Vianet Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 09/3/2021 14:21

It does seem odd. The recovery seems more dramatic than is justified by just the prospect of pubs reopening in April. Welcome, though.

[edpick] 09/3/2021 12:55

100p paid. What is driving this? Some surge in the past couple of weeks

[boonkoh] 04/3/2021 12:53

Desperately needing some sort of trading update.But yeah, looking like the market has priced in a much rosier scenario, compared to two months ago.

[jeffian] 04/3/2021 11:56

Seems to be recovering remarkably well. Not sure whether this is just relief that the pubs will be reopening soon or indicative of improvements in the contactless sales side.

[its the oxman] 29/1/2021 11:47

Should of bought Marstons or MAB

[pottsypotts] 17/1/2021 17:02

Thanks for that, reading the last results looks like the working from home could be detrimental for the office vending machines also

[jeffian] 16/1/2021 16:04

#798,
pottsypotts, for the year to March 2020 (i.e. before the full impact of Covid kicked in) Smart Zones (the beer monitoring business) provided 75% of the operating profit. This disappeared at the following interims. Unfortunately, although the Smart Machines business is growing and their target is clearly to build up this part to offset their reliance on the pub sector, it is still very early days. I'm sure there will be a business when the pubs reopen but when that will be and what size pub estate will remain are unknown. I am reasonably confident that the national pub estate will recover in due course - the sad fact is that whilst operators will go bust, at some point those pubs will reopen with new tenants or managers - and the need for VNET's monitoring equipment is now well-established as an important management tool. I will sit on what I've got (not very many) but I would not be brave enough to buy until the mists clear a bit. Things could easily get worse before they get better.

[illiswilgig] 16/1/2021 15:08

Hello Boule,

Hope you are well?

Yes, you are correcrt, probably not brave - just foolish. And risky.

There is madness in my method. Perhaps.

The current shareprice fall seems to reflect the risk of raising fresh equity.

I think the company will work hard to avoid this. The chairman owns 17.5% of the shares - so I can't see him wanting to raise more capital unless its really necessary?

It will be a close thing. They will need to tighten their belts considerably to avoid raising capital based upon the cash burn in the recent interims.

The small purchase by him and the CEO, who steps down in March and owns 0.7% - so has reason to not buy any more - I see as a signal to confirm they don't intend - and I use the word intend advisedly - to raise fresh capital.

Having been sitting on the fence waiting for some kind of information either way - I've pretty much got to back it as I see it - but it is a small purchase, just like the directors.

So yes, risky it is.

cheers

[pottsypotts] 16/1/2021 14:12

No recovery at all in the share price which is to be expected due to lockdown yet pub chain like Spoons seems to have recovered some ground from the lows? What percentage of Vianets business is at risk with pub chains, anyone know

[bouleversee] 16/1/2021 12:38

Very brave, Illis. I also hold but everything I have topped up after a fall in the past has just compounded my loss so I will give it a miss, especially after numerous
large losses in my p/f yesterday.

[illiswilgig] 16/1/2021 11:52

Boonkoh - Thank you, that's the way I've read it as well.

Having been sitting on the fence - I decided to back my hunch and follow the directors lead with a small purchase to top up.

cheers

[panshanger1] 15/1/2021 09:00

Just too much uncertainty to invest or add at the moment ( for me )Trading update March will see what they have to say then

[boonkoh] 15/1/2021 08:45

Definitely trading at a bargain price.The key risk I see though is possibility of an equity fundraising.My calcs is that they probably have about £2-3m cash left, having drawn down all their CBIL and overdrafts. Don't think this is enough to see them through half year, especially needing to increase working capital too for ramp up into new sales.But director buys yesterday means no fundraising imminent, otherwise they wouldn't have been able to buy.

[panshanger1] 14/1/2021 16:41

Did see Liontrust and Gresham House ( institutional holders ) increase their holdings during the carnage last year though If it can weather through might look different at the end of the year Long haul here though

[boonkoh] 14/1/2021 16:01

Three token director purchases today. What's the point?Especially CEO and Chairman already have a big chunk of shares.

[boonkoh] 05/1/2021 13:19

Looking gloomy for Q1.Even if new Lockdown ends after 8 weeks, it's not going to a full unlocking. Probably back to Tier 4, then Tier 3, etc...Expecting pubs in UK to be closed at least till early March, if not end of March.

[boonkoh] 29/12/2020 14:29

Can't believe this keeps dropping like a stone.Either there's a fundraising in the background and info has leaked, or investors are afraid of further Tier 4 impact in Jan-Mar on Smart Zone revenues.

[illiswilgig] 26/12/2020 14:39

Hi Oxman,

unfortunately (for us holders) this one is very much a game of two halves.

Covid has had the effect of highlighting the future growth prospects of the smart machines (unattended retailing/IOT) division. Thats the second half. But to get there with no profits from smart zones (pub customers) to bridge the gap - the customers need to roll in to smart machines before the cash gives out - or there is the prospect of fund raise.

Cash drain in H1 was flattered by the change in working capital (decreased revceivable s and inventories). They can't keep doing that.

But that doesn't mean a fund raise will actually happen - the new customers may arrive. Or the Chairman may decide to slow the product development and make the cash last until the customers do arrive. Given the significant holdings of the chairman - and his recent buying - I think thats more likely. Provided the customers do arrive.

There seems to be something of a buyers strike while we wait to see which way it goes, as any fund raise will likely be at a significant discount - which may account for the price drifting downwards.

I am waiting to see how low it will drift before adding - but I do recognise that any contract news will likely cause a significant re-rating?

cheers

[its the oxman] 24/12/2020 00:04

Or perhaps im just missing something. Last added myself at 68p. Co seems well positioned to survive so will wait and see what happens now.

[its the oxman] 23/12/2020 23:45

Seems crazy Wetherspoons , marstons and many other leisure type plays are recovering while this gets evermore sold down , could prove a great opportunity for the brave buyer at this level.

[illiswilgig] 09/12/2020 13:55

As you rightly point out the future of Vianet is not with pubs, sadly especially not with village pubs.

It seems that Vianet also spotted this some time ago. If I understand it rightly their future model is based upon growth in what they are calling the 'unattended retail sector' which used to be the kitkat machine to me. Or the one where all the popular bars had sold out and only the curly wurlys were left? And if you hit it right it gave you the product instead of swallowing your money. My how things change?

I expect unattended retailing to grow rapidly post covid and not just for kitkats and coffee machines. Pharmacies and many other retail operations are looking towards 24hour unattended operation based upon near real-time data management, analytics and contactless payment.

The company is in transition from a manufacturer, installer and maintainer of electronic flowing monitoring and telemetry boxes (now outsourced) to a cloud based provider of software as a service in unattended retail services.

None of that means that they will succeed - one of the biggest risks to this is that the profits from the i-draught disappear before they can grow the unattended retail services - but if they do. and in my view they have a fair chance - it will not be resting on the future of the village pub, more a Robot Bar? Ugh! what a horrible thought.

cheers

[mystericon] 09/12/2020 11:38

My concern is that essentially there are unfavourable structural changes in Vianet's marketplace that Covid has just dramatically accelerated. In my village, for example, there were 4 pubs in 2012. One closed, as part of the familiar shrinkage of this sector as customer demand contracts, four years ago. Of the remaining three at the start of this year one has seen its already-struggling tenant walk away so is currently empty and a second is still occupied but has been closed since March because the tenants apparently have just "given up": in both cases the brewery has been trying to attract new managers but with no success (even before Covid it's become ever harder to persuade new people to enter this troubled sector, while planning law sadly encourages owners/brewers to go through the motions of unsuccessfully trying to recruit in order to keep pubs going as this helps get change-of-use consent for the property's redevelopment or sale, so no-one locally really expects either place to re-open as a hostelry). The four and final pub, a free house, we hope will survive in the business. But where on earth but in difficulty does this place Vianet's model? Sure, you can theoretically make a higher percentage profit in a much smaller sector but revenues are surely going to be permanently far down for anyone supplying pubs.

[energeticbacker] 09/12/2020 10:17

Operating cash flow was a positive £1.19m but free cash flow a negative £155k. Having secured £3.5m of funding through the government’s CBIL’s scheme period end net debt was £1.15m.

Investor's Champion comments that when its markets re-open Vianet's products could see strong demand.

[this_is_me] 08/12/2020 08:26

Long term the prospects look better than they did this time last year. Short term it is going to continue to be a struggle. I can't see the company going bust so we have a good investment at current share price levels.

[its the oxman] 08/12/2020 08:03

A good business, just need pubs to reopen. Could then move quickly. Till then patience.