Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[utrecht_00] 01/2/2013 12:10

yep, don't think they have all that deep pockets. May have been more of a cashflow decision than a view on the producing field itself?

Topped up at 371p, time will tell whether that was a smart move or not.

[utrecht_00] 01/2/2013 12:06

CT, many thanks for that. Well depending in what the flow from the fionn field is will determine whether its worth VPP picking up the tab.

BTW Handcross is expected to be drilled q1 2103, I wonder where they are with that?

[utrecht_00] 01/2/2013 10:50

well 15 million wiped off the sp, not sure the fion costs will be that much and good to hear albeit not from VPP that causeway should be upping the output in the second quarter. This thing just gets better value even as their communication gets worse.

BTW anyone know what the expected costs of fion were?

[utrecht_00] 01/2/2013 10:22

yep I am sending one too. This is what I have always said, why they cannot RNS things. Shows contempt for shareholders.

That said the drop today is overdone so its topup time for me.

[ed 123] 01/2/2013 08:31

Silence is Valiant's way. :-#

I've emailed the company this morning, asking for an rns on Fionn and the strategic review (update, if not finished).

Anyone else want an update? Contact ningrassia at valiant-petroleum dot com.

Weight of emails might have an effect?

[philo124] 01/2/2013 08:20

Why no RNS? I don't understand.

[philo124] 01/2/2013 08:16

I am pretty annoyed.

[flyingbull] 31/1/2013 11:32

Here are the February " >20% Up" and ">20% Down" oil stock competitions. Deadline for entry is later today (Thursday) at midnight.
Best of luck.
fb

[hpcg] 31/1/2013 11:18

I'm not sure he should.
Of course everything I write is entirely speculative; I have zero insight into the process. Valiant has made the difficult step which is to become a viable E&P company, it just seems stupid to throw it away. AIM oilers have a well deserved bad rep for not returning anything to shareholders and this causes conservative ratings. Demonstrate the opposite and have a plan for growth and the rating will improve. Sitting around whining that the market doesn't rate the company, which is what prompted the SR, is not the answer.

[utrecht_00] 31/1/2013 09:21

so that leaves the question if the MBO doesn't fly will PB return to VPP at all?

[hpcg] 30/1/2013 12:42

I'm expecting them to have given up at the 6 month point, so in about a week. The review is in my opinion artificially capping the share price I've only bought in the last 2 weeks on this premise, though I'm not tying myself to any end date. If a sale at a decent price were possible it would have been done a long time ago. Likewise a merger. Farm-ins aren't the result of a strategic review, no matter what the September announcement may have said - that is business as usual.

I think the share price will rise once the SR is complete almost irrespective of the conclusion. It could drop a bit in the short term, but I think that has mostly happened already.

I don't think the MBO will fly, not just yet, though credit markets in the junior oil patch are encouraging given recent announcements.

So IMO in particular order:
1. Move to main market (good for SP).
2. Extend the borrowing facility and institute a buy back program (good for SP, wouldn't even have to buy many shares)
3. Continue to secure portions of new assets especially with regard to discovered but undeveloped fields held by juniors requiring funding. There should always be a list, but at the least the SR should have ranked opportunities.

If the credit market is freeing up then opportunities will become more expensive.

[utrecht_00] 30/1/2013 10:31

ok- when do we think we will hear news on the strategic review/any offers?

[pyemckay] 29/1/2013 19:02

back to valiant guys...

[hpcg] 29/1/2013 18:29

OT. Judging by the variety of prices paid for acreage in the different basins no in the industry knows how to value European shale. But then Exxon made there worst deal ever buying XTO (not all shale) and Chesapeake also came a cropper. It could be US sourced LNG which kills european shale as much as anything.

[pyemckay] 29/1/2013 16:31

another top up at 403.5p. It shouldnt be long now until we get some information.

[ohisay] 29/1/2013 16:24

I remain to be convinced that the market - or shall we say your average PI - can value European shale gas properly.
Too many imponderables for me - geology/cost/lterm local selling prices.
Just my take on it - AUL's take out price spoke volumes for their nominal EV to me and by inference SLE's shale gas prospects - though I'm simplifying of course..

[hpcg] 29/1/2013 15:50

ditto - though my own fault for not selling more at a higher price in both cases. I still think polish shale has a future but I'd rather they spent the aul cash on the conventional opportunities.

[utrecht_00] 29/1/2013 15:17

Ct- i held/ hold aul/sle. Please dont remind me. At least vpp is discovered and producing. I had a mare with aul.

[utrecht_00] 29/1/2013 10:42

in an age of dilution etc its amazing to see that VPP has only just over 40 million shares in circulation. Some aim oilers have a billion!

GLG will want their pound of flesh.

I would still expect an offer in the mid 500's. Would still be a p/e less than 2.5 and only represent a 22% premium to the share price when the strategic review was announced and when the CEO said the company was undervalued.

[bomfin] 29/1/2013 10:12

btw If Valiant are taken private at too cheap a price shareholders should sue the company. The directors would be guilty of not acting in the best interest of shareholders. imho dyor