Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[hydrogen economy] 01/6/2021 14:47

The lift up in NAV yesterday may be due to Hao Phat Group. Their dividend was paid on 31st May, 35% total, 20% as shares. VOF HPG holding is over 20% so that gave quite a lift. The very high dividend reflects a big rise in production whilst margins have risen a lot. They also made a significant acquisition of an Australian iron ore mine. Iron ore prices have been at record highs so unclear if that will be a good purchase. Vietnamese companies have in the past made some ill-advised overseas investments, hopefully this will not turn out the same.

The HPG holding is very high as the share price has tripled in the last 12 months, I guess VOF will have limits on single holding so may offload some.

[andyj] 01/6/2021 14:41

And to Essential Investor and Hydrogen Economy, good luck in your investment. See you on other boards.

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2021 14:35

People who are content do not usually need to have a pop at others.

To me that strongly signifies someone who is unhappy with some aspects of their own lives, be it financial or otherwise.

Will leave it at that.

[shaker44] 01/6/2021 14:06

Seems you shout loud and often so happy to take your word on that

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2021 13:41

You don't know his personal circumstances.


There is an old City saying - success is quiet.


Those who shout loudest are usually small fry.

[shaker44] 01/6/2021 13:35

Andy highlighted how risky it all seemed to him then sat on his hands while the rest of us made serious money

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2021 13:24

No need to throw around phrases like...any normal person.

Andy highlighted this and other funds, long before the crowd turned up here.

Would hope he's done very nicely as a result.

[exotic] 01/6/2021 12:57

And VEIL up 3.1% today for some reason. VOF positioned to break out.

All Vietnam indices closed higher again.

VOF, VEIL, and VNH all report a jump in NAVs.

Anyone who sold VOF around £3 based on their local knowledge needs to understand a couple of things.

1. Just because you have a local advantage doesn't guarantee that your investment decision will be right.

2. Industries have learnt ways of thriving under Covid restrictions. So no matter how bad the infection rate, it will never be anywhere near as bad for business as it was during the first wave.

Any normal person would have accepted they made a mistake and either bought back or moved on.

[shaker44] 01/6/2021 12:34

Check out vnh too

[amt] 01/6/2021 11:52

Yes Kenmitch spot on.
I notice a big jump in nav this morning.
Discount is 16%.
I expect this to go when Vietnam becomes mainstream investing.

[kenmitch] 01/6/2021 10:32

I agree amt. Anyway predicting markets is a mugs game as so often they go up when we think they will go down and vice versa. Who could have predicted a worldwide bull market when the market crashed last year? The Vietnam Fund Managers are very good with their market comments so listen to them ahead of posters on any website with very iffy posting record! This bull market could continue for a good while yet, or end soon. Who knows? None of us until the event.

[amt] 01/6/2021 10:25

What nonsense.
A bubble is when prices are far above historical averages not just because prices have gone up.
A market p/e of 18 with EPS growth between 25 to 40% is cheap.
If the market doubled from here it would be similar to Indian valuations.

[andyj] 01/6/2021 09:27

I see a chart that has risen 85% in a year. I see a chart that shows a 50% increase from before the pandemic. I see a bubble.

[arja] 01/6/2021 07:14

of course the stronger pound is a negative for the NAV and it is stronger than it was at friday's close. Discount to NAV is still quite big .

[arja] 01/6/2021 06:51

andyj,
I think the chart tells the story and what is likely to happen and it has a lovely
uptrending chart and close to being a NOR situation . Even the latest covid cases has not stopped the upward momentum in last day or so and vietnam indices up again today so far .

[amt] 01/6/2021 06:20

So what level do you think EPS will grow then ?

[andyj] 01/6/2021 05:49

Thumbs down for a government update? Preemptive action is how Vietnam controls the virus and it works, no need to panic yet. And today some promising news, three of the clusters in HCMC are now contained and they found the source of infection for the main one. Hopefully only the short sharp lockdown the market is pricing in.https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210601/200-coronavirus-cases-traced-to-religious-mission-in-ho-chi-minh-city-health-dept/61249.html?fbclid=IwAR2Dd-DV5n9GqrulBfU_ZGnATN7ScunVRvwNwEjk2duTq-HJE0Jq8fD-9nc

[andyj] 31/5/2021 07:49

Not a hunch. The reality of the current situation here.https://e.vnexpress.net/photo/news/covid-desolates-bustling-saigon-4286616.html

[amt] 31/5/2021 06:58

The range of EPS growth I have read from various analysts range ftom 25% to 40% so I dont think you can dismiss it on a hunch.

[andyj] 30/5/2021 16:18

I can assure you I do not need to read brokers forecasts to know that EPS growth will not be 40%. I hope they do, but the current reality suggests not.https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210530/ho-chi-minh-city-reinstates-social-distancing-measures-amidst-serious-covid19-outbreak/61224.html?fbclid=IwAR38mhxKMb1gLv5cZTaCKRr0jtW38QP6nMeAq1V3m3ikVi9oGW0c7QrqE_0

[shaker44] 29/5/2021 09:06

I can't think of a country that tackles this better than VN, outside China. Impressive

[dpmcq] 29/5/2021 08:53

good article shaker44, I see the India variant is one of the detected.
That will really need strict measures to stop the spread as we are now seeing in the UK it is starting to get a foothold as cases are doubling very quickly with Bolton currently the highest cases per 100,000.
This variant is at least the equal of the Kent variant that became the most dominant in Europe.
Current science points to two shots (ones currently given in UK) as being effective with only one shot giving 30-40% effectiveness.
Local Lockdowns or strict social distancing will be the only way to stop it transmitting very quickly.

[amt] 29/5/2021 08:13

Interesting article. There is encouraging data that the more transmissible variants are less deadly. This is normally what happens in pandemics and maybe we are at the beginning of the end. We will no longer focus on the spread but on how deadly it is.

[shaker44] 29/5/2021 06:56

Those of you in to Vietnam covid news may find this interesting: hxxps://www.nationthailand.com/international/40001430