Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[panic investor] 02/6/2018 11:26

You should avoid associating news with charts for a start - take the non-farm payroll yesterday - it pushed the DAX up but only to a trend line I had on the DAX - then it retreated.There are plenty of charting strategies out there but if you decide to go that route keep it simple imho

[hydrus] 02/6/2018 11:22

Red I don't think it does. However, if enough people believe in chart patterns then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, only to be punctured as soon as the company fundamentals change.Mod - ZOO looks very strong, hopeful of very good performance over the next couple of years. Still got 60% of my original holding, average price just over 11p.

[redartbmud] 02/6/2018 11:13

I have been musing on the subject of charts.
There has to be a correlation between macro data, micro data on the sector and the company, but how does that translate into a chart?
I appreciate that there is momentum based on transaction volume, but that is historic. How does that predict the future movement?
This particularly relate to breakouts and retracement and filling gaps?

red

[modform] 01/6/2018 22:27

Yes Hydrus, I ended up buying some of my USA stocks at higher prices than I had sold, but glad I kept AMZN. BTW, ZOO looks pretty good now

[hydrus] 01/6/2018 21:31

Like AMZN hey Mod - keeps on going.

[modform] 01/6/2018 21:28

Bamboo, FYI I got GAW in my sipp and ISA at around 650p when I mentioned them here a while ago. I have tried to trade it in my ISA and just left it in my sipp. The clear winner is my sipp by miles, so buy and hold is the right strategy for quality companies, but as you say practicing it is not that easy.

[rp19] 01/6/2018 20:04

Ntq - it is the outlook that is key. Batten down the hatches when times are tough. Make hay when the sun shines. That's the theory at least.

[big7ime] 01/6/2018 19:05

You've made me feel a bit better about it bamboo as I did buy the dip at the time of BVXP which is performing nearly as well
Swings and roundabouts
Sorry, I shouldn't have taken it out on you. Do Keep your chart posts coming, looking at some in hindsight you'd think would prepare yourself for future trading
But so far it has alluded me. I would be interested in your thoughts of the chart on KIE which to me looks good for a recovery - a curving bottom maybe
I do like curvy bottoms
Good weekend

[hydrus] 01/6/2018 17:15

Bought GAW a couple weeks ago finally. Only 8% up is so but it's a start.BOO purchased at 180p and 190p so looking good so far. I reckon we now have three stocks in common APAD. Exited IHC with a 10% loss after changing my mind.

[bamboo2] 01/6/2018 17:09

Big, as I have previously said I am sorry if some info I have put on this website has caused a loss of profit. Hopefully you managed to employ the capital elsewhere in an alternative position. Generally you seem to do very well!

Trading chart patterns does require belief in a set of basic concepts and statistics. These have been prepared in an easy to comprehend manner by Bulkowski. He has done the hard work, and backtested it.

For example, from this information we know that 45% of confirmed Head and Shoulder patterns will not achieve their respective target price, but 55% will. If we are trading these patterns, we have to accept the statistics. There is only one type of chart pattern that has an almost guaranteed outcome, and that is a confirmed High and Tight Flag.

With regard to trendline/neckline positioning, you have to examine some of Bulkowski's examples. There are level necklines and up and down sloping necklines. All can fit the definintion of a Head and Shoulders pattern.

The best way to learn about the validity of different necklines is to start by finding and drawing trendlines and necklines yourself. Use charts of stocks you maybe already own, find a few H&S and see if they reached their tp. I can post some examples over the weekend if of interest.

[apad] 01/6/2018 11:32

I can see that, Big7. I looked at it (out of Leeds Uni?) back in the day but didn't buy.
Must have another gander.

NTQ last two FY figures - picture of a company trying to survive:

Year 2016 2017
Employees 21 19
Free Cash Flow (EBIT+tax+interest) (3.82) (1.01)
Cash outflow from investing ($m) (0.29) (0.45)
Ratio: EBIT/Revenue -75.4% -23.6%
Ratio: Cash Outflow Investing /revenue 4.6% 9.3%
Ratio: Free Cash Flow/Revenue -60.7% -21.0%


Doubling the percentage of revenue in product development when the free cash flow dropped to a third was a good hint that they 'might' survive.

apad😎

[big7ime] 01/6/2018 10:14

GTC the same APAD, 15m co in same sector, no trades yesterday
But when it moves it really moves
And is undervalued as imo profits of a few mil are not far off

[felix99] 01/6/2018 10:05

GAW I bought horribly on a spike on a trading update whilst out and leaving market orders and watched it fall to £20. Just sold last lots for a profit when I was down bigtime at £20 - pleased I held on but on the basis I wasn't going to sell I should have bought more but its all phsychology.

The Art of Execution was a great read - I should have bought more or sold at £20 and not do nothing.

Started to accumulate MPE again one to tuck away imho. The old rejected bidder is still buying ………;...

[apad] 01/6/2018 09:45

There were 3,800 shares traded in NTQ yesterday - one transaction.

It's a £22m company that is well off the radar.

June's results need to be exceptional for me to continue with my holding. If they are just good I'll top-slice. If they are not good I'll be stuck with an illiquid holding.

Directors own 6% - I'd prefer that to be higher.

apad

[apad] 01/6/2018 08:58

I wonder if algorithmic trading makes looking for short term patterns more valuable because they might be creating predictive trends?
apad

[janeann] 01/6/2018 08:27

thanks big7; nice to see they're adding ltg also!

ps Im not convinced bamboos is right re spe either; (and I hope hes not)

[apad] 01/6/2018 08:25

The Comparison distribution of performances are a similar shape to those at the end of last year.
I would have thought that, given the market has gone nowhere, the performance would be over a more restricted range.
Small company effect I guess.
apad😎

[big7ime] 01/6/2018 08:25

GAW another beneficiary
I sold half after reading bamboo's H&S theory whilst learning about charts. Bad mistake and not impressed having seen others he miscalled with the h&S

In my opinion (still learning) if it isn't a very clear pattern it isn't v reliable e.g in the case of the rising i.e. lop sided H&S and you are too right regarding info overload

[big7ime] 01/6/2018 08:17

This might explain acso - trusts dealing showing after the bell in a no. Of stocks

P.8 lists additions to the index

[janeann] 01/6/2018 07:37

there are about a dozen transactions at that amount at close of play on acso ; all looks as tho something was awry with the website - and thay had said they had problems. Mind some were at 2610 which marks a new high if genuine.

thanks apad

[droyden] 01/6/2018 07:30

PI. What does a 3636 transaction signify?

[janeann] 31/5/2018 23:08

Bamboo I did contemplate that but given it was institutions one would have thought they wouldn't be gullible (was going to say bamboozled - but thought you might not appreciate it!!)

No comparison results apad - was anticipating a g and t (or g + f) this eve but it will have to wait!

[bamboo2] 31/5/2018 21:00

APAD, I make mistakes too, eg reloading SPE after a sequence of excellent trades, only to have the rump of the holding hit stop loss a few days later. I would have kept the remainder, that was bought more affordably, but ZOO looked better positioned, in the near term.

I looked at the hourly PTSG chart you mentioned earlier in the thread. The 14.00-15.00 time did look a good turn.

I tend to stick to daily charts, as I see shorter timeframes putting me in danger of info overload. Re, ptsg, The long term rising lower trendline is also a H&S neckline, and I would be wary if you start seeing eod closes below this line. [around 160 is historical support]

I admire your buy and hold strategy. I have tried, but I feel as uncomfortable in a highly profitable trade, as I do in a losing trade. I probably have mild adhd from childhood which may account for this situation.

janeann, I am now starting to wonder if the SPE price had been pumped in advance of the placing? Will look at chart a bit later. I would like to be in position before update if possible.

[panic investor] 31/5/2018 18:28

Anybody spot the 3636 transactions on ACSO this afternoon :-)