Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 06/9/2017 18:29

5 year RSI at 22.

[justiceforthemany] 06/9/2017 18:28

Now trading at 5 year lows.

Excluding the intangible assets write down of £53.3M and other exceptionals totalling £3.1M the company made a profit of £15M in the 6 months

With a greater number of royalties due in H2 of approx £10M full year operating profit should therefore be well in advance of £30M and possibly closer to £40M

That gives adjusted EPS of ~5.8p and a projected P/E around 16 which is not bad for a 'growth' share with the lucrative Advair generic likely to follow.

Baffled why management did not introduce even a small dividend given the cash balance of £90.5M - it may have provided some support to the share price

After the slump today this is now trading below/at book value with a P:B ratio of 0.99.

[carpadium] 06/9/2017 17:22

Worth noting the FTSE 250 automatic exit point is £615m mkt cap.

[davr0s] 06/9/2017 17:12

Crikey I bought this in the 90s several years ago and they have double and halved since. At some point they might be a buy but management royally messed up here so standing well clear

[boadicea] 06/9/2017 16:12

jimbjoyce - You can forget buyers and sellers for AT trades - they're both. If it was placed as a bid on the 'book' it will appear as a sell when the buyer (=bidder) finds a seller. On the other side of the book an offeror will sell to a buyer. You can only get a better impression by looking at the depth on each side of the book for which you need level 2. Participants can be anyone with a dma facility, so one cannot tell whether one or other (or both/neither) side is a market maker.
For 'O' trades, there is normally a market maker involved and these trades might mean more except that the attribution based on mid-price is not reliable.

Basically, someone is offering shares cheaper (possibly shorting) and they are being BOUGHT, so the price falls.

[jimboyce] 06/9/2017 15:34

Buys outstrip sells by a factor of 4, yet the price continues to slide. Is they a large seller?

[dontay] 06/9/2017 14:55

The historical timescale for the FDA to announce a verdict in a re-submission issue is 10 months from actual submission date.It's likely therefore that VEC's statement means they are expecting to hear that the date for the verdict/consideration of the new submission will be announced by the FDA before the end of this year... and on normal timescales this would mean the FED will announce their new verdict sometime in late spring 2018. Providing the FDA give their approval on their next go round... and no-one is going to have a clue what that verdict will be until it happens... then the generic market launch would reasonably be expected to take place a couple of months later... so all being well, the generic should be on the market by the autumn of next year. The court date for the litigation issue has been booked in and set for December 2018.

[boadicea] 06/9/2017 14:10

The market is taking its typical view of a large bottom line loss.
In fact I see no serious new negatives in the report and the existing ones were well factored in already. The loss is accounted for by non-cash write-down and amortisation of goodwill and intangibles. The net cash position is only £1.5 million down, a drop of under 2% in their cash reserve and that is after a net spend of £28.7m on R&D.

The lumpy mile-post income was down this year compared to last and the revenue line is now substantially tilted towards predictably recurring items, i.e. steadily rolling sales and royalties.

It will be interesting to see what the carefully considered verdict becomes in a week or two's time. If either of the two main negatives are resolved the upside is considerable but I suspect that is unlikely before mid 2018 (for the Hikma/VR315 CRL issue) and 2019 for any outcome on the GSK litigation front. I pity the jury due to be involved just before or over Christmas 2018! On the other hand, the long delay allows plenty of time for prior out-of-court settlement.

My inclination is to see this as an opportunity to accumulate a fundamentally undevalued stock but with the main pay-back probably not occuring until well into 2018.

Just my view - NAI/DYOR.

[alexchry] 06/9/2017 14:05

Popper Joe - According to a poster on Hikma board, it was Barclays.

[popper joe] 06/9/2017 13:52

Alex, I was with you until your last sentence. Where have you seen it reported and who has made the estimate that Hikma "will be able to launch by the end of 2018"? I realise that knowing the regulatory timetable is a far cry from being in a position to launch, but my understanding is that neither Hikma nor Vectura have made public what the issues are/were that resulted in the CRL. Therefore we don't know what hurdles still need to be jumped.

[alexchry] 06/9/2017 13:16

Roger-it is the regulatory timetable that should be known by the end of this year. It has been estimated that Hikma will be able to launch Advair generic by the end of 2018.

[ropey] 06/9/2017 13:05

This from their summary :
In July 2016, Vectura announced that it had initiated legal proceedings against GSK in the US following GSK's decision not to extend the term of its legacy agreement with Vectura beyond 31 July 2016, by licensing additional patent families. The court has scheduled a jury trial commencing on 17 December 2018.

On 10 May 2017, our partner, Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC ("Hikma") received a CRL from the US FDA in relation to its abbreviated new drug application
for its generic version of GSK's Advair Diskus(R).The FDA has categorised the CRL as 'Major'. Failure to resolve these issues at all or in a timely manner
will result in a loss of potential future revenues for the Group as well as additional funds for investment.

Both Vectura and Hikma are confident the issues raised in the CRL will be addressed and the product approved as an AB rated substitutable product. We
expect to be able to confirm the regulatory timetable before the end of the year.

Two questions / clarifications :
1) The litigation was made by VEC not GSK so should this be a worry for VEC or would it be a bonus if it is successful ?
2) The FDA approval timetable will be clear before end of 2017 so it could be anytime between now & 31/12 and it could also be positive since it has not been ruled out and work is underway to resolve the 'issues' highlighted by FDA.

[rogerrail] 06/9/2017 12:39

alex

what does "Vectura expects to be able to confirm the regulatory timetable before the end of 2017" mean if not the timetable for the product introduction ? This will provide the clarity which should boost the share price

Did anyone listen into the conference call and can further enlighten us?

[0815exitstrategy] 06/9/2017 12:26

and double unfortunately no one seems to see the good news anymore, e.g. the new generic tiotropium development program (tiotropium made 3.5 billion euro in 2015)

[pooroldboy55] 06/9/2017 12:23

alex how do you know that inside info ? as you seem so sure

[alexchry] 06/9/2017 11:50

Roger-no chance of regulatory clearance for many, many months, probably late next year, unfortunately.

[andysaw] 06/9/2017 11:40

I reckon the share price will keep going down in next few days due to no news

[rogerrail] 06/9/2017 11:23

The initial market reaction is no doubt based more on the headline numbers and less on the fundamentals, clearly we were not going to get any significant news on Advair and this is already more than priced in. If anything there should be increased assurance that we will see regulatory clearance within a matter of 2 - 3 months at worst and this will see the share price rocket to perhaps £1.50+. Could well prove to be a good buying opportunity if you are prepared to wait a few months for a decent payback

[pooroldboy55] 06/9/2017 11:13

Inaccuracy many times my buy/sells show up wrong way round.

[0815exitstrategy] 06/9/2017 11:06

I find it strange that there are so many buys today. Did the market used the "not so stellar news today" to push the share price down so that it is now a good time to go back in again? or is it simply inaccuracy of this marking system what is a buy and what is a sell?

[citytrader66] 06/9/2017 10:46

try not to look in the mirror then! 😋

[semper vigilans] 06/9/2017 10:26

Sad to see.

[pooroldboy55] 06/9/2017 09:28

Just wonder if the directors will comment on share price having gone under a pound half about what it was 12 months ago.

[0815exitstrategy] 06/9/2017 09:09

I totally agree cumnor. I just wanted to clarify expectations.

[cumnor] 06/9/2017 09:04

2018 is finee, 081 and would be very positive for earnings (despite more generic competition).