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[dubois] 03/3/2021 14:08

Nothing wrong with that approach

[chawkers] 03/3/2021 13:44

I think we can speculate ad nauseam about why orders have failed to materialise as expected over the last 9 months. If we do get an RNS which announces that a change in sales strategy has resulted in a swathe of orders, then I would be happy to re-evaluate my view of VDTK. But for now I am happy to sit on the sidelines and see how things pan out.

[dubois] 03/3/2021 09:40

An RNS saying we have an order will do no good. What we need is confirmation that all is well, orders are coming in on a regular basis and that a new strategy has been put in place and is working.
We lack confidence in the BOD at the moment.
Price wise, I think we are pretty well at the bottom here and hopefully the only way is up.

Despite everything, it will not take much to get us back up to 10p

[chawkers] 03/3/2021 09:28

Dubois - as you say, it's probably one last roll of the dice for VDTK. Either they hire some experienced sales people who pull in some orders or they run out of cash and its game over. Pretty binary outcome imo. As ever, should make for compelling viewing!

[dubois] 02/3/2021 19:02

I think it's a case of chicken and egg, yet they have no option but to hire.No sales equals no business. Sales at least gives them a chance.

[chawkers] 02/3/2021 18:51

For me the key question is how many additional sales people they can afford to hire. We know they have hired Leo Powell in the UK. Wondered if they have or are planning any further hires and if so, where they will be focussed.

[dubois] 02/3/2021 17:55

The BOD are saying nothing at the moment and I agree with that, as it doesn't matter what they say now as nobody will believe them. They simply have to do the business now and let sales do the talking.

[vatnabrekk] 02/3/2021 17:45

Certainly hope you are right, Dubois!

[dubois] 02/3/2021 17:28

Chawkers, I think RR simply got it totally wrong and went down the wrong path. He knows that and has now moved back onto standard sales techniques that he has excelled at in the past. This year will see things totally different. I would be ashamed if it was me and I'm sure he is.
He was used to working in a much bigger organisation and has had a bit of a shock as to what it is like in a smaller company.
The product is good and there is absolutely no reason why there should not be an avalanche of sales if done correct.

All in my view of course.

[chawkers] 02/3/2021 16:47

Dubois - this being the case, why in almost a year since his appointment in April 2020, despite his stellar track record in boosting sales at his previous companies, has,Rob Richards and his sales team failed to generate any sales of any magnitude during the time he has been with VDTK and what is going to be the catalyst to trigger the tsunami (38MW) of sales you are forecasting for the rest of this year?

[dubois] 02/3/2021 16:18

I've worked on them achieving a 10% (industry standard) conversion rate of potential sales through leads of £200m. The £200m is based on perhaps 4 of the commission only sales people, the new sales guy, plus one more direct sales guy.
There are not many that will agree with the £200m.

[chawkers] 02/3/2021 16:07

Dubois - if you have arrived at your 38MW sales estimate for 2021 through a product pipeline estimate (76MW?) and a conversion rate (50%?)or some more arcane method ( throwing a dart?) I would politely suggest reevaluating that estimate after applying a healthy dose of scepticism/realism.

[astralvision] 02/3/2021 14:28

38MW this year would be massive dubois and at anything like the selling price and margins mentioned then we would be looking like a 10 bagger here at least.I struggle to see it, esp as no sales after two months. And to finance 38MW of sales I reckon they would have to reside at least £10m All imoGLA

[32campomar] 02/3/2021 14:25

The previous forecast by WH Ireland was for 20MW this year so I'm not sure how you get to 38MW, particularly as we are already nearly 1/4 of the way through the year and they have sold Nothing!

[chawkers] 02/3/2021 13:56

Dubois - can I ask what is your sales estimate of 38MW 8n 2021 based on?

[dubois] 02/3/2021 13:48

Many thanks Astra,
Where we are has now been discussed to death, so I wont go over it other than to say, the company has not performed as either the BOD or investors expected. The reasons being many and we do not know all of them.
There is no doubt that RR has had a great deal of explaining to do to ii's and I see no sign as of yet, that there are any moves to change any of the BOD. The TW situation was one that hurt them for more than we realised at the time. This will have taken a lot of time and effort to sort with authorities.

My view for what it is worth, is that they got it very very wrong, but are now in the process of correcting their strategy and I expect sales to commence this month.
My guess would be 38mw this year.

[astralvision] 02/3/2021 13:24

In me notes somewhere dubois.From memory wasn't it something like looking at minimum pricing of one euro per watt, that's the sales price, with around 40% gross margins?Guess that was from 6-9 months ago.Given the stop start nature of Lainate then I guess those gross margins might be generous?

[dubois] 02/3/2021 13:12

Astra, What was the price per mw to us?

[astralvision] 02/3/2021 13:09

Camponar Agreed, that's the conclusion I've come to.At one point the strategy, as outlined by RR, was to increase capacity substantially to get the cost per panel down to a level where they can compete in decent sized markets.I never quite understood that at the time, esp when they were taking about 2GW in one vertical market. But it's clear now, the panels simply aren't attractive at the current price point. Least that's my view, if it's something else they should tell us.As for cash flow positive by end of June, no chance. Imo they will probably need to raise again this half year.

[astralvision] 02/3/2021 13:04

il duce 15I've got minimal holding now in VDTK.As to if it could be a good buy in the future, time will tell.I'm of the opinion the bod/management structure needs yet another clear out.There doesn't seem to be any clear strategy or plan, or if there is they haven't told investors.eg, future expansion plans like Portugal, on hold?Sales strategy, has the commission only model been dropped?Paragraf JV update?Cash burn?Expected or budgeted sales for this year?Will SAF deal ever come back?There's a list as long as your arm of questions that need an answer.

[1teepee] 02/3/2021 13:01

Do you still have your 1%?

[meijiman] 02/3/2021 12:52

Well no one seems to know whats going on here? Not a satisfactory state of affairs. When is the next formal news..guess results.

[32campomar] 02/3/2021 12:52

The only reasonable conclusion is that the panels are too expensive. The world is rushing to try and lower carbon footprints, so to be unable to sell anything of note for over 6 months is very concerning. We were supposed to be cash flow positive by the end of last year, there seems little chance of that now by the end of the half year period in June.

[il duce15] 02/3/2021 12:30

astralvision, why do you still hold if you think they will need money regardless of a contract win?

With those views do you not think you would be able to buy back into the company cheaper?

[astralvision] 02/3/2021 11:59

The 'base case' presented by the brokers WHIreland was for 20MW of panel sales in 2021.Imo, this is already looking something of a forlorn hope and , in any case, may not even be possible if the sales were there as VDTK simply don't have the funds to finance that level of sales.At 20MW VDTK need to be selling 5MW every quarter. With 'Nul points' on the board so far that looks an uphill struggle. Best scenario is that the existing 1MW of stock is sold bringing in some much needed cash.If some level of sales can be obtained I assume the strategy is to try to ramp the share price up on the back of a few orders and do a placing off the back of that.The cash can then be used to restart/ increase production.Without a few decent contract wins then that avenue is a difficult one.I assume at some point the 'base case' 20MW will be downgraded to something more achievable. At least the comparables will look good this year, as can't get less than zero/minimal sales.Perhaps a more realistic aim for this year is up to 5MW panels sold and another large cash raise, that could be viewed as a success. 5MW would at least confirm there is a market of sorts for the flexible panels at VDTK's price point. Right now that question is open to debate. Nobody is rushing to buy flexible panels, I think VDTK's price point of three times the cost of conventional panels could well be the major sticking point.What do others feel is a realistic target for VDTK thud year?Multiple choice?0 MW5 MW10 MWMore and we're in fantasy land!GLA