Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/10/2023 20:28

I guess the more savvy amongst us will look forward to investing in a company which has massive net tangible liabilities, a £1bn debt pile and which lost £100m last year.

Oi Oi Savvy boi.

[black boulder] 01/10/2023 19:54

The irrational hysteria in these chat rooms and even in the mainstream media around accounting issues relating to £400K of revenue has resulted in a share price which represents an EBITDA multiple for the Group of only 7x (taking into account £658m of Debt, £238m of Preference Shares, £600m of Market Cap and expected 2023/24 EBITDA of £214m) which is very low for a company with Revenues of £1.5B and a portfolio of businesses spread across the UK, Spain, Italy, The Netherlands, Belgium, Turkey, the US and Australia.

By way of comparison, the single Spanish ceramic tiles producer Baldocer, with revenues of around €200m, sold last week for €425m plus an Earn Out arrangement, representing an EBITDA multiple of around 10x.

At 10x EBITDA Victoria’s share price would be over £10.

As is often the case, the market has way over-reacted to a bit of bad news which is obviously in fact quite immaterial, creating a great buying opportunity for more savvy investors.

[rotrader] 30/9/2023 12:11

You can't be that confident if you constantly De- Ramp the share

[rotrader] 29/9/2023 16:00

If you would of invested when I did you might not be so negative.Buying opportunity for me , 3k in my SIPP,You short it for the same amount and one of us will be a winner in 18 months time;-)

[arthur_lame_stocks] 29/9/2023 15:53

It's certainly delivered outsized returns to date! if you know what I mean.

[rotrader] 29/9/2023 15:51

Part of VCP statement- Given the anticipated productivity improvements, cost savings, and working capital enhancements expected later this year and the increase in financial performance these bring, the Board remains confident that Victoria PLC will continue to deliver outsized returns for its shareholders.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 28/9/2023 17:41

I would sooner invest in a company that I think is going to succeed.

[rotrader] 28/9/2023 17:25

The Vultures are circling but a lot of the big shorters closed their positions a while ago.Big investment companies still hold a major amount of stock, I haven't seen them selling.Each to their own but I would sooner invest in a company that I hope succeeds

[arthur_lame_stocks] 28/9/2023 16:03

That short is bound to come good at some point.

[wiseacre] 28/9/2023 15:59

For the benefit of rotrader I have regularly held a short position and do so now.

[wiseacre] 28/9/2023 15:56

Warning to Bears the free float is small and the shares are easily manipulated as has been the case.

[rotrader] 28/9/2023 15:53

Storm in a teacup, buy opportunity.Most who slate VCP on this board don't hold a position, bit sad really ;-(

[wiseacre] 28/9/2023 09:27

Fraud is fraud and the company's own auditor was extraordinarily outspoken. The truth will out and the punters remaining in this stock are bonkers.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 27/9/2023 18:03

I reckon VCP will struggle on until they need to refinance the first of those bonds, that'll finish 'em off.

[rotrader] 27/9/2023 17:58

Welcome to the board, you can join the rest with suspicious minds.How come not many get suspicious about the the big conglomerates who rip us all off on a daily basis, paying big dividends to shareholders and ruining the world with their lack of investment in infrastructure.I would sooner take a chance in a company that is building its war chest to take advantage when the cycle of high inflation changes, which we all know it will.Banks, Power companies, Water companies and insurance companies are making vast profits from the situation at the moment

[spob] 26/9/2023 17:38

Have always been suspicious of this company

[bart1066] 26/9/2023 13:17

Perhaps to exacerbate the situation of a worthless company, the growth in sales has come with a reduction in operating margin, and then refinancing £650m of debt in a couple of years, and sharp contraction of consumer spending, puts this company at serious risk of failure. Imo

[extrader] 26/9/2023 12:29

As the Iceberg (Aug 2022)note says

"..Victoria also has no tangible equity (minus £302m) if you exclude intangible assets from acquisitions. This is because debt, largely senior secured notes and preferred equity, was used to pay for most deals. As a result, total debt was 120x higher at the end of FY22 at £1bn, versus £8.6m at the end of FY13.

Even worse is the free cash flow. The group’s total FCF for the last 10 financial years was minus £493m. Peers Headlam Group and Mohawk Industries, on the other hand, produced £246m and $2.1bn (~£1.6bn), respectively..."

E&OE, NAI
No position.
ATB

[extrader] 26/9/2023 11:41

Net Debt
£m
255 326 449 462 732 1,066
Net Fixed Assets
£m
149 197 297 286 357 627
Book Value
£m
266 302 241 208 203 119
Average Shares
m
103 123 125 129 117 116
Book Value ps
p
226 241 192 178 173 103

Given static share numbers, this suggests that many Fixed Assets were acquired at prices including a lot of intangible value.

The related debt is very real, however.

[bda3490] 26/9/2023 07:35

I suppose the Daily Mail is just short selling too.

The auditors must be to blame !

[babbler] 26/9/2023 06:50

A spokesman for Victoria said: "There is no wrong-doing at Hanover and nor are the auditors alleging this. Hanover's issue was predominantly one of having heightened financial risk due to inadequate accounting records, a situation that is regularly found when smaller businesses are acquired, as their standards of financial controls and record keeping often don't match the high levels we have across the rest of the group.""However, it is essential to note that the amounts involved are immaterial as Hanover as a whole represents less than 1.25 per cent of our total revenues and the sums for which inadequate records existed were less than 0.08 per cent of our revenues""We have obligations to both shareholders and bondholders to publish our audited accounts within a certain time frame, and the board concluded that further work and delay on this immaterial matter would not generate any additional evidence beyond what was already known".Times today.