Velocys Share Discussion Threads

[visionon] 21/7/2017 08:38

So if the US is to the main HQ will this be the prelude to switching listing to US market ? GW Pharma did such a thing, albeit they had been dual listed for a few years before that happened. Or even going private, which presumably the 3 major holders could heavily influence.

Any thoughts gac141 ? from your knowledge of the company.

[gac141] 21/7/2017 08:20

This does seem to make a lot of sense. Having a major base here in the UK would appear not necessary vand the pilot plant really has been moved now so why keep it.

The business model offers very attractive opportunities in the US and I think one 1400 bpd plant could make many tens of millions a year in profit.

It is sad to see Susan go but the business is very different now and I am sure it was a family decision. I wish her well.

I hope for a greater understanding of the potential profits from these plants going forward from the company.....

[gac141] 20/7/2017 19:02

Well they certainly can do CTL..they have a project which has been on slow burn for quite a while for CTL.

[fluky] 20/7/2017 18:51

Natural gas is still a good feedstock for the Velocys technology, but also here there is uncertainty: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-19/gas-lobbies-for-attention-as-perry-aims-to-aid-coal-on-the-grid. Maybe they should consider CTL...

[visionon] 20/7/2017 15:12

hxxp://biodieselmagazine.com/articles/2516095/bill-introd-to-extend-phase-out-biodiesel-blenders-tax-credit

A bit confusing this one. But I think the gist is that they want to encourage domestic biodiesel plants by transferring incentive to domestic production and away from the blending of imported biodiesel. I.e. Create more jobs and improve energy independence.

Again it looks helpful. VLS objective is to produce biodiesel in the USA from woody biomass etc. That creates plant jobs and sustains forestry jobs. It also offers arguably a more sustainable alternative to making wood pellets and then exporting them to Europe to be burnt to generate power and heat.

[visionon] 20/7/2017 15:02

hxxp://biodieselmagazine.com/articles/2516097/california-legislators-extend-lcfs-cap-and-trade-programs

Helpful.

[arf dysg] 20/7/2017 10:38

Velocys is in the cloud! Velocys is in the cloud! Velocys is in the cloud!

This technical analysis is so powerful. Look - it's an outreaching pennant! It's a weak sword of Damocles! It's a Sushi Slide! It's a Raspberry Ripple! We've got to buy RIGHT NOW!!

[haydock] 20/7/2017 09:11

AB. To back up your thoughts
hxxp://www.ichimokutrader.com/
Velocys
In the cloud

19-Jul-17
 47.00 
▲
 Wed
VLS
 London 
19-Jul-17

Senkou Span A crossed above Senkou Span B
 47.00 
Bull
 Senkou Span Cross
Neutral
18-Jul-17
 46.50 
Bull
 Kijun Sen Cross
Neutral

[andrewbaker] 19/7/2017 11:57

There's a gap to cover at 55p on the way back up, plus when over 65p, it's close to breaking the uptrend resistance line. Even if it just stays in that trendline, it's a sure northwards ride, though a tad slower than I'd like. Once over 50p, I'll be tempted to add some more (and there's a temptation now, but I already hold loads: someone taking an initial position could do well now, IMHO.)

[fluky] 17/7/2017 14:59

Not everyone in the US thinks the recent EPA rules regarding the renewable fuels are as positive as gac141 believes. Here is DuPont's opinion which says that the RFS uncertainty drives investment abroad (www.eenews.net/tv/videos/2046/transcript). Although this might be good for deploying the Velocys technology in the UK.

[tongosti] 15/7/2017 15:55

The second coming has been a matter of time over the last 2000 years as well!Velocys missed the boat years back. The future looks very unpromising now (unless you a director of course).

[gac141] 14/7/2017 12:16

Surely just a matter of time...



Thanks Dave for this.

[gac141] 09/7/2017 12:50

This came out over the G20 weekend.

US- The US would seek "to work closely with other countries to help them access and use fossil fuels more cleanly and efficiently".

[way2000] 07/7/2017 14:32

This looks very promising. All we need is Trump to reverse his climate change stance and we will be away.

[gac141] 07/7/2017 14:02

WASHINGTON – (July 5, 2017) Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) signed a proposed rule setting the minimum amount of renewable fuels that must be supplied to the market in calendar year 2018 under the Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) program. Today’s action proposes volume requirements and associated percentage standards that maintain renewable fuel volumes at levels comparable to the 2017 standards, recognizing limits to the growth of cellulosic and advanced biofuels.

EPA is committed to successfully administering the RFS consistent with the direction entrusted to the Agency by Congress and is on track to meet the November 30th statutory deadline to make today’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) final. The proposed volumes are based on requirements under the law and an analysis of current market dynamics, including energy demand, biofuel production, and market constraints. The proposed standards will help stabilize the renewable fuels program and provide certainty for stakeholders.

“Increased fuel security is an important component of the path toward American energy dominance,” said EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt. “We are proposing new volumes consistent with market realities focused on actual production and consumer demand while being cognizant of the challenges that exist in bringing advanced biofuels into the marketplace. Timely implementation provides certainty to American refiners, the agriculture community and broader fuels industry, all of which play an important role in the RFS program.”

Some key elements of today’s action:
· Non-advanced or “conventional” renewable fuel volumes are maintained at the 15-billion gallon target set by Congress.
· The biomass-based diesel standard for 2019 would be maintained at the 2018 levels of 2.1 billion gallons.
· EPA is beginning technical analysis that will inform a future rule to reset the statutory volumes for cellulosic, advanced, and total biofuels. The law requires this reset when certain conditions are met.

EPA is also taking comment on addressing concerns that some RFS obligations are increasingly met with imported fuel from Brazil, Argentina and Indonesia. Additionally, the Agency is assessing higher levels of ethanol-free gasoline and bolstering an existing memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission​ (CFTC) to analyze and address a host of market concerns, including the need for increased transparency.

“The Clean Air Act requires EPA to reset volume targets when certain conditions are met. We expect those conditions to be met in the near future, so we are conducting technical analysis now, to inform future reset rules,” said Administrator Pruitt.
Proposed and Final Renewable Fuel Volume Requirements for 2014-2019
2017 Proposed 2018 Proposed 2019
Cellulosic biofuel (million gallons): 311 238 n/a
Biomass-based diesel (billion gallons): 2.0 2.1* 2.1
Advanced biofuel (billion gallons): 4.28 4.24 n/a
Renewable fuel (billion gallons): 19.28 19.24 n/a
*Biomass-based diesel standard is final for 2018.

[ny boy] 07/7/2017 12:25

Gap to 92p if all goes well.

Neutral -Medium term, Jun 30, 2017 Analysis Explanation

VELOCYS PLC has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel. This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development. Has reacted back after the break of the rectangle formation. There is support around 45.01, which now indicates good buying opportunities. An established break through this support will neutralize the positive signal. The stock has support at pence 40.00 and resistance at pence 92.00. The poor liquidity of the stock (traded 100% of the days, mean 2.85 mill per day) may weaken the analysis. The stock is overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term.

[gac141] 07/7/2017 11:39

I wonder what Senor Trump will say about Climate change this weekend. Could make a comment that would offer us some serious upside from where we are.

I feel the overhang is waning and maybe we'll see a decent rise. Rose tint glasses and all that.

I have not forgotten about RIN's and the RFS although most of the info is readily available to all that have 20 mins to spend. I don't think the company has really taken advantage of the potential of $295 /b and used it in the media enough. That might change soon.

[fluky] 05/7/2017 14:19

A few comments: Fulcrum is not active currently. Their website states that their Sierra BioFuels Plant is set to begin commercial operations early 2019. Just interesting to note that they are using Velocys' partner TRI's technology to convert municipal waste into syngas.

The sustainable aviation fuels supplied to United from AltAir Fuels are made from non-edible natural oils such as beef tallow and pig fat. The process technology is rather simple and contains only a few unit operations - see e.g. UOP's Renewable Jet Fuel Process.

[visionon] 05/7/2017 12:14

hxxp://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2017/07/04/sustainable-aviation-fuels-the-digests-2017-multi-slide-guide-to-united-airlines/

This merits a read and illustrates how long the path to sustainable biofuels has been.

[fluky] 04/7/2017 17:28

SH: Item #7 of the Notes to the financial statements of the 2016 Final Results gives some indication. Two percentages of participation in the ENVIA JV are given: 28% share of the voting rights and 9.7 or 9.8% (both are mentioned) in the economical interest of the JV. I assume that the net profit which will flow Velocys will be based on the latter number.
At the other hand it is indeed good news that the ENVIA plant was able to produce saleable products, it will take at 5,000 hours of continues operation at nominal capacity to convince potential investors. A critical input is obviously the investment needed for such a plant. I estimate, based on the equity investment of $5M and the 9.7-9.8% mentioned above that the ENVIA plant costs around $50M for a 350 bpd plant or about $150,000 per daily barrel. This means that the revenue from the waxes and the RINs must be pretty high to offset this high investment. I look forward to gac141's post on RFS and RINs.