Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[valhamos] 31/12/2018 19:15

Although it's been hammered in the last couple of months like most others at least my portfolio performance (4.5% down overall, though investment holdings only, excluding dividends, income portfolio and cash, were down 9%) was a lot better than my comparison result.

From what others have posted I tend to be more diversified than most and this year more diversified than normal which was largely planned as a result of the increasing uncertainty. This lessened the impact of CAKE and SDRY in the portfolio rather more than it did in the comparison. I also sold off a few bigger positions like KNOS and MCGN in late summer to double my cash holding (currently 17%) but now seeing a few attractive valuations worth exploring.

[apad] 31/12/2018 19:02

Piedro,
You have been consistent on SRT.
It was on my watch list (surprisingly) as an income share (despite the lumpy revenues).
I wrote it off when they announced their satellite ambitions. Do you have any reservations on this news?

apad🤔

[apad] 31/12/2018 18:21

janeann - what's all this about "real" money!
My Mam was really, really well off when she retired, aged 60. When she died, aged 97, I was funding her because she put her money in the Building Soc. for a third of a century.
The pound is down 5.5% against the dollar this year.
"Real money" is government promissory notes and should be treated as such.

apad😡

[cragside] 31/12/2018 18:02

If I am not blacklisted for lack of posts during the year, then the 5 for 2019 based on my current holdings are:

HUR Could be a significant year ahead with a lot of action in the North Sea. Fully funded, no debt.

SQZ another oiler in the North Sea. No debt, and recent big deal with BP. Difficult to calculate projections but very low PE of 2 approx. Like most oilers, the share price this year is dependant upon the price of oil generally.

ARE Fairly recent float in the specialist area of hiring out gear for events particularly large sporting occasions eg Wimbledon, Open golf. Had problems with US tax authorities last year from a company acquired, but a settlement was reached. Expecting a steady if not spectacular performance.

VLE Must be worth the current share price based on cash alone. Not many new investment as of late, except share buybacks. Management has a good track in turning around companies.

ARC Good performer in 2018, and no reason to sell. Small well managed operation with apparantly low customer turnover.

2018 was a difficult year for a lot of investors, me included. When I was bottom of the pile mid year, I felt too embarrassed to post, but thankfully have staged a bit of a recovery to finish mid table.

Thanks APAD for your diligent work in dealing with the enties, and for all of the contributors during the year. Best wishes for 2019. CS

[redartbmud] 31/12/2018 18:00

True, o wise one.

red

[apad] 31/12/2018 17:55

"But clearly being overweight is in reality far riskier than being underweight."

Unless you have been in a bull market for a decade, janeann!

apad

[redartbmud] 31/12/2018 17:55

Credentials impeccable, but I would not presume to reveal details.
Works independently and will only ever make guarded comments. I have always found them to be very insightful. Do not have knowledge of the model:-(

red

[janeann] 31/12/2018 17:49

mmm red ... Do not be afraid to be significantly underweight ….

that rings very true and has been a driver to add too early.

And yes I have also sold some good purchases far too early as well. But clearly being overweight is in reality far riskier than being underweight.

[apad] 31/12/2018 17:44

IE00BJSPMJ28.IR is Lindsell

Is this the Buffetology you mean?
ConBrio Sanford Deland UK Buffettology I (GB00BKJ9C676.L)

apad

[redartbmud] 31/12/2018 17:35

janeann

I would very much echo that sentiment. It is extremely difficult to call bottom for a stock. Bamboo's charts appear to give good guidance.
Any news triggers a reaction, and in particular any update on trading and profitability.
What is unpredictable is the decision of a large investor to change it's position.
In one scenario, it is an institution for it's own book.
The other is client portfolio management, where the house takes a policy step to buy or sell on behalf of discretionary clients.
Another is a broker recommendation.
All can trigger a relatively large move in the share price, and a continuing reaction where the stock continues it's direction of travel.
Big moves, where there is no news can be disconcerting.

I have made the same error as you, on Ltg and Rsw, and indeed Bree but, in the case of the latter, I knew that the construction/housing market was weak.

I kick myself for jumping in too soon and watching further pullbacks. I then compound the error by selling too soon once the share bounces, congratulating myself for getting out with a small profit, only to see the share price continuing to strengthen after the disposal. Spx is a classic case. I should have tripled by trading profit on three trades in the last couple of months.
It is very difficult to wait patiently for the second or third dip before buying, but in most cases that is a sensible strategy. Patience is something that I appear to find a difficult commodity, in these cases.
If you do buy at a very good price, it is far easier to hold onto the share through short term volatility, believing that the bottom has been reached and that the quality of the company will see a return of strength in the share price.

I know someone who has a very strict model for investment:
Hold a limited number of shares - say 8. You cannot manage more than that.
Set your targets eg. PE, ROCE etc etc.
Buy if it hits the lower target and sell when it hits the upper target. When I say sell, not the whole holding, but a very high percentage.
Do not be afraid to be significantly underweight, and hold fast till the targets are reached.
I do believe that he revises targets periodically, based on macro/micro factors at that time.

red

Do not deviate from the plan.

[apad] 31/12/2018 17:33

Mattjos, I take the opposite view, in the sense that I believe governments are in a fiat currency trap that will cause them to artificially drive asset prices without an end in sight (heaven help a single country in this position).
Only individuals can be caught in a debt trap. The US and China cannot.

Where my view is most vulnerable and yours might well dominate is due to the fundamental instability of the banking systems. Politicians have not lanced this boil and it is truly scary that the system could easily go out of control again. It seems to me that banks are 'fiat businesses'.
I'm not worried about US/China trade wars and other macro-problems that are in plain sight.

It is interesting that the crude index is down 25% on the year! This should be cutting costs and driving real economic action.

Hey Ho.

apad🤔

[mattjos] 31/12/2018 17:29

thelong … the Fed usually reacts after the event. Arguably, all we have seen so far is simply a market tantrum as QE unwinds & I would have sympathy with Powell & co concluding that right now.

This sot of unwind has never been carried out before & never in a world so interconnected as it is now. There is almost negligible delay between cause and effect and with such a huge proliferation in complex interlinking derivates … I struggle to see how the central bankers can have much confidence as to the effects of this huge experiment. There's a banana skin out there somewhere .. likely one we've none of us heard about just yet.

[janeann] 31/12/2018 17:22

Fnding an arc at start of year is good for the competition, its finding an arc at the beginning of a decade that is important in my mind. Or a ZTF. Have held both consistently for 3+ years now. And hopefully the story wont change adversely in the next 3.

Id like to think ZOO might be in the same category as well.



.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 31/12/2018 17:13

Matt just seen your gold comments.

I personally think they will be slow to hike again. I feel there may even be some lowering of the dollar - not sure how they'll go about this.

[apad] 31/12/2018 17:10

janeann, I think I posted mine earlier when discussing FEVR in relation to my portfolio as a whole.
Finding an ARC at the beginning of the year is a clear distinguisher - but hey, there are no general lessons from that.
Last year's Stars are this year's worst nightmare.
If you don't want to lose too much in a falling market or are risk averse then Stalwarts are your best bet in the equity market.
The AllShare is down 13% on the year, so one could argue that -5.4% is OK.......but take ARC out and Oops.
I don't think any of us are consistent enough. Five shares is good because the luck of one star in a falling market is seen in context.
apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 31/12/2018 17:09

Hi APAD

GB00B41YBW71 -Fundsmith global equity
GB00BF0LDZ31 -Buffettology
IE00B3NS4D25 -Lindsell Train global equity
SSON.L -Smith investment trust
SGLP.L -Investco Physical Markets Gold

Ive checked these on Yahoo finance so hopefully they'll work ok?
Ive made a last minute change. Swapped Gold for Berkshire - no laughing out there :)

Happy new year all!!!

[mattjos] 31/12/2018 16:53

fwiw, I am rather fearful though for 2019. For about the last 3 years, I have had Q3 2019 pencilled in as the start of the next recession & recent events have magnified that belief.
Most of the developed economies are still caught in a debt trap and I cannot see the Fed getting rates over 3% before the gravitational pull of that debt loading (& its attaching interest) pulls the global economy back to where we were in 2007/8.
As a consequence, I see Gold reacting with a price well over $1,600 during 2019.

It remains to be seen whether the Fed go to the playbook and launch the next round of QE or, whether 'creative destruction' is finally allowed to play out.
In either event, the memories of 07/08 are still so fresh in peoples minds that I do not see much of a delay before Gold rapidly takes off.

Wish I could be more optimistic but, have to listen to my intuition.

2020 is election year in the USA … at some point Trump will feel hugely motivated to juice the markets going in to that.

[janeann] 31/12/2018 16:46

Would be interested to hear anyones' lessons from this year; mine would be not to buy back in too early; Ie buy the dip but endeavour to be certain it has reached the bottom and isn't going to go on falling. Perhaps this is linked with not falling in love with a share; worst 2 culprits for me are acso and ltg where I added more at far too high a price.

[apad] 31/12/2018 16:39

TLST
MY SOFTWARE USES THE Yahoo code.
For UK shares one adds .L to the epic code.
US shares like MSFT go through unaltered.

The only one of yours I could get the software to recognise was SSON.L

Please let me have the appropriate codes.

apad

[redartbmud] 31/12/2018 16:24

On reflection, perhaps we didn't do so badly after all in 2018:

Investors will be glad to see the back of 2018 after many global stock markets suffered their worst year in a decade.

The FTSE 100's traditional early New Year's Eve close saw it end the year down 12% at 6,728.13 points.

Big European and Asian markets faced similar losses in 2018, while the main US indexes saw their worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

US-China trade woes and slower global growth are among issues blamed for the poor showing.

Analysts have also cited US political uncertainty and interest rate rises as contributing factors.

A longer BBC news article.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 31/12/2018 16:02

Hi APAD.

Thanks for keeping slots open.
If I'm not to late can I submit these funds, investment trusts and Berkshire shares.

FUQUIT - Fundsmith global equity
BDAADV - UK Buffettology fund
7GGLOE - Lindsell Train Global equity
SSON - Smithson Investment trust
BRK/B/N - Berkshire hathaway B shares

Ive included the ticker code that my broker uses. Hopefully these'll tally with your system.

I'll give reasons for choices tmo if that ok. Mainly - they buy repeat business businesses with low debt and high returns on equity.
This'll not win any comp but will be interesting to see how this approach performs through out the year.

Note - I don't own any currently but this will be my way back into the markets when things settle down a bit. I have owned all 5 previously.

[multibagger] 31/12/2018 15:53

Hi Apad,

I am staying with 4 out of the 5 from last year

ARC CYAN IDEA LTG

and adding BUR (replacing IQE from 2018 entry)

Stories much the same...and hopefully a better 2019 overall.

Still pleased that I finished the year in the mid single digit positive % (having sold IQE earlier on in the year).

Wishing good luck and all a very happy and successful New Year 2019 !

[piedro] 31/12/2018 15:46

Hi APAD,

I see you have kept me a slot.
The same 5 as last year please.
(TSTL/SRT/OCN/CAM/MGNS)
None of the stories have changed.

Piedro