Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[flyingbull] 29/12/2012 18:42

Fancy a challenge and put your skills to the test!? Here are the
oil stock competitions that sort out the boys/girls from the men/women! ;-) :-)

Best regards and Happy & Exciting New Year.....

fb

[utrecht_00] 29/12/2012 18:27

I assume it will continue to drift downwards. I would think that its also probably helping PB to make a case for a low ball buyout.

[bulltradept] 29/12/2012 17:03

"The price held up well for nearly the whole session. It only fell in the last nine minutes before closing, during which period a dozen buy side orders were hit.

What are we to think?

Either at 4:20pm someone got wind of bad news to be released on Monday morning and decided to dump 17,000 shares quickly, or someone saw a chance just before close on a very quiet Friday to push the share price down.

Don't you just love the Wild West of AIM oilers?"

_____________________________________________

No substantial increase in volume yet,so it's a difficult one to call, although VPP is approaching another Fib level so who knows..

[ed 123] 29/12/2012 00:42

The price held up well for nearly the whole session. It only fell in the last nine minutes before closing, during which period a dozen buy side orders were hit.

What are we to think?

Either at 4:20pm someone got wind of bad news to be released on Monday morning and decided to dump 17,000 shares quickly, or someone saw a chance just before close on a very quiet Friday to push the share price down.

Don't you just love the Wild West of AIM oilers?

[utrecht_00] 28/12/2012 19:55

and under 4 pounds. What a shambles, worth buying more though I would think. Hardly matters what happens now. Whats it going to do go under 3 pounds if they can't sell it and soldier on?

[pyemckay] 20/12/2012 19:26

will be buying 2moro if sub 400.

[utrecht_00] 20/12/2012 18:41

167 million market cap, debt must be 0 now and producing 11,500 bopd.. cheapest oil company around?

[ed 123] 20/12/2012 18:21

Yes, not looking good.

Valiant should be issuing an operational update between now and early January, if normal practice is followed.

Obviously, a Causeway update would be helpful. Also might be a date for Handcross drilling. As we know, Valiant has booked the Stena Carron for Q1 2013. Interesting that Stena's website has that drillship booked by Chevron till Q4 2013. Slippage would be welcome in my view, since it takes the pressure off finding a partner and finishing the strategic review.

The shares traded at about 440p immediately before the announcement of the strategic review. Today saw a new closing low since that day - 408p.

Operational update needed.

[utrecht_00] 20/12/2012 17:31

price going under 4 pounds it would seem, albeit on low volume but still.

[utrecht_00] 19/12/2012 20:02

I know that but the gambles with vpp haven't paid off, but they produce a ton of oil a day, rather than accept a 500p bid or so, just run it into the ground and return the cash as and when. Simples.

[bbluesky] 19/12/2012 19:46

utrecht - oil has always been about the gamble. If you want no risk there are alternatives to equities. RIP Larry Hagman.

[utrecht_00] 19/12/2012 19:39

yep, just deplete, and return the cash. No risk and we'd get many multiples of the current share price back.

[ohisay] 19/12/2012 19:36

Really - so no possible replacement at all of depleted assets?
Do you not realise they can get 78% of any failed exploration costs in Norway directly refunded in cash from the Norwegian Govmt.
The Norwegian focus was an excellent move after Osborne's tax move hit small oil co's in the North sea 2 years ago.Buchanan was very quick off the mark there.Seems Tullow quite likes the area too but hey what do they know.

Its the smaller North sea explo stuff they should reexamine.But they already know that IMV.

[utrecht_00] 19/12/2012 12:28

ohisay, the market disagrees. Handcross will cost a lot to drill. Safer and more money if they abandon exploration.

[ed 123] 19/12/2012 10:25

Unfortunately, all 6 or 8 exploration wells could come up dry. Then the money will have been totally lost.

Alternatively Valiant could buy discovered assets or whole companies - less risk for shareholders.

For instance, Valiant might be interested in Antrim Energy ($150M ?). Antrim has good prospects but lacks the cash to see them all through - and its share price has been pummeled, making an equity raising unattractive. A Valiant/Antrim combination could get my vote. A Valiant development of Fyne would reduce the risk of holding Valiant shares, since it would give substantial (for Valiant) fresh cash flows from 2015 onwards. I think the market would like that. Then there would be large prospects in Ireland and Zanzibar to have a go at.

If Valiant is to be swallowed by a larger oil company, then I'd be happy with Enquest paper/cash.

Or, it may yet go to private equity or PB for cash.

[ohisay] 19/12/2012 10:02

Well I'd much rather they spent 40m$ on Handcross which could be transformational (as a Foinaven # analogue) than smaller amounts on seemingly less attractive prospects using a kind of scattergun approach .After waiting so long for them to get a drilling slot why would you not want to see the results.?
So if there's a successful bid I'd still want to be in the acquirer company for Handcross.

Just a reminder of what they're proposing next year.



"Offshore Norway next year, Valiant will also be involved in wells on three prospects, Norvarg, Matrosen, and the frontier Storbarden prospect.

Overall, Valiant's drilling programme could see between six and eight exploration wells in 2013/14: Beverley, Doris, Handcross, Isabella, Matrosen, Norvarg, Timon, Storbarden, and there are further wells possible at Causeway and Fionn."

I still don't think this company has done much wrong over the years other than the 25m$ disaster with Tybalt.And if this general market weakness continues I'll be having a small top up too.

#

[utrecht_00] 18/12/2012 20:18

yep sod the portfolio of licenses. In the bin and sell handcross as well. Pump oil and return the cash.Nothing else. Now there's a novel idea.

[ed 123] 18/12/2012 19:52

Agree that would be the best route. However, Valiant has been adding to its portfolio of licences. Licences need expenditure.

Valiant should give up that nasty exploration habit.

Exploration damages shareholders' wealth.

[utrecht_00] 18/12/2012 19:32

Jeez, it really is in the 5 quid will look good from this level stage. share price is just nonsense if they exit the year at over 11,000 bopd. I'd be in favour of cancelling all exploration, no expenditure and just build up the cash reserves and return to shareholders in dividends. We'd get 250p a year at least.

[ed 123] 18/12/2012 15:18

Seller taking it down a bit more. New low, post 'open to offers'?

Nurse! Crack open my piggy bank. I need a top-up.

[rogash] 12/12/2012 15:29

Chart Trader, thanks for that, but the figs.are definately published as pence.

[rogash] 12/12/2012 10:28

I am missing something here.Can somebody tell me why analyst estimates for 2013 is 182p i.e pe just over 2.3?

[ed 123] 12/12/2012 07:46

Thanks, sludgesurfer. :) I've corrected my post.

[sludgesurfer] 11/12/2012 23:21

Ed,

Broadly agree with your prognosis. However, one point of clarification - the Endeavour offer for Ithaca was $3.25 not 325p.