Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[attrader] 02/9/2018 18:52

Spot on Big7

[big7ime] 02/9/2018 17:15

Many a stock relies on the price of oil. HTG is a simple play on poo imo. If poo rises above $100 HTG will be a lot higher. The thing is that most financial press reporters get it wrong time and time again so I avoid those type of articles.
A couple of yrs ago was a great time to load up on quality oilers and oil service cos. I have done alright on PMO/ENQ/RDSB/BP./GTC and await with great patience for AMER to finally come through.

[redartbmud] 02/9/2018 13:27

APAD

True, but when can you ever predict when somebody will write an article about a company, and maybe the reasons behind that decision.

red

[apad] 02/9/2018 13:19

Thanks for the Terry Smith pointer, homebrew. Always an entertaining listen.

That's a view that we have shared (HTG) in the past, red.
It's just that my quick look at the recent results did not predict the FT headline.

apad

[janeann] 02/9/2018 12:31

I generally don't look at things in terms of growth or income; more in terms of risk and the overall increase in capital. I do have income stocks but I see them more as creating wealth but with a lover risk/ and lower return than growth stocks. I also have to do less work in keeping up to-date with their activities, rnss' etc. And when growth start paying a dividend (providings its meaningful) that signals to me that the company has confidence in its earnings and generally this means to me the risks are reducing

Then I am fortunate in not needing income from investments to eat.

[homebrewruss] 02/9/2018 12:15

Thanks for the considered reply red.

I guess my point is, if you have a strategy that provides approx 15-20% returns most years (a la fundsmith or your own regular folio) then why not stick with that and take your 5% income out of the profits.

[redartbmud] 02/9/2018 11:08

I do not think that it is appropriate to think wholly in terms of a portfolio being restricted to income alone.
A fixed income investment in a bond will yield a fixed return over the term, and your personal yield is based on the price paid over par. This investment will fluctuate, based on prevailing interest rates, and to a lesser extent, the health of the company.
Regulated businesses, such as utilities, may provide a good return, but Government intervention may have a significant effect on the share price. In the wrong direction!

All companies have an aim to grow the business and compete against their peers.
The larger/largest businesses grow at a slower rate than small caps. By definition their opportunities are far more restricted by size, the exception being corporate actions of takeovers and mergers. They would expect to offer a steady and 'guaranteed' return of dividends with modest annual increases.
Medium sized companies have the strength of the balance sheet to allow them more flexibility in both organic growth and corporate activity to increase market capitalisation and dividend returns.
Small cap companies are more reliant on the growth model, with an expected lower dividend return, or matbe no policy to return dividends to shareholders. Their capital resources are more limited and are normally better employed in working capital and necessary capital expenditure that is required to grow the business and therefore the share price. Their size can make them more vulnerable to factors they are less able to control than their peers.

Simplistic, sorry for that.

red

[hydrus] 02/9/2018 10:40

Homebrew totally agree - my portfolio is and always will be growth focussed. However I guess if one is looking to rely on some form of withdrawals from a portfolio then a good quality income portfolio for that part is perhaps psychologically a lot more comfortable?

[redartbmud] 02/9/2018 09:26

Htg

Went into massive expansion programme, which was almost completed, just before the collapse in the oil price. Unbelievable timing!!
They worked hard just to stay afloat, then they re-structured and mothballed plant and equipment.
The oil price has moved in their favour and there are more orders around.
I think that capital can be better employed elsewhere, where prospects for returns are better.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 02/9/2018 08:55

I know that Kier has been discussed many times here. Just a heads up to say the short positions have been growing strongly this year.

From a numbers point of view Kier does not exude the attributes of a young Usain Bolt and from a nature point of view Kier is pretty fragmented - its not in one tough business but many - House construction, support services, civil engineering, public sector etc..

I'm not sure if Kier is an out and out short but it'll have to work hard to stand still.

Last year final results were published on the 21st of Sept.

[apad] 02/9/2018 08:53

Some of the tiddlers are a popularity poll that can be dangerous if they go out of fashion.
PIs really can affect the price!
A turnaround, for whatever reason could cause equally steep falls.
My metric for these sorts of stocks is rate of increase in turnover, rather than the more complex 'financial efficiency' metrics.
FWIW
apad

[homebrewruss] 02/9/2018 08:43

Income portfolios: I watched the fundsmith AGM last night and Terry Smith does a brief section on why they don't like the idea (from around 1.08)

I'm not in the position to consider an income portfolio right now but I'm inclined to agree and think it would be better to go for growth or an ROCE based selection and then cream the top off your profits periodically. Alternatively at least choose dividend paying stocks that are also likely to grow.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 02/9/2018 08:30

You're right Janeann. For me its a great lesson in not putting limitations on shares.
let the winners run i guess.

-

[janeann] 02/9/2018 08:18

Thanks for doing the comparison apad. Never looked at htg.

Amazed some stocks have reached the heights they have; prsm for one but also others like gaw, kws idea and fevr.

[apad] 01/9/2018 11:15

In the debate on FEVR valuation I referred to the value of a brand - distinct from valuing a company.
Coke purchase of Cost evidences this in spades - 16.4x EV/EBITDA!

As DIS looks like surviving, initially I was sceptical, it might be an additional reason for a puppy purchase. EveryotherbloodythingIwaslookingat seems to have celebrated the end of Aug by jumping in price.

apad
ps
Anybody seen the Lex column on HTG I'd welcome their view as it seems, from the headline, my skimming of the results might have been in error.

[apad] 01/9/2018 10:53

FT headline:
Lex Oil & Gas industry
Hunting: top gun Premium
Little room for error in group’s shares if boom in oil market loses its spark

[apad] 01/9/2018 10:43

Interesting that, except for Mattjos (special circumstances) initial negatives tend to carry on not performing (unless, of course, they include ARC).
apad.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 01/9/2018 10:25

Thanks again APAD.
If it wasn't for IDP I'd be doing ok :)

Shares based harry enfield dragons den skit - made me chuckle.

[big7ime] 31/8/2018 23:56

Cheers Hb. I do have high expectations. The QXT fundamentals are excellent, the political climate towards their mkt is becoming more favourable across new export territories for them. I also like that the hordes haven't arrived. It must have the quietest thread for such a quality and well performing stock.
Good w-end all.

[hydrus] 31/8/2018 22:48

Multi bagger - David Stredder is a very good networker and social organiser. I'm not convinced he is actually a great investor. Would be very interested to see his average annual return.

[homebrewruss] 31/8/2018 21:00

Big7ime, no the htf requires at least a 90% rise in the prior 2 months but it does look like QXT chart is breaking out.

The htf is one of the few patterns I know but it is the best performing. Bamboo2 is the expert, I'm still working my way through the bulkowski book!

[big7ime] 31/8/2018 20:44

GTC misunderstood :(

The next half is going to look amazing though 😁

[big7ime] 31/8/2018 20:42

Good eow for QXT (not to be confused with APADs qtx)

Homebrewruss - am I mistaken or is the chart exhibiting a high &tight flag?


Or even an ascending triangle. Either way looks very bullish with a breakout at 480 possible next wk.

[multibagger] 31/8/2018 17:19

Janeann,

Agree that David Stredder made a good call with ACSO and IDEA...but some like CRAW have been a big disaster. Yes, IDEA is a "buy and hold forever" one (at this stage).