Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 13/12/2021 11:32

Read the VNH monthly earlier, not opened the VOF one yet. Lego is investing $1b in a carbon neutral factory in the country, which will spill over into the wider economy.

[dickbush] 13/12/2021 08:59

I agree. Normally, foreign investors are in at the top and out at the bottom. My only concern with Vietnam is that this bull market has dragged in many local, first time investors who think that the stock market is a one-way bet. Sooner or later there will be tears and the sound of shoulda, woulda, coulda. For my part, I hope it's later.

[lageraemia] 10/12/2021 16:40

That's a strong contrarian indicator there Mr Bush!!

[dickbush] 10/12/2021 10:13

Foreign investors have been dumping Vietnam stocks all year, despite a surge to record highs. Competition from popular retail stocks like Tesla Inc. and cryptocurrencies looks like part of the reason why.

Korean retail investors — who made up 16% of net foreign inflows between 2017 and 2019 — are among those selling out, offloading a net $166 million worth of shares so far this year, according to data from the Korea Securities Depository. Their appetite for risk has shifted from emerging markets to the U.S., thanks to the strong returns in speculative assets there, analysts say.

Overseas investors have posted outflows in all but one month this year, despite the benchmark VN Index’s 33% gain making it the top performer in Southeast Asia. In total, they have sold a record $2.7 billion worth of shares in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

[hpcg] 08/12/2021 13:13

Nice retrace to have traded around, though maintaining a core holding the primary approach here. Also good for the buybacks, which will keep eating the float. Ironically it looks like they need the liquidity of some risk off moves to enter the market. 100k lots out of 165 million shares is obviously small beer, though the share count in May was over 170 million and 1 year ago almost 171 million, so it isn't nothing.

6 March 2019 - 185.5 million
10 August 2018: 192.9 million
24 November 2017: 198.363 million

Over time these are substantial and tangible buybacks that are meaningfully making holders richer. London investors are known for being a bit backwards with regard to buybacks versus dividends, but there are both here. I honestly hope the discount hangs around for a long time so that this compounding can long continue.

[dickbush] 08/12/2021 08:34

Fair enough, 31337.

The difference between the WHO and the local newspapers- who are getting their numbers from government sources- has the potential for a trading opportunity.

I added a few more last night although this is a forever holding, not a trade. I see we are still trading at a greater discount than VEIL.

FYI. Note the market's valuation/GDP ratio. Obviously, there are a lot of SOE's yet to be privatised.

[steve73] 08/12/2021 04:40

This won't be helping..

[31337 c0d3r] 08/12/2021 00:21

The information comes from the WHO website. The first spike of 39k cases on 24th Nov is still there, but the second spike of 68k has disappeared and seems to have been incorporated into other dates which were previously zero.

These huge spikes on the WHO site coincided with otherwise inexplicable drops in VOF and VEIL. The question wasn't whether the WHO site is showing wrong information. The question was what caused the market to drop, and if some investors and market makers are monitoring the WHO stats then I think this is the most likely explanation.

[dickbush] 06/12/2021 08:08

I've been putting their daily numbers into excel since April 2020 and I've seen a few catch-ups, but I have not seen a catch-up number since the 27 November. That was just a few thousand. My total number of infections since the outbreak is exactly the same as the number published in the Vietnamese newspapers and Worldometers which covers every country. I think you've got wrong information.

Down another 2% today. All I can see is



and



Until I see some really awful news, I'm putting this down to foreign selling-which has been fairly consistent-and locals, who are new to investment, finding out that the stock market is not a one-way bet.

[31337 c0d3r] 03/12/2021 11:34

Well the only thing I noticed, the Covid stats which are around 12,000 daily, spiked to 68,000. It seems these were added retrospectively. I assume this is why VOF dropped 3.5% yesterday. This is the second time recently the stats have done that and the previous time VOF and VEIL also fell inexplicably just before close despite NAV and VNI rising, as exotic mentioned in post 1695 on 24 Nov. Could just be coincidental.

[dickbush] 03/12/2021 07:52

Vietnam market was clobbered today, down 2.6% as I write. Aside from its failure to climb above 1,500 early on-after a strong Wall Street-I can't find any local news to justify it. Anyone seen any significant news?

This, perhaps: concern about inflation, and production growth being hampered by labour shortages. (sounds familiar).

[exotic] 24/11/2021 19:20

Bit of a surprise to see VOF and VEIL close down -0.6% and -0.7% respectively today, while both NAVs increased, the VNI closed up +1.13% the previous session and +1.72% last night, setting another new stock market all-time-high. Nothing to sweat over of course; it's a long journey.

[dickbush] 24/11/2021 11:35

This may explain the performance over the past two days.

[dickbush] 16/11/2021 09:14

I'm not complaining, but after today's market decline of 0.7% I'm surprised that VOF is unchanged following yesterday's big rise. Assuming market performance today, VOF's discount to NAV is 15.5%.

[hydrogen economy] 15/11/2021 13:20

That rise is more impressive noting that the dollar has risen ~5% against the USDX index over 12 months. The VND is at the highest level vs USD since 2016.

Historically the VND has always got weaker, this year saw the first sustained rise against the dollar since the current Dong was adopted nationally in 1978. The Government intervene to manage the currency, trying to balance competitive exports and inflation, particularly energy and major capital goods. Higher inflation, especially in energy may have tipped that policy balance.

The US investigation of currency manipulation may be a factor, they removed the finding but the threat still stands and VN wants to keep on the right side of USA.

Several SEA currencies were strong through the early 2000s as their economies grew rapidly, (although some have since weakened). Arguably VND is due a similar period of strength, which should be supportive due to translation of VN Assets to GBP.

[dickbush] 15/11/2021 09:28

Not the most important variable for the NAV but I see the Dong has gained 2.3% versus the Dollar over the past 12 months. That's pretty impressive considering the strength of the trade weighted Dollar. More importantly, with commodities, generally, priced in Dollars, that should help reduce domestic inflation somewhat.

I haven't seen any details but I keep reading that the government is preparing fiscal stimulus. The size, I guess, will depend on the extent of the economic rebound in the 4th qtr.

[exotic] 08/11/2021 19:10

Also Peter Hames, Non-Executive Director, today bought another £41,822 worth.

Interestingly, just before his purchase I see another 3 large transactions of the following values:
£130,250
£260,500
£390,750

[shaker44] 08/11/2021 09:49

Exactly. I am certainly not 2nd guessing the vn govt. Let the market decide

[dickbush] 08/11/2021 09:13

Infections have doubled in the last 16 days, but the deaths in the last week are 450.

The switch to emphasising the economic recovery appears to be what the market, at least, wants to see, as judged by its recent recovery and another all-time high again today.

[shaker44] 05/11/2021 13:25

I guess this only matters if you plan to sell should the govt adopt a covid strategy you disagree with?

[exotic] 05/11/2021 12:37

Well, I agree with all of the above.

The strict lockdown brought cases right down, and since it ended there's a feature on the WHO chart. My question is really aimed at anyone in Vietnam, does the gov intend to implement another or let vaccines be the way out, as in the UK?



See the 'Daily' view

[hpcg] 05/11/2021 10:04

It is also a fantastic hedge versus a plummet in Sterling, an event that is certainly not out of the question.

[lageraemia] 05/11/2021 10:01

I must say I'm really comfortable with holding VOF right now.....

Vietnam is aurguably a much lower risk geopolitically than the 'main' markets, and demographically its a diamond, with little to drive its younger population to emmigrate.

The market is on a sensible PE, they produce things and there's a big discount to NAV for VOF.

Holding for the win and adding on dips!