Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 09/6/2021 10:00

Recent pullback in market reversed this morning with very strong rise.

Covid infections on the way down

[lageraemia] 07/6/2021 18:13

The dong must rise.

Fnnaarrr. Ooh err misses. Etc

[dickbush] 07/6/2021 15:33

The Dong has slowly depreciated against the Dollar over the past 10 years until the last year. More recently, the US took Vietnam off its list of currency manipulators, but it surely sent a message. Given the relative growth rates and productivity gains, the trade surplus with the US and elsewhere will continue to grow. QED the Dong must rise over the long run.

[arja] 07/6/2021 15:16

surely the vietnam cuurency is linked to $US , ie fixed and not floating . cable stronger today and maybe why VOF came off after a good start . Chart is a NOR situation and surely more in it

[dickbush] 03/6/2021 19:20

The Vietnamese currency has a lot of appreciation to come over the long run.

[hpcg] 03/6/2021 11:31

Big breakout on the chart and the discount give a huge margin of error. Chart not a million mile different to NAS:BSY in breakout terms. The latter I also own and bought more yesterday. A potential reason to buy either that, or into VOF is that Sterling is overvalued versus USD on a purchasing power parity basis (using the Big Mac comparison). Of course over the long run one would expect currency gains to carry on for years, even decades.

[dickbush] 03/6/2021 10:02

Assuming VOF performed in line with the main market today, the discount has risen to 17% at £4.695.

FWIW, at 18.65 times (according to Bloomberg) the market is cheap relative to other Far East ex-Japan markets. Check them out via Bloomberg. Korea and Taiwan probably not comparable because of the high tech content, but Thailand is over 30 times and the Philippines is almost 30 times. Maybe they are on depressed earnings, but that's a big gap.

[amt] 03/6/2021 06:14

A big rise in the Vietnam market this morning.
A good day ahead for VOF with the large discount likely to narrow at some stage I am very positive.
EPS growth of 25 to 40% on the cards and historic pe of about 20 still plenty of upside both short term and longterm in my view.
I plan to hold for 5 to 10 years.

[kenmitch] 01/6/2021 16:40

I’ve fond memories of when Vietnam was little understood and with very few UK investors buying, and hardly anyone posting too. That was when Vietnam was way cheaper than similar markets and there was great fun to be had with VNH especially, as they had two sets of warrants that soared both times as people woke up to the fabulous Vietnam Investment opportunity. And the share gains, though less spectacular were very good too.

It’s much more balanced now that Vietnam market has had a long good run and is on higher PE ratio, and the easy gains have been had. It’s crazy anyone posting that Vietnam market falls or gains are a certainty.

If as some claim, young and vibrant Vietnam is the new China, then whatever happens shorter term, long term the 3 Vietnam Trusts will continue to be very successful, with dips buying opportunities.

[shaker44] 01/6/2021 15:58

Non essential investor you are so funny.
Amateur psychologist from no facts and the same at investing. Self opinionated has-been adding no value here
Lets leave it at that
Filtered

[dpmcq] 01/6/2021 15:25

Hydrogen economy - I believe from the companies investment policy it states that no single investment may exceed 20% of the NAV of the Company at the time of investment.
So I agree, that they should reduce the holding inline with their investment policy.

[hydrogen economy] 01/6/2021 14:47

The lift up in NAV yesterday may be due to Hao Phat Group. Their dividend was paid on 31st May, 35% total, 20% as shares. VOF HPG holding is over 20% so that gave quite a lift. The very high dividend reflects a big rise in production whilst margins have risen a lot. They also made a significant acquisition of an Australian iron ore mine. Iron ore prices have been at record highs so unclear if that will be a good purchase. Vietnamese companies have in the past made some ill-advised overseas investments, hopefully this will not turn out the same.

The HPG holding is very high as the share price has tripled in the last 12 months, I guess VOF will have limits on single holding so may offload some.

[andyj] 01/6/2021 14:41

And to Essential Investor and Hydrogen Economy, good luck in your investment. See you on other boards.

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2021 14:35

People who are content do not usually need to have a pop at others.

To me that strongly signifies someone who is unhappy with some aspects of their own lives, be it financial or otherwise.

Will leave it at that.

[shaker44] 01/6/2021 14:06

Seems you shout loud and often so happy to take your word on that

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2021 13:41

You don't know his personal circumstances.


There is an old City saying - success is quiet.


Those who shout loudest are usually small fry.

[shaker44] 01/6/2021 13:35

Andy highlighted how risky it all seemed to him then sat on his hands while the rest of us made serious money

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2021 13:24

No need to throw around phrases like...any normal person.

Andy highlighted this and other funds, long before the crowd turned up here.

Would hope he's done very nicely as a result.

[exotic] 01/6/2021 12:57

And VEIL up 3.1% today for some reason. VOF positioned to break out.

All Vietnam indices closed higher again.

VOF, VEIL, and VNH all report a jump in NAVs.

Anyone who sold VOF around £3 based on their local knowledge needs to understand a couple of things.

1. Just because you have a local advantage doesn't guarantee that your investment decision will be right.

2. Industries have learnt ways of thriving under Covid restrictions. So no matter how bad the infection rate, it will never be anywhere near as bad for business as it was during the first wave.

Any normal person would have accepted they made a mistake and either bought back or moved on.

[shaker44] 01/6/2021 12:34

Check out vnh too

[amt] 01/6/2021 11:52

Yes Kenmitch spot on.
I notice a big jump in nav this morning.
Discount is 16%.
I expect this to go when Vietnam becomes mainstream investing.

[kenmitch] 01/6/2021 10:32

I agree amt. Anyway predicting markets is a mugs game as so often they go up when we think they will go down and vice versa. Who could have predicted a worldwide bull market when the market crashed last year? The Vietnam Fund Managers are very good with their market comments so listen to them ahead of posters on any website with very iffy posting record! This bull market could continue for a good while yet, or end soon. Who knows? None of us until the event.

[amt] 01/6/2021 10:25

What nonsense.
A bubble is when prices are far above historical averages not just because prices have gone up.
A market p/e of 18 with EPS growth between 25 to 40% is cheap.
If the market doubled from here it would be similar to Indian valuations.

[andyj] 01/6/2021 09:27

I see a chart that has risen 85% in a year. I see a chart that shows a 50% increase from before the pandemic. I see a bubble.