Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 01/6/2021 09:27

I see a chart that has risen 85% in a year. I see a chart that shows a 50% increase from before the pandemic. I see a bubble.

[arja] 01/6/2021 07:14

of course the stronger pound is a negative for the NAV and it is stronger than it was at friday's close. Discount to NAV is still quite big .

[arja] 01/6/2021 06:51

andyj,
I think the chart tells the story and what is likely to happen and it has a lovely
uptrending chart and close to being a NOR situation . Even the latest covid cases has not stopped the upward momentum in last day or so and vietnam indices up again today so far .

[amt] 01/6/2021 06:20

So what level do you think EPS will grow then ?

[andyj] 01/6/2021 05:49

Thumbs down for a government update? Preemptive action is how Vietnam controls the virus and it works, no need to panic yet. And today some promising news, three of the clusters in HCMC are now contained and they found the source of infection for the main one. Hopefully only the short sharp lockdown the market is pricing in.https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210601/200-coronavirus-cases-traced-to-religious-mission-in-ho-chi-minh-city-health-dept/61249.html?fbclid=IwAR2Dd-DV5n9GqrulBfU_ZGnATN7ScunVRvwNwEjk2duTq-HJE0Jq8fD-9nc

[andyj] 31/5/2021 07:49

Not a hunch. The reality of the current situation here.https://e.vnexpress.net/photo/news/covid-desolates-bustling-saigon-4286616.html

[amt] 31/5/2021 06:58

The range of EPS growth I have read from various analysts range ftom 25% to 40% so I dont think you can dismiss it on a hunch.

[andyj] 30/5/2021 16:18

I can assure you I do not need to read brokers forecasts to know that EPS growth will not be 40%. I hope they do, but the current reality suggests not.https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210530/ho-chi-minh-city-reinstates-social-distancing-measures-amidst-serious-covid19-outbreak/61224.html?fbclid=IwAR38mhxKMb1gLv5cZTaCKRr0jtW38QP6nMeAq1V3m3ikVi9oGW0c7QrqE_0

[shaker44] 29/5/2021 09:06

I can't think of a country that tackles this better than VN, outside China. Impressive

[dpmcq] 29/5/2021 08:53

good article shaker44, I see the India variant is one of the detected.
That will really need strict measures to stop the spread as we are now seeing in the UK it is starting to get a foothold as cases are doubling very quickly with Bolton currently the highest cases per 100,000.
This variant is at least the equal of the Kent variant that became the most dominant in Europe.
Current science points to two shots (ones currently given in UK) as being effective with only one shot giving 30-40% effectiveness.
Local Lockdowns or strict social distancing will be the only way to stop it transmitting very quickly.

[amt] 29/5/2021 08:13

Interesting article. There is encouraging data that the more transmissible variants are less deadly. This is normally what happens in pandemics and maybe we are at the beginning of the end. We will no longer focus on the spread but on how deadly it is.

[shaker44] 29/5/2021 06:56

Those of you in to Vietnam covid news may find this interesting: hxxps://www.nationthailand.com/international/40001430

[cordwainer] 28/5/2021 17:03

at approx the all time high for 3rd time this year.

[amt] 28/5/2021 13:51

Andy you are out of touch if you think 40% growth in EPS is not possible.
You need to read up on Brokers forecasts.

[dpmcq] 28/5/2021 13:50

thanks shaker44, been looking a couple of online newspapers,
was interested in the vaccination rollout and if a timescale had been set.

[shaker44] 28/5/2021 13:30

You can find all that by googling vietnam news in English- several sites. Which no doubt negative Andy will decry although they are like media everywhere. Not gospel but you can read between the lines.
As in most countries, news in this dynamic pandemic tends to change day to day. Some deliberate government disinformation and some understandable reactions to changing circumstances.

[dpmcq] 28/5/2021 13:00

I had seen what appeared to be strictness by authorities when outbreaks occurred.
Have your lockdowns only been local when outbreaks have happened?

I have also read that the health ministry intends to buy 110m vaccines in 2021.
Could I ask if there has been any official announcement for a planned rollout (if there is one) or is that something still to be announced?

[andyj] 28/5/2021 10:59

Agreed. And trust me no one on this thread hopes the virus is contained more than me! A full lockdown and my business here is gonna struggle.

[dpmcq] 28/5/2021 10:42

Fair enough...truce and we are wasting our time in nonsense posts filling up the thread.

[andyj] 28/5/2021 10:38

And it has gone far enough. Time to draw a line or we both get a ban! And FWIW our long term views are the same. We just have a very different short term view.

[dpmcq] 28/5/2021 10:34

I listened to a balanced view at that point, as you started name calling I have responded in kind.

[andyj] 28/5/2021 10:30

The irony is that I am merely warning you of the imminence of the very thing you thanked me for warning you about in your post 1391.

[dpmcq] 28/5/2021 10:29

hahahahahaha
You are the name caller little man, so responded in the only way to address a childish idiot, with no skin in the game, no intention of anything here but still posts.
Quickly worked out your agenda here as most others have, which is paper thin and spotted you bitterness at a lost opertunity...poor lad...now run along pal and play with your troll mates on your grubby keyboard and spend your pocket money on sweets....
Still waiting for the reasoning to what we are all missing.....but suspect that will not arrive....only good at name callng

[dpmcq] 28/5/2021 09:49

colleagues...you and gary g

HPG (Mkt. Cap: USD8.4 billion, NAV: 21.3%, +24% m-o-m): Reported 1Q21 revenue of USD1.4
billion, up 63% y-o-y, while profit after tax tripled to USD305 million, including USD283 million from its
core business and USD22 million from a one-off divestment of its non-core furniture company. The
company targets 2021 revenue of USD5.2 billion, up 33% y-o-y, and PAT of USD783 million, up 33%
y-o-y, although we note that HPG has a history of offering conservative guidance and thus we expect
this leading steel company to deliver higher than projected results for the year. The recent spike in iron
ore and steel prices has not negatively affected HPG as they are able to pass these costs on, and they
continue to gain market share with 35% of the market.

• KDH (Mkt. Cap: USD852 million, NAV: 9.6%, +15.6% m-o-m): Reported 1Q21 net profit of almost
USD9 million (up 33% y-o-y), fulfilling 17% of this year’s plan. The company targets 2021 net sales
increasing 6% y-o-y and NPAT increasing 7% y-o-y thanks to handovers at various projects. KDH
expects to pay a 10% stock dividend in 2021.

• FPT (Mkt. Cap: USD2.8 billion, NAV: 3.6%, +4.2% m-o-m): The IT sector makes up only 1.5% of
the index weight, dwarfed by the heavyweight financial (33% weight) and real estate (25%) sectors.
However, it is the best performing sector on the market year-to-date, up 33%, with much of this
performance owing to FPT Group (HOSE: FPT), up 37% YTD. In early May, FPT announced that it
acquired a majority stake in software-as-a-services start-up Base.vn for an undisclosed amount.
Founded in 2016, Base.vn helps businesses streamline management and operations activities such
as hiring, payroll, task management and team collaboration, and approval management. Base.vn said
they have 5,000 businesses as clients.

• VPB (Mkt. Cap: USD6.2 billion, NAV: 1.9%, +31.1% m-o-m): VP Bank (HOSE: VPB) announced the
successful divestment of a 49% stake in its wholly owned subsidiary, FE Credit, at an implied valuation
of 100% of FEC at USD2.8 billion (implying a P/B of 4.2x). FEC’s new shareholder structure will be VPB
50%, SMBC 49%, and VCSC 1%. The cash proceeds of USD1.4 billion will help improve the bank’s
consolidated capital adequacy ratio from 11% to nearly 20%. VPB released 1Q21 results with profit
before tax achieving 24% of management’s full-y

Can you explain what we are all missing here Einstein.....