Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 04/4/2023 06:41

Excellent progress indeed. VLG made 4.3p adjusted EPS - this is hidden away in Note 5, but should have been highlighted at the top of the RNS.

Most importantly, the order book is 114% ahead of last year and the outlook is very positive "with the momentum from a strong 2022 also continuing into 2023".

[bagpuss67] 04/4/2023 06:27

Nice to see. Making progress :)

[celeritas] 04/4/2023 06:18

Cracking set of results, 23 will be a good year.

[brummy_git] 04/4/2023 06:09

Impressive numbers today from OTC healthcare products group, Venture Life.

Beating FY'22 EBITDA expectations (Act £9.0m vs Consensus £8.5m) and adding it was 'on track' to hit FY'23 estimates.

All the details here.

[celeritas] 03/4/2023 14:35

I had circa 0.8x comes year end.. VLG have 1x.

[celeritas] 03/4/2023 14:34

This from LSE, thanks Agricore.

've been intrigued by the seemingly innocuous phrase:
"Group leverage 1.4x at end of 2022 is expected to fall in 2023 to 1.0x or lower by the end of 2023, due to the cash generative nature of the business, now including the highly cash generative Earol brand."
The analyst coverage from Singers estimates a £8.5m adj EBITDA for 2022 and £14m net debt......
Well that is a 1.65x ratio so either the debt is lower or the profit is higher than that assumed by Singers.
For example is actual adj profits for 2022 is £10m and net debt is £14m then that's 1.4x.
Either way that's a surprise to the upside.... for Singers and Cenkos at least.

I've estimated using the HL run rate profit plus the VLG run rate operating profit that once again the 2023 numbers are simply too conservative versus what's happening on the ground. In the update 13th March it's revealed that the ratio has dropped to 1.3X as at 28/02/23 suggesting that 1X by year end pro rata we are looking at more like a ratio of 0.7X.

But this assumes a level run rate. We know that there's a growing order book, China, contribution from Earol. With a conservative 17% growth (as seen in 2022) an adj EBITDA/debt of 0.5x or lower.

But Singers speaks to an 2023 "equity free cash flow yield percentage" of 14.3%. Decrypting that Equity is £74m (as at 30/6/22) and 14.3% is £10.6m. So if that's true, FCF 2023 should drive the ratio to about 0.3x by end of 2023.

Whichever metric you consider, compared to current market expectations VLG appears to be cash generative, stable and paying down debt more rapidly than it is being credit for. It gives a potential war chest for further acquisitions but also the idea that dividends could follow. A 4p a share dividend (10% yield) would cost £5m a year. Affordable from FCF. I'm glad the business is paying down debt as debt is expensive (a £1.5m annualised finance cost using June 2022's numbers). But it does highlight the value to the current share price doesn't it?

[celeritas] 31/3/2023 08:37

Venture Life Group PLC Investor Presentation

[celeritas] 30/3/2023 10:56

Looks like that overhang is cleared.

Yeah, I have them down for next week.

[thedudie] 30/3/2023 10:13

I guess results due in the next week or so...
There should be a period of shareprice out-performance coming up!

[eagle eye] 22/3/2023 11:17

Have just contacted VLG.
An RNS will be made shortly to confirm when FY results are due for release.

[celeritas] 22/3/2023 10:38

Interview from 31st Jan 23, worth watching again especially with the Earol update.

[celeritas] 21/3/2023 12:44

BBI cost £36m
HL £13m
Helsinn £4.7m

Total is £53.7 just for those 3 acquisitions since mid 21 which is more than the current mkt cap..

Rivaldo's mention of APH, we do already produce products for them with a contract until Dec 25, it really wouldn't surprise me if they hadn't looked at VLG... Plenty of cost synergies for them..

[celeritas] 21/3/2023 12:29

China is only mouthwash so I'm not getting carried away yet but it will be a huge mkt once it opens up properly especially for our other products, plenty to go at and yes it could eventually be huge.. I'm looking for using more facility capacity, a further percentage push towards own products with increasing margins, cost synergies exploited and to be exploited... Once the debt is sub 1x I'll be looking for a dividend unless another juicy target rears it's head, debt has already gone from 1.5x to 1.3x so looks well on target to be sub 1x by year end, this trajectory suggests 0.8x.... It's the end game here, VLG is building a stable of good products, a one stop shop that will take care of all the leg work for any acquirer..

[rivaldo] 21/3/2023 09:44

APH's prelims today indicate an extremely strong 2023 coming for Kelo-Cote, which should be good news for VLG:

"As indicated in the January trading update Kelo-Cote revenues are expected to build through the year, supported by strong end-consumer demand. The China Cross-border e-Commerce ("CBEC") B2B market for Kelo-Cote has shown early signs of recovery with in-market demand and sales orders increasing over the first two months of the year, and we expect total revenue growth for the entire Kelo-Cote franchise to be above 20% in 2023"

[celeritas] 17/3/2023 21:55

Stemis, PI's are fickle.. Take advantage while you can because the current share price is ridiculous..

[stemis] 17/3/2023 17:34

At the moment it's just PIs throwing their shares away in panic. When this has blown over and the price has gone back up they'll buy them back at the higher price.

[celeritas] 17/3/2023 17:24

The RNS at the start of the week was reassuring, I expect with HSBC taking SVB it'll be business as usual..

[celeritas] 17/3/2023 17:18

The order book is pushed right out from 2 to 3 months to 6 to 7 months so they should have good visibility.. In line will be great, hopefully with improving margins going forward... Supply chain costs are falling so should help..

[eagle eye] 17/3/2023 17:06

FY results to Dec22 are due next Wednesday.
I look forward to the outlook statement, plus seeing expectations for FY 25.
Hopefully forecasts will be lean and mean as there is no room for disappointment in this market.

[celeritas] 17/3/2023 10:29

It amazes me the market does turn up these anomalies of severely undervalued companies... Apart from mouthwash which people have forgotten about again after covid the company is going from strength to strength, new markets are opening, yeah these take years to build but they are opening, growth will build and build. These aren't small mkts either, Brazil and Germany are huge never mind once we eventually open up in China again. New in house organic products are promised so I expect to see news on that front this year, cost synergies of acquired companies will also feed in.. Capacity isn't a problem either with plenty of scope in Italy and Sweden for a lot more production...
There's also always the chance of being taken over with so many self care products under one umbrella, it takes all the leg work away for any acquiring company..

[celeritas] 14/3/2023 16:37

Gross margins should show they are firmly in the 40s come the next lot of results, I expect they'll pass mid 40s once the full year is out.. I'm also looking forward to see how products are doing on Amazon Germany which is the largest in Europe, particularly Balance Activ which has also launched in Brazil courtesy of Bayer..

[celeritas] 13/3/2023 12:32

Great communication plus the added bonus of an unexpected update which shows VLG is growing strongly.. Net debt after the Earol takeover was 1.5x circa the end of 22, it's already at 1.3x, great going..

[eagle eye] 13/3/2023 10:59

Reassuring details on SVB and good to see the opportunity used for a trading update.
I'm impressed by management's ability to communicate well and allay investor's concerns.

[qs99] 13/3/2023 10:39

Really nice update IMO....

[rivaldo] 13/3/2023 09:01

Indeed - and the trading commentary in today's RNS provides even more reassurance:

"The Group's audited results for the year ended 31(st) December 2022 are expected to be published around the end of the first quarter of 2023 and the Group expects that these will be at least in line with market expectations. Trading momentum has continued in the first two months of the current year and the Group has seen strong cash generation as expected which has reduced Group leverage to 1.3x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA. Liquidity is sufficient and stable, and the Board do not envisage any impact or risk to the business arising from events at SVB.

Jerry Randall, Chief Executive Officer, commented: "The Group has had a strong start to 2023 and seen very good cash generation off the back of strong trading in Q4 2022, and is trading in line with our expectations. The acquisiton of HL Healthcare Limited is integrating well into the Group and contributing positively to EBITDA and cashflow. As stated the Group has no deposits with Silicon Valley Bank, and so is not exposed to any deposit risk."