Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 01/9/2021 18:32

Based on the 4 RNS' this afternoon We should see the discount narrowing.

[shaker44] 01/9/2021 11:17

Interesting to see if vnh tender shrinks its discount later this month. Nice gain for its 2 major shareholders assuming they tendered like most other holders

[dickbush] 01/9/2021 10:50

Assuming in-line with the market performance today, the shares are selling on a 21.6% discount at £4.50. VEIL'S are on a 15.0% discount. Odd.

VNH is also on a 15.0% discount.

[essentialinvestor] 25/8/2021 16:26

The above also has some financial commentary.


Had a small amount today with a view to adding lower, if available. Luck to holders

[shaker44] 25/8/2021 09:16

I agree with all of the above.
We are schooled in the belief that communism is bad but it ain't necessarily so.
So called democracies, such as thailand, are actually military dictatorships with rigged constitutions to keep incumbents in power.
I regard Vietnam as a sweet spot for investors, with a clear sighted government which drives its agenda forward, attracting foreign investment, and companies.
Even allowing for current covid issues, economic growth is expected to be higher than that achieved by most other nations

[hydrogen economy] 25/8/2021 08:51

Johnwig

Considering political complexion and authoritarianism, the Government risk for Vietnam is generally considered by foreign companies as very low relative to most emerging markets (and some developed markets). The CP ensures policy continuity compared with many countries in the region like Thailand, Phillipines, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar. Several of these could teach Vietnam something about authoritarian rule.

Vietnam started well behind most of SEA thanks to US sanctions and pre 1989 policies, but have made rapid improvements in poverty, education and health. Since 1989 the government has been committed to the private sector and selling SOEs albeit with glacial bureaucracy.

If the Vietnam CP ever gave way to a pluralistic democracy, I doubt it would lead to a much more favourable environment for long term foreign investment and guess it would not be long before the military stepped in. They don't need to now as they have such a big say in the CP.

[hpcg] 24/8/2021 17:47

Companies are long duration assets and we've seen in developed markets that deep pocketed investors have looked through C19. On a macro level it looks like Vietnam is coping pretty well all things considered. NAV and share price are telling us that for now at least investors remain committed.

[shaker44] 24/8/2021 16:08

At last a return to investment matters. Thank you. I concur with your views. If not I would sell and move on.

[johnwig] 24/8/2021 16:02

Here's my take on all this. VEIL and VOF have been super shares for me. Some I had before Covid, others, most, I bought after March last year. Of course Covid has had a horrendous effect on everbody's life, and stock exchange movements have been extremely disturbing. However, specifically with Vietnam investment trusts, what we have is a secular investment in the fortunes of one country. This is a country rising up from some horrific circumstances. Don't forget that the market is still classified as a Frontier Market.

There are several assumptions that we have to make, not least that the securities held in both trusts represent a broad spectrum of the country's fortunes, its economy as a whole, and that the character of its people is as generally portrayed: worky and ingenious. There are other assumptions too.

However, if you can be hard-headed and hard-hearted, long-term in purely investment terms Covid should have very little effect on VOF and VEIL. It's fruitless to bicker about daily statistics. They don't in this context really matter. We have to assume that Covid will pass eventually for the whole world and that the rewards for hard work and ingenuity will accrue. A classic investment case.

I have deliberately not mentioned the political complexion of the current regime. For many its basically authoritarian bent is anathema. I share some fastidiousness. My own view, for what it's worth, is that the veritable material success of its people will soften regime attitudes. It's already happening...

[dpmcq] 24/8/2021 15:41

I have some similar experiences EssentailInvestor, as I guess do most.
The ICU unit really is a very frightening place for patients in there with Covid.
I am sure your wife has some very harrowing experiences with Covid patients.

People should not underestimate Covid as left uncheck it will and has killed hundreds of thousands of people worldwide. It is critical vaccines are shared around the world sooner rather than later. It takes one variant to be resistant to current vaccines and we are all back to square one....new pandemic.

I to hope 2022 brings us new medicines.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2021 15:17

My better half works in frontline healthcare and a number of friends work in
hospitals in both Surrey and the SE, it's been apparent for months that reinfections are happening.

Hopefully 2022 will bring new treatment options.
We may reach a stage where antivirals in tablet form can be prescribed
on diagnosis as an adjunct to vaccinations.

My partner has been with 7 people who have passed from COVID and it's not a nice way to go, however need to keep some perspective. Sepsis kills approx 50,000 in the UK alone each year, and hardly ever hits the headlines.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2021 14:06

I don't need to have a pop at other posters - good fortune.

[shaker44] 24/8/2021 14:00

Dpmcq: I doubt that is news to anyone on the planet but I am sure you were trying to be helpful. So, thank you.
Essential investor (what a misnomer) filtered long since, happily.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2021 13:57

There is no sign of any herd immunity, reports of reinfections are now widespread.


I don't know where that exactly leaves us, but it's not the best development.

[dpmcq] 24/8/2021 13:26

Shaker44
I was not referencing the general Market or index just pointing out the difficulties Vietnam and most other countries face with an extremely contagious pathogen.
Lives are far more important than money and we are all a long way from a freedom of Covid and the return of what used to be normal.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2021 12:57

he, much appreciated and take care.

[shaker44] 24/8/2021 11:38

All this stuff can be read by just googling vn news if you are really interested . VN govt will get on top of this. They are very serious and expert in their approach and the vn index reaction is your best indicator of fear factors for investors.

[dpmcq] 24/8/2021 10:27

Thank you for the detailed update Hydrogen economy.
As I mentioned back in May, The Delta (India) variant is very..very transmittable.
The only way to stop your hospitals being totally overwhelmed if full lockdown.
This variant causes rapid spikes in cases and appears to make much younger people very ill.
The other issue facing you there is getting double jabs.
A single shot is proving not very effective here and even double vaccinated people are catching Covid, producing full viral load and transmitting it to others.
The positive is double vaccinated in general do not get ill enough to need hospitalisation.
Also, as you pointed out booster programs here, in the US and Europe will hamper roll out around the world in poorer countries, something WHO are trying to battle against and encourage more vaccine shared around the globe.
Stay safe, all the best

[hydrogen economy] 24/8/2021 09:13

HCMC went into full lockdown on Monday although the rules and which districts are affected is unclear and seemed to change by the hour. Unfortunately with 2 days to stock up there were big crowds at shops at the weekend, no doubt a major spreader event.

There is definitely economic damage, many/most factories, companies, shops etc are shut down. Some have tried to continue with staff locked in living on site but once any infection happens pretty much all get it.

The army are here, the have a brief to deliver food. Police have been enforcing lockdown and can give out up to 3m VND ($150) fines for people without masks or on the street without legitimate reason, I don't think the army are needed for that.
I've seen pictures of the Army in full camouflage gear, helmets and faceshields brandishing bags from a local store selling imported food emblazoned in English with "Eat Well, Laugh Lots, Love Much". Not really intimidating.

The hospital situation is bad in HCMC, all ICU facilities overloaded, main and field hospitals also full. Patients with non covid critical illness are being turned away, some have died as a result.

Lockdown is just a holding pattern to allow vaccination. Vietnam have picked up vaccination rates, reaching up to 1m per day but keep having to back off due to lack of supply with slow deliveries from COVAX and some donor nations. US is biggest donor with 5 m moderna, UK, France Poland have donated AZ. Hopefully Kamala Harris will promise more when she is in Hanoi, but the US booster program may limit that. HCMC is prioritized and has administered over 5m doses, the plan is to fully vaccinate all adults by 15th Sept. Unfortunately HCMC bought 5m Sinopharm for distribution in the city, 2m delivered, not a popular decision, people don't think it is effective and worry about safety so they now call it Vero cell and hope no one notices where it came from.

[essentialinvestor] 23/8/2021 13:32

Andy, if you are around any view from the heart of events?.

Hope you are keeping well.

[essentialinvestor] 23/8/2021 11:37

Troops on the streets in the capital enforcing the lockdown, starting to turn nasty.

[ny boy] 18/8/2021 19:10

This has proved a nice buy from last August, stay long for years imo

[ceaserxzy] 18/8/2021 19:07

Wonder why the company not buy some back at the current market price which is about 10% cheaper than what they will tender.

[dickbush] 09/8/2021 15:34

Assuming similar to market performance today, VOF is on a 19% discount to NAV at £4.68