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[chillpill] 26/11/2018 08:55

Clubbie you might as well sell up and move along.

The timescale is too short for you.

[ny boy] 26/11/2018 08:53

That old biddie on Eastbourne promenade is going for an early dip and can stick her nanene walking stick where the sun don’t shine, with her talk of 130p being smashed!

[ellissj] 26/11/2018 08:52

In that bloomberg EV article, notice the foreign firms in JV's with local chinese producers, all the big german carmakers there i see. Thus it's not inconceivable to my mind, that we could see MOU's &/or JV's with such pre-existing consortia to investigate/develop uses for VRS products in EV's in china? Just speculating. Aimo. Best ellis

[hattie1] 26/11/2018 08:51

A constant stream of great research ..thanks ellis ..

[mikebrenner] 26/11/2018 08:47

An interesting case study on the weight saving benefits to an airline from the humble dinner tray

[ellissj] 26/11/2018 08:46

And of course, if chinese govt likewise 'incentivises' 2D graphene to be used in lightweighting, tyres, batteries, etc in EV's VRS look well positioned ? Aimo. Best ellis.

[fuji99] 26/11/2018 08:45

Very impatient people around who do not fit the real investor profile but unsettled trader's.
Pleased they are selling to go away.

[pshevlin] 26/11/2018 08:40

The people who are likely to sell on "no news" Monday or otherwise will be getting fewer and fewer in number as the constant churn doesn't yield them a profit. Might get a bit more stability.

[ellissj] 26/11/2018 08:40

Good spot Fitz re Lightweighting aircraft. And of course neill keeps mentioning EV's. Looks like plenty of opportunity in china coming up with govt legislation pushing production ! Aimo. Best ellis

"New emission rules will force global carmakers to redraw their road maps."

Bloomberg News

November 14, 2018, 9:00 PM GMT

The world’s biggest market for electric vehicles wants to get even bigger, so it’s giving automakers what amounts to an ultimatum. Starting in January, all major manufacturers operating in China—from global giants Toyota Motor and General Motors to domestic players BYD and BAIC Motor—have to meet minimum requirements there for producing new-energy vehicles, or NEVs (plug-in hybrids, pure-battery electrics, and fuel-cell autos). A complex government equation requires that a sizable portion of their production or imports must be green in 2019, with escalating goals thereafter.

The regime resembles the cap-and-trade systems being deployed worldwide for carbon emissions: Carmakers that don’t meet the quota themselves can purchase credits from rivals that exceed it. But if they can’t buy enough credits, they face government fines or, in a worst-case scenario, having their assembly lines shut down.

“The pressure is mounting,” says Yunshi Wang, director of the China Center for Energy and Transportationat the University of California at Davis. “This could be a model for other countries; it could be a game changer globally.”

The message coming from the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases is clear: Even as President Trump withdraws support for alternative fuels, attempts to gut mileage requirements, and begins the process of pulling out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, China is dead serious about leading the way to an electrified future. That would help it reduce a dependence on imported oil and blow away the smog choking its cities. It would also help domestic automakers gain more expertise in a car manufacturing segment that’s burgeoning globally.

Given the size of the Chinese market, the largest for cars overall and for EVs, auto companies will have to rapidly accelerate their development and manufacturing efforts to meet the targets. By 2025, China’s leaders want 7 million cars sold every year, or about 20 percent of the total, to be plug-in hybrids or battery-powered. “This is probably the single most important piece of EV legislation in the world,” Bloomberg NEF said in May.

The world’s largest automaker is certainly taking notice. Volkswagen AG, which sold just under 40 percent of its vehicles in China last year, says it will introduce about 40 locally produced NEV models in China within the next decade. “Volkswagen Group China will meet the government’s targets,” the company said in a statement.

The formula for doing so is algebraic, and the 10 percent credit target in the first year won’t necessarily equate to 10 percent of cars sold. For example, a pure-electric vehicle with a range topping 300 kilometers (186 miles) will generate more credits than one with lesser performance or than a gasoline-electric hybrid. The rules apply to all companies that manufacture or import more than 30,000 cars annually. The floor rises to 12 percent in 2020, then keeps increasing in line with the government’s ultimate plan to eliminate fossil fuel vehicles by a still-unspecified date.

BMW AG, which sells more cars in China than anywhere else, makes two plug-in hybrids there and plans to produce two pure-electric cars, including the iX3 SUV, starting in 2020. Yet some companies will struggle to reach the goals under their own steam. “Carmakers are both technically and commercially not ready for a ramp-up in EV production to the level of the quotas,” says Sophie Shen, an automotive analyst at PwC in Shanghai.

So they’re turning to a wide range of solutions to avoid falling short. Ford Motor Co., which lost $378 million in China in the third quarter, is teaming up with Zotye Automobile Co., a minor domestic player, to jointly produce cars eligible for the credits, Asia-Pacific President Peter Fleet said in October. Ford will introduce at least 15 hybrids and EVs in China by 2025. Vehicles sold through the Zotye partnership will have a new brand name.

Some rivals, however, are putting their names on the same generic car. Toyota, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Honda Motor, and Mitsubishi Motorsall plan to sell the same electric SUV, developed by Guangzhou Automobile Group, to Chinese drivers. Other than brand-specific pricing and specifications, the models will be largely identical. That’s not ideal in an industry that prizes distinctive marketing, but it’s a necessary compromise until the companies develop their own technologies.

While carmakers have plenty of regulatory reasons to flood Chinese showrooms with EVs, it’s not clear that consumers will want them. Electric cars remain considerably more expensive than their gasoline counterparts everywhere; in China, where gasoline cars such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Co.’s Benben Mini model sell for as little as 29,900 yuan ($4,300), the difference can be especially pronounced.

For now, government subsidies for EVs cover much of that gap, running to as much as $7,900 for an all-electric vehicle with a range longer than 400km. That can offset almost one-third of the sticker price of a BYD e5 electric car.

The incentives, though, are being phased out and will disappear in 2021. That could mean a risky several years for automakers, since battery costs aren’t expected to be truly price-competitive with internal combustion engines until 2024 to 2028, depending on a vehicle’s type and the region of the globe where it’s sold, according to BNEF.

Still, the government has other levers should demand fall short. Several of the largest cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, limit the number of cars on their roads by restricting the issuance of new license plates. In those metropolises, simply acquiring the right to purchase a car can be pricey. A plate for a traditional gas guzzler costs as much as $14,000 in Shanghai. But if a consumer decides on an EV instead, it’s free.

BNEF already expects 2.5 million passenger EVs to be sold in China in 2022. But if similar restrictions take off in other cities, particularly the rapidly growing industrial hubs of the interior, EV growth could be even more dramatic.

For the moment, domestic models will mostly remain confined to the Chinese market. “Right now a lot of the cars selling in China have zero brand value outside of China,” says Janet Lewis, the head of industrials and transportation research for Asia at investment bank Macquarie Capital. But the EVs that are successful in the early-adopting mainland market may eventually help China develop the manufacturing and branding expertise it will need to export more vehicles to other countries, experts say.

China undoubtedly will tweak its credit-and-subsidy regime as it seeks to encourage an electric-first domestic auto industry. The minimum thresholds of the cap-and-trade system for 2021 and beyond haven’t been laid out, though they’ll have to rise rapidly to meet government sales targets for NEVs.

It’s a direction of travel that couldn’t be more different from that of the Trump administration. But for global carmakers, it’s increasingly clear that policymakers in Beijing, not Washington, are in the driver’s seat. —Matthew Campbell and Tian Ying"

— With assistance by Yan Zhang, Keith Naughton, Christoph Rauwald, and Oliver Sachgau

[tini5] 26/11/2018 08:37

Big spread - smacks of a shake out.

[grabster] 26/11/2018 08:36

Passers-by might see two big housing development sites.

On one, all the effort has gone into quickly throwing up one house. Nothing else has happened across the whole of the site. Hey look at that house, built already. Fully fitted out and furnished for show. As soon as they sell it they can afford to start a second one. And when they've sold that, a third one.

On the second site there are no shiny houses showing at all. To the casual passer-by there is nothing to catch the eye. Just a dull low-lying network of roads and kerbs, all in place up to tarmac basecoat level. Drains and sewers all laid to every plot but nothing to see of that except cast iron manhole lids. Trenchfill footings have been poured on a hundred houses and bricked up to dampcourse level - ground floor concrete in place on almost all of them. Still nothing that the casual passer-by would recognize as a house. "Where are the houses? I see no houses here. On that other site they already have one built. I think they might even have sold it."

;-)

[p@] 26/11/2018 08:34

Needs a stiff something ,right up!

[chillpill] 26/11/2018 08:33

Club Sandwich has been way too optimistic all the way along. He needs to stop dreaming and be realistic.

[club sandwich] 26/11/2018 08:33

RTJ - patient? What else have we been this entire year, while we've been waiting for VRS to turn talk into money?And while I'm here; where's the follow-up on this alleged 2-year exclusivity deal with the machine manufacturers? And while they're at it, they better agree a locked-in price for the machines too, otherwise if/when big orders do arrive VRS might suddenly find the price increasing astronomically - because I know that's what I'd do...

[a_game] 26/11/2018 08:29

CS - oh can we tell you're getting "impatient" 😂😂 go have a stiff drink!

[nemo19] 26/11/2018 08:27

Lovat

JBER which is Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG
With effect from the start of business on Friday 24 February 2017, Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG will commence trading in Exchange Traded Funds – Euroclear Bank Settlement("IET").

Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG
Neuer Jungfernstieg 20
Hamburg

[runthejoules] 26/11/2018 08:26

Usual no-RNS dip I see. There's more than enough to be quietly patient about this company without getting excited about when a magic train's going to come along and run over all the naughty shorters, and sell out when on one particular Monday it doesn't.

[club sandwich] 26/11/2018 08:24

A_game - I'm long, moron, just starting to get very VERY impatient that the yawning gulf start to close between Ricketts' extravagant claims and the reality of how much they've sold so far.

[fuji99] 26/11/2018 08:19

Interesting for newcomers.


Nanene price looks more than £200/g. Mac Laren used it on its cars in the past.

[luckyorange] 26/11/2018 08:13

I hope it goes well rtj so that the ones who got in on his say so can get their funds out intact.

[a_game] 26/11/2018 08:10

Oh dear - CS is going to be caught short when the price rises and he'll be complaining when the price rises now not falls!! I sense a great week coming ;)