Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 31/12/2018 15:17

Iomax comments on 2018 entries:

MGP - leader in its field IT system for radiologists), forecast CARG of 20% for next 3/4 years, with gross margins not far short of 50%.

FUTR - Physical/digital specialist publishing, significantly transformed over last couple of years to focus on maximising overall online proposition.

BUR - Market leader in litigation finance, strong track record, industry still at an early stage.

HL. - Leading fintech in UK online platform space, ambitious plans for further expansion, yet barely scratching the surface of target UK savings market.

CVSG - Leading veterinary consolidator, still only have c 14% of UK market (strong acquisition pipeline), strong cross selling of services/continuing to add new/complementary services/ expanding overseas, recent correction overdone.

[apad] 31/12/2018 14:51

Sorted then, apologies, Iomax99.
apad

[apad] 31/12/2018 14:46

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[lomax99] 31/12/2018 14:37

No worries, my 5 for 2018 were: CVSG, BUR, HL., FFX & MGP.

[apad] 31/12/2018 14:37

-3.9% Iomax.
I have added it back into the record.

Iomax99(MGP/FUTR/BUR/HL./CVSG) -3.9%

[apad] 31/12/2018 14:34

Found it!!

Hold all five, final two are LTBH, and have held for quite some time. Part time investor/serial lurker.

MGP - leader in its field IT system for radiologists), forecast CARG of 20% for next 3/4 years, with gross margins not far short of 50%.

FUTR - Physical/digital specialist publishing, significantly transformed over last couple of years to focus on maximising overall online proposition.

BUR - Market leader in litigation finance, strong track record, industry still at an early stage.

HL. - Leading fintech in UK online platform space, ambitious plans for further expansion, yet barely scratching the surface of target UK savings market.


CVSG - Leading veterinary consolidator, still only have c 14% of UK market (strong acquisition pipeline), strong cross selling of services/continuing to add new/complementary services/ expanding overseas, recent correction overdone.

[redartbmud] 31/12/2018 14:29

Well, a marginal improvement over 2017. A least I was in the black. Everyone seems to have taken a kicking at the end of the year.

red

[apad] 31/12/2018 14:27

Iomax, I looked for your entry and I suspect it got deleted by accident.

Let me have the entries and I'll have a go at recreating it.

Apologies,
apad

[hydrus] 31/12/2018 14:01

Finished the year up 25.4% partly due to some heavy selling in the summer. I am still quite heavily in cash although started an income portfolio for long term and taken advantage of some good yields. Will ignore it now and concentrate on growth portfolio again.Looking closely to see how QUIZ does as could be back in there if Xmas trading has been ok.

[lomax99] 31/12/2018 13:37

Any idea how I ended up? Not great, I suspect. Thanks

[lomax99] 31/12/2018 12:53

Well so much for my c. 30% up, market turbulence in the last couple of months certainly took it's toll - ended up 9.8% on the calendar year. No doubt pedestrian to some, and miles behind the 38.4% increase I achieved last year, but I will take it. Hoping for better in 2019, although expect choppy waters early on. HNY everyone.

[mattjos] 31/12/2018 11:56

here are my mainly contrary picks:

STCM: Same reasons as last year. Valued way below replacement / buyout cost. Paying a dividend, circa 4.65% Yield. Trading in 2018 well ahead of 2017. New II investor in the form of Apollo recently building position

CNG: Finally now back in production after the 2017 catastrophic avalanche that halted production, just as they first got going. Majority shareholder has been extremely patient and supportive during this period. Huge proven resource with plenty more to be proven up in the years ahead

TRT: Their iTrack system is now finally showing promising signs of increased market penetration based on a subscription model. two new Institutional investors have recently taken stakes in the company (Criseren Investments & Harwood Capital). As breakeven draws closer, the notional £1.65 / share of carry-forward tax losses should become a bigger determinant of the share price.

AAZ: 2019 should be the best ever year in terms of production & profits + now paying healthy 6%+ dividend. They finally have the cash & human resources to properly explore their Gedabek assets & start development at Ordubad.

SYM: Despite the negative press re. plastics use & the EU resistance to their technology, sales outside EU continue to do well. They have a big pipe of distributors & now flowing new products through that pipe. Sales increase should quickly drop through to bottom line. Somerston Capital now hold 21.8% & have seat on the board.

[janeann] 31/12/2018 11:27

Mildly tempted to switch my entry from ztf to spe; merely on the basis of the strength of ztf and the perceived/relative weakness of spe. I hold both.

[redartbmud] 31/12/2018 11:21

No justice in the investing world:
AMS; Bree; Lloy; Ltg rallying from the lows recently experienced.
I was hoping that the would stay below the parapet for a few hours longer, so that I got off to a flying start in the 2019 competition:-)

Remember that a year is a long time in investing.

red

[apad] 31/12/2018 10:54

Last day for Comparison entries. Strictly from Board contributors only.

Interesting comments. Don't understand SDX weakness, homebrew. Board doesn't help - usual cesspit.


S&P futures up 0.75% bodes well.

Looks like my BOO top-slice exercise might be going to do well. With the update due in two weeks I'm going to wait. If I am correct in expecting decent results then I'll follow the trendline to make a decision when to top-slice.
Need counselling, red.

Looking at a possible first holding in CPC.

apad😊

[apad] 31/12/2018 09:44

Thursday's Next will have a big influence on my BOO & Sosander holdings. More particularly the on-line growth.

I'm set up for the Comparison results. LSE closes 12:30 but US open all day. I doubt whether there will be a lot of trading unless it is driven by end of year deadlines.

tlst.
I would expect trend lines to be valid representations over the short term - the shorter the better.
Feedback loops create trend lines, whether these loops were those used by animal momentum traders of yesteryear or those loops used by the many orders of magnitude more defining algorithmic trades of today.
They become broken or change direction when there is a war with China or a rns profit warning from ASOS, so graphical representations become much less defining over the medium term.
Over the very long term they come back into their own - not in terms of flags and head&shoulders, but in terms of whether a company can establish a trend through changing market conditions, and what sort of pattern emerges.
This is not a criticism of those who can get information out of more complicated pattern representations, it's just as far as I feel comfortable with going.
FWIW
apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 30/12/2018 20:48

Hi Bamboo2

The DC. graph I looked at was on ig.com. However the Dixons and Carphone merger was in 2014 so on reflection I'm not so sure about the 121 share price support in 2012 having as much relevance. As far as I can tell neither company is represented by that chart pre merger. It could be an amalgamation of both..

There really is a lot to learn but the charts seem be becoming slightly clearer the more I look at them.
I'll have a good read of the getting started in charts book and then I'll have a better understanding of your posts and charts above.

Thank you very much for your time today!

[bamboo2] 30/12/2018 19:32

thelong, Does look like you are on the right lines with both charts.

Had a q look at ocdo. apols in advance for anything obvious that I may have missed.

Could be a H&S. [red]
The rh side of a H&S often forms a triangulation of some type, and/or an Inverse H&S. Invh&S are marked with a green neckline and the tp is 75% of head height, this is marked using the para line tool. It's worth getting into the idea of concurrent patterns.

Support [orange] levels taken from last market priced chart.
Top of Breakaway gap is strong support assuming the news or other event that created it remains true.

[bamboo2] 30/12/2018 18:01

thelong, I don't have all the data for DC. [maybe the ticker changed?]

I did a chart based on the info advfn do have.

Price is in a falling wedge with the apex in the middle of May 2019. There are a number of H&S patterns with the neckline marked in red.

There is no measure tool on advfn charts, so I use the parallel lines tool as a rough measure of the approx. tp [also in red]. The tp for a H&S is 55% of the height between the neckline and top of the head.

In this chart, there is no historical, trendline or sma support for the current price. The tp for the current H&S is approx. 106. Psychological support at approx. 100.

I normally mark support lines in orange. [Because I like oranges. lol]

[apad] 30/12/2018 15:53

Cooltools (ARC G4M ZOO GHH SPX)
Lauders (AMER ARS HCM SIA TXP) 0  0 0
apad (DIS IGG SOS XPD FEVR)
dacian (BVXP CBOX GDWN TM17 RRE)
janeann (ARC ACSO PRSM LTG ZTF)
lomax99 (BUR FUTR HL. FFX ACSO)
Valhamos(D4T4 XPP CHH SDI GHT)
RP19 (CRU D4T4 DRV FFX VLE)
redartbmud (AMS BREE LLOY LTG XPD)
attrader (XPD GLE IGG BUR NPSNY)
modform (AIEA, BILN, MACF, MYX, WATR)

Cooltools
ARC - long time holder, ex employee, own 2% approx, 50% of portfolio
G4M - ltm, bought when 170p, now 540p, but price has been dithering for 18 months. Brother is a musician, he brought my attention to it in the early days and I loved the website, value and range - and particularly the feeling of support and being part of it (unlike most resellers, which are buy and forget). Expanding across Europe and US, waiting to see if it results in profits over this Christmas. 20% of portfolio.
ZOO - I'm a geek/nerd, so interested in their cloud based multi-lingual dubbing, sub-titles etc. 10% of portfolio
GHH - relates to my masters in microelectonics and opto-electronics, considering this a low risk stalwart. 10% of portfolio
SPX - bit of a gamble, but like old-school engineering (steam!) with modern applications. 10% of portfolio.

Lauders 0  0 0
AMER - Colombian oiler that has taken a share price hit this year but recent news has been excellent and there has been strong director buying. I believe that things will get better in 2019 providing the oil price holds of course.
ARS - A junior (puppy) copper play. Again taken a major share price hit recently but if good news comes on drilling, partnering and the Cu price strengthens then the appetite could return quickly.
HCM - News due before the end of the year so could strengthen significantly if positive. However, it is Chinese and if news is not so good on the trials and alliances it could take a major hit. If Trump continues his Chinese battles then again could be impacted.
SIA - One of my dogs! Not a puppy but a badly behaving large one. I think the trainer will have sorted it out by new year and its behaviour will improve. Recent news about its Egyptian acquisition that will hopefully be completed in the first half of 2019 will producing some drilling and get the news flowing again. There may be other M&A activity involving the company in the year.
TXP - Another oiler (oil had better perform well in 2019!) based in Trinidad and Tobago. News due before year end again but some important drilling will be undertaken in 2019 with the potential to significantly change the MKT Cap of the company. Should be exciting!

apad
DIS - Could turn out to be a decent rum brand, but might carry lumbering on.
IGG - Oversold income stock. Worldwide bear market risk.
SOS - Looks like its on a roll with very impressive managers/owners.
XPD - Oversold on Brexit fears. Danger of it overdoing it on aero and marine.
FEVR - US potential and a rising divi stream. UK probably saturated.

dacian
BVXP- troponin only a matter of time, one of the best and well run co's on aim. I'll stick with it till the story changes.
CBOX- take away cake shops with steady roll-out over the next couple of years, family run and skin in the game. Never tasted one.
GDWN- my favourite uk engineer. Unless we get a nasty recession the investment phase over the last few years should start to deliver and they pay a dividend.
TM17- a games developer and publisher run by a ceo with funky, red hair. It's a bet on her ability to discover and sign successful indie games.
RRE- A bit of a Serica story but younger and cheaper. It aspires to pay a dividend.

lomax99
BUR Low PE, some way off it’s highs. clear market leader in litigation finance, a sector still in it’s infancy.
FUTR Digital media innovator, recent transformative acquisition, strong recent/anticipated growth.
HL. Clear D2C market leader, high margins, solid structural growth story, now widening focus to target the significant wealth/cash savings market.
FFX An ISP, constantly expanding their range of services, delivered efficiently using their own online platform. Strong growth to-date/anticipated.
ACSO Fall overdone, almost on a normal PE! Good growth prospects ahead, an innovator.

Valhamos 0  0 0
D4T4 - My biggest holding and in the comparison again for next year. Continuing growth in the Celebrus customer data platform with strong relationships with Teradata, SAS and Pega.
XPP - Full benefit of recent acquisitions still to come , no direct exposure to consumer electronics but share price has retraced over concerns about increasing exposure to semiconductor industry and tariffs on China, the second factory in Vietnam comes on stream in H1 2019.
CHH - Been on my watchlist for a while and finally bought last week - has grown operating margins over the years with higher added value products for exports in the hospitality sector.
SDI - Good mix of organic and acquisitions growth, niche technological businesses so possibly reduced recession risk.
GHT - Hammered recently on profits warning because of contracts held over to 2019. Strong data integrity/control product so expect recovery next year.

RP19 0  0 0
CRU - Plastics fabricator. A number of recent RNS's which show new orders and ahead of previous years. Despite this, the price has not shifted much and think it will catch up next year. Innovating with new products, increasing range of services and pays a dividend. Weakness - Has previously hit bumps in the road to hinder apparent progress and is capital intensive.
D4T4 - Data solutions provider. Effective manipulation of data is integral to many businesses and I can only see it becoming more and more important. Management seem focussed and not on a racy rating. Weakness - Orders can be lumpy and some reliance on a few customers. However, overall I like their offering.
DRV - Engineering and construction consultancy services (planning, project management, dispute resolution etc). Back on track after some poor years when it acquired badly. The sector is experiencing a lot of M&A activity and hopefully may become a target. Weakness - is a business that relies on its people and the nature of the work provides limited visibility. Selected it last year.
FFX - Payments service provider to retail and corporate clients. Executed well to date and has a high level of operational gearing. Recent RNS about entry into the USA could be interesting. Hit by recent wider market downturn. Am backing it to bounce back. Selected it last year.
VLE - Owners buy struggling companies, turns them around and sells them on. Share price largely discounts realistic valuations for VLE's investments. Sold its star performer Impetus Automotive for a considerable premium this year and is sat on a lot of cash. Weakness - They wont be rushed into their next purchase and this may limit potential share price appreciation in the short term. Selected it last year.

reartbmud
AMS - The share price is down almost 20% in the year, and although it has a relatively high PE and a poor dividend yield, there is room for recovery. There is £71m cash in the bank and margins improved. Now is the time for sales to grow in the USA. They have had to reorganize the business there and hopefully greater stability will create better returns. Maybe they will reconsider dividend policy. margins improved.
BREE - Probably a punt based on the level of infrastructure spending in the UK in 2019, but the acquisition of Lagan in Ireland provides another arm to the business. Good positive cashflow is required to pay down the spike in debt, following the last purchase. They have a first -class management who were hewn out of rock, rather than being born. Directors have loaded up in the dip. A 20% recovery wouldn’t be out of reach.
LLOY - Yes, take 2 on the entry. Domestically biased all will depend on the UK economy, but a year is a long time in markets, as 2018 has demonstrated. A 5.92% yield that is ‘guaranteed217; as much as any may prove attractive. If the dividend is slightly improved and profits grow and the ‘fraudulent217; PPI scheme finally winds up, there is scope for recovery in a year in which markets could be flat.
LTG - A management that will never sit on their hands, so more deals will be done to add profits to the organic growth prospects of the existing business. People Fluent will have a full year under the LTG banner, was earnings enhancing from the outset, and cost savings should kick in to greater effect on the bottom line. Cross selling amongst existing businesses should provide organic growth. The company is a strong cash generator.
XPD - Well oversold on Brexit fears, coupled with a falloff in UK consumer spending. The company has a strong footprint within its’ area of operation, with the possibility of further growth through bolt-on acquisitions. The UK market may well be receptive to products imported from markets serviced by the company. A very organized, committed and driven management.

attrader
XPD - Transport and logistics group acquiring smaller firms in easter Europe. ROI on acquired businesses is around 10% so it might not be a great investment in the long run.
GLE - Low cost house builder aiming to double unit production by 2022. It pays decent dividend. Business performance is highly cyclical - needs constant supply of land along with housing demand and availability of mortgages.
IGG - Spread betting business diversifying into SIPP and Index funds. Government is increasing regulation to protect novice punters.
BUR - Litigation finance player investing ever increasing sums of cash for high returns. Low barriers to entry will invite larger players reducing ROI for future investments.
NPSNY (Naspers ADR) - South African tech investor with large stake in Tencent along with other emerging market tech investments. Trading at significant discount to NAV. A crash in tech valuations can dent their performance in coming years.

janeann
ACSO - Global ticketing specialist providing technology to improve customer experience primarily in leisure attractions theme parks etc. Leader in its field. Started out to avoid queueing at theme parks and developed since. Large global customer base. Growing by both expansion and acquisition, and growth expected to continue. Price now at a discount to 1 year ago despite substantial progress.
ARC - Is a small niche player and provides solutions to managing real time market data - both software and consultancy. Number of very high profile clients with recurring revenue streams. Dividend payer and hopefully will gain a few new large clients in 2019.
PRSM - Software company specialising and leading the field in development of robotic process automation particularly of more routing back office tasks enabling the freeing up staff to do more productive tasks. Globally active in events and with a diverse range of high profile partners prsm is at the forefront of the developing technology.
ZTF - Specialist manufacturer of plastic foam for a very broad and diverse range of industries including sports, automotive & construction. Many specialist uses and complex production process. Recent deal with Nike. Expanded production base in China and Poland now coming onstream and plans to expand in UK also. Dividend payer. Leon Boros recently taken a stake.
LTG - is a dividend paying company providing digital learning solutions and interactive media programmes to a broad range of clients including government. Aiming to grow by both broadening its range of products and clients across a broader geographic range as well as via acquisition.

modform
AIEA - Manufactures and distribute commercial flooring and covering. The closure of loss-making residential carpets business means that it's now in a position to concentrate on its commercial flooring business which is growing fast. The forward yield could be as much as 11%, I have been adding on any dips.
BILN - Is one of the leading UK structural steel specialist. It has recently won a contract worth £41m which is much larger than its mcap. Most of the revenue is to be reflected in 2019 financial year. It's very thinly traded with no broker forecast. The current yield of 4.4% and low per should underpin the share price
MACF - Distributes a range of protective packaging, labels designs and prints, high quality self-adhesives, etc. The share price has been hammered during this market sell off due to lack of liquidity. As Internet shopping increases it should benefit from the increased use of packaging. A decent yield and low per makes it attractive in the current climate.
MYX - It provides oil free water technology in the oil and gas industry. It has patented Mycelx polymer which uses molecular cohesion to remove oil from water. Before the market sell off the share price was around 240p and although it won a new contract from SABIC which upgraded the net profit by 25%, the share price has fallen to 180p. I have been buying for a while on any weakness, but it's incredibly illiquid with very large spread.
WATR - Is a leading provider of precision leak detection solution for potable and non-potable water. It mainly operates in USA through franchisees. The share price has come down during the recent market sell off to a reasonable level. The company may do 13 to 14p eps in 2018 and at 230p share price doesn't look demanding for a company growing so fast. It has completed the first year of 5year growth plan. I have recently bought back a small holding with the aim of adding if share price drifts lower.