Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 01/1/2022 19:56

China and especially as imposed on Hong Kong is now handling covid quite badly. HK is near impossible to fly in or out off with the quarantine regulations. I can see more and more companies looking south for at least some of their production and or supply chain.

[dickbush] 30/12/2021 13:09

Infections reported as 17,000, a new record (ex-late reported), but I make the difference with yesterday as 19,868. Even without the late reported the first light of a downtrend was extinguished with this report.

More than 149.3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered nationwide.

4th qtr GDP reported as having increased 5.22%.

[shaker44] 29/12/2021 14:16

I think the market has absorbed covid risk way back and will not be moved unless a dramatic persistent change occurs. Daily ripples are just that.
Of more interest is the decline in economic growth to 2.58%

[dickbush] 29/12/2021 13:28

I'm trying to be helpful, shaker.

FWIW, expressing an opinion rather than stating facts, I think establishing a downtrend in infections-not yet proven-would be just what's required for further progress by the market, all other things being equal.

[shaker44] 29/12/2021 12:05

All priced in. Nothing of note. Anyone who cares can simply google

[dickbush] 29/12/2021 11:43

13,889 infections today. I haven't seen the number of deaths yet. Assuming we aren't going to see a hefty late reporting number down the road, Vietnam may, finally, be in a downtrend. Note, though, that Hanoi has taken over the lead in infections.

[31337 c0d3r] 16/12/2021 19:14

BTW, did anyone notice the last paragraph of the monthly investor report where the Economist magazine implied Vietnam was an Emerging Market.

[31337 c0d3r] 16/12/2021 19:10

I guess they are at the mercy of whoever is providing the figures. The trends seem clear at least.

I would have expected less mortality with current case numbers though, given the ramped up vaccination programme.

[dickbush] 16/12/2021 17:51

31337, Vietnam reported 15,720 infections today but I make the difference between today's running total and yesterday's as 34,062 i.e. a late reporting of 18,792. I check three local newspapers and none have mentioned it.

[dickbush] 13/12/2021 13:29

From the monthly:

Domestic retail investors continued to drive market performance with a record-high of over 220,000 new securities account openings in November, a surge of 70% compared to the previous month. On a year-to-date basis, 1.3 million new accounts were opened, which is 3.3 times higher than the whole of 2020. Consequently, the average daily trading value (ADTV) for November surged 46% month-on-month to a record high of USD1.8 billion per day; year-to-date ADTV for 11M21 reached USD1.1 billion, which is almost 4 times higher than the same period last year.

[hpcg] 13/12/2021 11:32

Read the VNH monthly earlier, not opened the VOF one yet. Lego is investing $1b in a carbon neutral factory in the country, which will spill over into the wider economy.

[dickbush] 13/12/2021 08:59

I agree. Normally, foreign investors are in at the top and out at the bottom. My only concern with Vietnam is that this bull market has dragged in many local, first time investors who think that the stock market is a one-way bet. Sooner or later there will be tears and the sound of shoulda, woulda, coulda. For my part, I hope it's later.

[lageraemia] 10/12/2021 16:40

That's a strong contrarian indicator there Mr Bush!!

[dickbush] 10/12/2021 10:13

Foreign investors have been dumping Vietnam stocks all year, despite a surge to record highs. Competition from popular retail stocks like Tesla Inc. and cryptocurrencies looks like part of the reason why.

Korean retail investors — who made up 16% of net foreign inflows between 2017 and 2019 — are among those selling out, offloading a net $166 million worth of shares so far this year, according to data from the Korea Securities Depository. Their appetite for risk has shifted from emerging markets to the U.S., thanks to the strong returns in speculative assets there, analysts say.

Overseas investors have posted outflows in all but one month this year, despite the benchmark VN Index’s 33% gain making it the top performer in Southeast Asia. In total, they have sold a record $2.7 billion worth of shares in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

[hpcg] 08/12/2021 13:13

Nice retrace to have traded around, though maintaining a core holding the primary approach here. Also good for the buybacks, which will keep eating the float. Ironically it looks like they need the liquidity of some risk off moves to enter the market. 100k lots out of 165 million shares is obviously small beer, though the share count in May was over 170 million and 1 year ago almost 171 million, so it isn't nothing.

6 March 2019 - 185.5 million
10 August 2018: 192.9 million
24 November 2017: 198.363 million

Over time these are substantial and tangible buybacks that are meaningfully making holders richer. London investors are known for being a bit backwards with regard to buybacks versus dividends, but there are both here. I honestly hope the discount hangs around for a long time so that this compounding can long continue.

[dickbush] 08/12/2021 08:34

Fair enough, 31337.

The difference between the WHO and the local newspapers- who are getting their numbers from government sources- has the potential for a trading opportunity.

I added a few more last night although this is a forever holding, not a trade. I see we are still trading at a greater discount than VEIL.

FYI. Note the market's valuation/GDP ratio. Obviously, there are a lot of SOE's yet to be privatised.

[steve73] 08/12/2021 04:40

This won't be helping..

[31337 c0d3r] 08/12/2021 00:21

The information comes from the WHO website. The first spike of 39k cases on 24th Nov is still there, but the second spike of 68k has disappeared and seems to have been incorporated into other dates which were previously zero.

These huge spikes on the WHO site coincided with otherwise inexplicable drops in VOF and VEIL. The question wasn't whether the WHO site is showing wrong information. The question was what caused the market to drop, and if some investors and market makers are monitoring the WHO stats then I think this is the most likely explanation.

[dickbush] 06/12/2021 08:08

I've been putting their daily numbers into excel since April 2020 and I've seen a few catch-ups, but I have not seen a catch-up number since the 27 November. That was just a few thousand. My total number of infections since the outbreak is exactly the same as the number published in the Vietnamese newspapers and Worldometers which covers every country. I think you've got wrong information.

Down another 2% today. All I can see is



and



Until I see some really awful news, I'm putting this down to foreign selling-which has been fairly consistent-and locals, who are new to investment, finding out that the stock market is not a one-way bet.

[31337 c0d3r] 03/12/2021 11:34

Well the only thing I noticed, the Covid stats which are around 12,000 daily, spiked to 68,000. It seems these were added retrospectively. I assume this is why VOF dropped 3.5% yesterday. This is the second time recently the stats have done that and the previous time VOF and VEIL also fell inexplicably just before close despite NAV and VNI rising, as exotic mentioned in post 1695 on 24 Nov. Could just be coincidental.

[dickbush] 03/12/2021 07:52

Vietnam market was clobbered today, down 2.6% as I write. Aside from its failure to climb above 1,500 early on-after a strong Wall Street-I can't find any local news to justify it. Anyone seen any significant news?

This, perhaps: concern about inflation, and production growth being hampered by labour shortages. (sounds familiar).

[exotic] 24/11/2021 19:20

Bit of a surprise to see VOF and VEIL close down -0.6% and -0.7% respectively today, while both NAVs increased, the VNI closed up +1.13% the previous session and +1.72% last night, setting another new stock market all-time-high. Nothing to sweat over of course; it's a long journey.