders having a bloooo day. Will give a lift to the sector but no guarantees with Vistry but have we bottomed out and short closing in play ? |
PSN update far better than I was expecting. Let's hope that ours is too . |
inflation, poor affordability for houses, higher cost of labour, unprofitable projects, interest rates going north, so much for the capital light, partnership approach which in part amplifies the risk.
When you look at post Christmas share trading following the shambles of an update, shorter's have taken 20m against retail buyers, I would not be one to go against that strong negative opinion, just as well there were buybacks otherwise would be far worse, not that bright to be betting against the hedge funds and increase debt.
What business are you investing in now? is it one that can manage 10% margin or not and on what volume, this can easily go sub 1bn, unless there is a big turn around, and clean up the act, but with so many headwinds, that seems unlikely near term, be interesting to read update. |
Last time we touched this level was 3/4/20, almost 5 years ago ! Still can't believe we're back there. Cmon GF, a steady the ship update with a positive forecast, that'll throw the cat in :). Memories will be short if it's a better than expected update. Investors won't be waiting for proof statements from future reporting , they'll be basing their decision making on the 15/1 update. |
fuji99
welcome to socialism |
On top of all of this, Labour's budget has killed any hope of recovery in all other industries too.
This is without taking into account the slaughtering of pensioners, farmers and students.
Labour higher taxes/NI = redundencies + recruitement freezing = less spending = recession = Labour will be kicked out for another 50 years. |
The Government’s competition watchdog is extending its investigation into suspected breaches of competition law by seven major house builders.
The Competition and Markets Authority launched a probe last February after uncovering evidence during a far-reaching study into housing market delivery that indicated some house builders may be sharing commercially sensitive information with their competitors.
The original investigation period finished in December but has now been extended to May 2025 for “further investigation: including additional evidence gathering, and CMA analysis and review.”
The CMA added: “The CMA has not reached a view as to whether there is sufficient evidence of an infringement or infringements of competition law for it to issue a statement of objections to any party under investigation.”;
The firms under investigation are:
Barratt Redrow
Bellway
The Berkeley Group
Bloor Homes Limited
Persimmon
Taylor Wimpey
Vistry |
svend
"it took approximately seven years for Tesco to fully recover from the 2014 accounting scandal."
That's exactly my point. If I remember correctly, Tesco's CEO and other directors resigned when the blackhole was discovered.
Similar at CAKE.
I don't think majority of investors will believe VTY have got over their recent blackhole problems so quickly. It takes years to re-gain trust. |
Silkthetech: Yes, you were spot on with that prediction. I do not expect much to happen before the AGM, when the largest shareholders cast their vote on management progress and proceedings. In comparison, Tesco began to show signs of financial recovery by 2019. The complete resolution of legal and financial repercussions extended into 2021. Consequently, it took approximately seven years for Tesco to fully recover from the 2014 accounting scandal. |
How optimistically have they priced their recent partnership contracts to help win business..?
That's what the market may be questioning. |
As we know, Vistry have charted a different path with their partnership model and it will be interesting to see the prospects for that business with the 25 forecast. The business is there, what are the margins looking like going forward. 1.5 days of trading and no short closing as yet so the Bears obviously believe it's safe to dig in down here. Still may see closing into tomorrows close. |
Several HBs, inc VTY/PSN/TW etc are reporting TUs over next few days.
That should provide some guidance on how they believe the current trading is going and what they believe the outlook is like.
Here, it will take several TUs to be sure there's no other skeletons. Even then, the CEO should have resigned by now so investors can start to move forward.
These are now just above my target of 500p, set a couple of months ago.
sikhthetech - 15 Nov 2024 - 16:38:53
<...>
I might take a punt < 500p on the hope that the CEO does resign and the company starts to re-build confidence. |
A cheap acquisition would be disastrous so hopefully our larger holders are ready to dive in post closed period. The HBs have been battered over last 3 years, only gotta look at the charts !! Vistry was the golden child, bucking the trend with its partnering strategy and would've continued that trend but for the accounting scandal as that's what it is. Can only invest based on facts and if the company misleads the investor base then they pay the price. Currently at 35% of its value from £14 high, that's disastrous but the TU will give us the clarity we need to make decisions, good, bad or indifferent. I still maintain that 24/12 news dump was the last bite of the shoite sandwich and continued buy backs show that the cash position isn't disastrous. I promised I'd sit on hands pre news but I e taken another chunk this am hoping that the bad news is over and outlook is better than many expect. |
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