Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2021 13:57

There is no sign of any herd immunity, reports of reinfections are now widespread.


I don't know where that exactly leaves us, but it's not the best development.

[dpmcq] 24/8/2021 13:26

Shaker44
I was not referencing the general Market or index just pointing out the difficulties Vietnam and most other countries face with an extremely contagious pathogen.
Lives are far more important than money and we are all a long way from a freedom of Covid and the return of what used to be normal.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2021 12:57

he, much appreciated and take care.

[shaker44] 24/8/2021 11:38

All this stuff can be read by just googling vn news if you are really interested . VN govt will get on top of this. They are very serious and expert in their approach and the vn index reaction is your best indicator of fear factors for investors.

[dpmcq] 24/8/2021 10:27

Thank you for the detailed update Hydrogen economy.
As I mentioned back in May, The Delta (India) variant is very..very transmittable.
The only way to stop your hospitals being totally overwhelmed if full lockdown.
This variant causes rapid spikes in cases and appears to make much younger people very ill.
The other issue facing you there is getting double jabs.
A single shot is proving not very effective here and even double vaccinated people are catching Covid, producing full viral load and transmitting it to others.
The positive is double vaccinated in general do not get ill enough to need hospitalisation.
Also, as you pointed out booster programs here, in the US and Europe will hamper roll out around the world in poorer countries, something WHO are trying to battle against and encourage more vaccine shared around the globe.
Stay safe, all the best

[hydrogen economy] 24/8/2021 09:13

HCMC went into full lockdown on Monday although the rules and which districts are affected is unclear and seemed to change by the hour. Unfortunately with 2 days to stock up there were big crowds at shops at the weekend, no doubt a major spreader event.

There is definitely economic damage, many/most factories, companies, shops etc are shut down. Some have tried to continue with staff locked in living on site but once any infection happens pretty much all get it.

The army are here, the have a brief to deliver food. Police have been enforcing lockdown and can give out up to 3m VND ($150) fines for people without masks or on the street without legitimate reason, I don't think the army are needed for that.
I've seen pictures of the Army in full camouflage gear, helmets and faceshields brandishing bags from a local store selling imported food emblazoned in English with "Eat Well, Laugh Lots, Love Much". Not really intimidating.

The hospital situation is bad in HCMC, all ICU facilities overloaded, main and field hospitals also full. Patients with non covid critical illness are being turned away, some have died as a result.

Lockdown is just a holding pattern to allow vaccination. Vietnam have picked up vaccination rates, reaching up to 1m per day but keep having to back off due to lack of supply with slow deliveries from COVAX and some donor nations. US is biggest donor with 5 m moderna, UK, France Poland have donated AZ. Hopefully Kamala Harris will promise more when she is in Hanoi, but the US booster program may limit that. HCMC is prioritized and has administered over 5m doses, the plan is to fully vaccinate all adults by 15th Sept. Unfortunately HCMC bought 5m Sinopharm for distribution in the city, 2m delivered, not a popular decision, people don't think it is effective and worry about safety so they now call it Vero cell and hope no one notices where it came from.

[essentialinvestor] 23/8/2021 13:32

Andy, if you are around any view from the heart of events?.

Hope you are keeping well.

[essentialinvestor] 23/8/2021 11:37

Troops on the streets in the capital enforcing the lockdown, starting to turn nasty.

[ny boy] 18/8/2021 19:10

This has proved a nice buy from last August, stay long for years imo

[ceaserxzy] 18/8/2021 19:07

Wonder why the company not buy some back at the current market price which is about 10% cheaper than what they will tender.

[dickbush] 09/8/2021 15:34

Assuming similar to market performance today, VOF is on a 19% discount to NAV at £4.68

[hpcg] 06/8/2021 15:03

I prefer buybacks. Tenders are for sellers but one has to participate if above the share price and at NAV otherwise it is giving the discount away.

[digitaria] 06/8/2021 10:59

Considering the VOF, VEIL and VNH ITs, VOF today has the largest discount, which is not the usual situation historically. I wonder if the managers might at some point consider a similar action to those of VNH.

[kenmitch] 04/8/2021 09:33

aria

It’s a must to read news updates from the shares and Investment Trusts we hold!

E.g yesterday’s news about the VNH tender offer.

EDIT.

Oops! Apologies arja. For some weird reason I thought this was the VNH bb and hence the assumption that you hadn’t read the tender offer news.

[31337 c0d3r] 04/8/2021 08:08

Related to the wide NAV discounts which triggered a tender offer on VNH

[arja] 04/8/2021 07:38

not sure why the big move yesterday as vietnam indices only up slightly !

[exotic] 28/7/2021 14:22

NAVs as announced this morning:

VEIL
£7.72 p/s
Discount: 17.86%

VNH
£3.101 p/s
Discount: 25.04%

VOF
£5.43 p/s
Discount: 16.66%


Vietnam Index closed slightly up in each of the last 3 trading sessions, but with Covid cases and mortality still rising.

[shaker44] 19/7/2021 09:20

Stay safe. I know how hard it is just now in unvaxxed s e asian big cities. They will get on top but it will take time and disruption.
Fully agree with your final sentence.
The raw metric of new cases is not very useful now. Hospitalisations and deaths far more neaningful

[hydrogen economy] 19/7/2021 08:37

Now difficult in HCMC, the authorities are pretty stretched with the number of cases and locations locked down (including mine). The population density in the city and transmissibility of the delta makes it tough. Hard to know if cases can be contained or whether we are in for what UK/US have seen. There is still determination to contain the outbreak and I think they probably can but it will likely get worse before it gets better.

Vaccines are arriving but it will be months before any significant coverage and number of cases is not helping distribution. That said, although many companies are currently affected it is hard to see long term prospects being significantly hurt so expect a buying opportunity.

[shaker44] 19/7/2021 07:34

And the uk numbers with about 2/3 VN population are??

[amt] 19/7/2021 06:40

Yes Covid case numbers increasing rapidly. Even they don't seem to be able to keep a lid on it.

[exotic] 16/7/2021 08:11

amt yes that sounds about right.

4 days ago new Covid cases breached 2,000 for the first time, then yesterday almost 3,000 already.

Yet VNINDEX currently up for the second day in a row.

[amt] 16/7/2021 07:53

Yes Hydrogen.
Despite the Delta Variant they seem to be very bullish though.
Now 47% growth in EPS for top 60 companies, before it was up to 40% and I recall that doom and gloom guy who used to post here, told us he fell about laughing when he saw growth forecasts of 25% to 40%. He won't be laughing now.
It might be that if the Coronovirus gets worse the stock market will go up as it did in Western Europe. Its counterintuitive I know but that's what happened in most parts of the World.

[hydrogen economy] 16/7/2021 07:18

A couple of interesting reports from Dragon Capital and HSBC, unsurprisingly both more caution about the near term.


hxxps://vietnamnews.vn/economy/993640/new-money-into-stock-market-slows-down-economy-growth-may-miss-expectations-dragon-capital.html


hxxps://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/economy/hsbc-sees-challenges-to-vietnam-economy-in-h2-4312647.html

[shaker44] 15/7/2021 04:54

VN index down just 0.2% right now today