Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 29/1/2013 00:08

Just getting a main market listing would cause a re-rating. Aim is OK as a low cost starting ground but once the cash is coming in there is no excuse for staying listed there.

[ed 123] 28/1/2013 23:28

Hi utrecht_00.

Yes, it will be throwing off cash, especially at today's Brent crude price of $113/bbl. Valiant has some hedging, though.

Although I have no inside knowledge, I feel certain that Valiant will have received indicative bids. With such a low p/e ratio, there's a lot of room for a bid premium and good profit for the buyer.

One morning, I'll switch on the computer and find the rns isn't another clause 8.3/8.5. (At 405p, though, the market isn't saying there's a bid at a big premium on its way - but the market can be wrong.)

If Valiant opt for bulking up, I'd be happy for them to absorb Antrim Energy.

Otherwise, sell off the exploration side, produce the Dons/Causeway and return capital to shareholders.

[utrecht_00] 28/1/2013 18:32

this thing must be throwing off cash especially if production is anywhere near the 11500 bopd they claimed.

Its probably on a p/e of less than 2, politically stable, will have no debts now.

Must be one of if not the best value stocks on the LSE.

And yet, no sign of a bidder and no sign of strategic review and the share price is in the toilet.

Its all very odd, but I am thinking of buying some more. Even if a low ball offer fails and they drill handcross its still on balance worth it.

[ed 123] 28/1/2013 16:43

Someone with deep pockets stopped it closing below 405p. Seller didn't want to offload big volume at 405p.

Another four groundhog days, then a weekend break?

Yawn ....

[ed 123] 25/1/2013 10:33

Yes, 480p would seem too low to succeed. I should have had a bar of chocolate for my breakfast!

But, why is the share price hovering around 405p? There's been plenty of time for the market to adjust. 405p sees the buying and selling balanced, so (chocolate or no chocolate) I am a bit wary.

Without checking, I think my average will be higher than yours, maybe 440p?

I would phone Valiant to ask for an update, but they couldn't tell me anything. Besides, I expect the phone line would be busy with Uncle Tom onto them, extolling the virtues of his wallpaper. "Do I not want that!"

[ohisay] 25/1/2013 10:09

480p - You must be losing the will to live Ed.!
Easy to get slightly disheartened isnt it when things don't move.?
To be honest having had another good year I'm kind of hoping its a paper deal - if there's a deal at all- I really don't want gorgeous George taking a big slug of CGT off me to offset his Starbucks shortfall.
(My av buy price now is 430p - whats yours?)

[ed 123] 25/1/2013 09:48

Yes, fully agree, Valiant would suit Cairn very well. Not just the production, but also the Norway and Barents (Iceland?) exploration licences would be good for Cairn (with its 'oodles of cash')

Hands up, I was one who incorrectly guessed the Nautical takeover. I'd built Nautical up to be my biggest holding, expecing Statoil to come along with more than 550p. How wrong I was! Disappointed with 450p, but I took it and moved on.

I could be disappointed here with an eventual 480p, take it and move on. Want a result now, either way.

[ohisay] 25/1/2013 09:39

Hows about a deal with Cairn one of its Timon partners.Quite a nice fit.

Oodles of cash available.





Could be mix of cash and paper though more likely cash.

Nobody saw the NPE acquisition coming after all.

[ed 123] 25/1/2013 09:25

Thanks for info, CT.

ohisay, agree, calculation suggests it should be worth 40 or 50p per share if they find 30mmbo recoverable. However, an undeveloped and unappraised 3 mmbo is not very material; by far the greatest value in Valiant is its current production. I'm thinking the market might add 10p to 15p, if Timon is a success.

utrecht_00, with today's rns, the board had the chance to add a couple of extra paragraphs to update us on production and other matters. As we know, they didn't do that. I doubt there is another update coming. We'll have to look to Enquest, Antrim, etc. for keeping us informed.

This well doesn't need to delay the outcome of the review. A clause can added to a draft agreement, covering either success or failure at Timon. Alternatively, just subtract the cost of well and add the success value, factored by the chance of success. Not really material, imv, anyway.

After an initial small amount of buying interest on the Timon news, the market is back to its 405p viewpoint. Will this be another $x million of money wasted? Anyway, they had a commitment to drill, so unavoidable. As ever with wells, it's a wait and see.

I remain unsure about the outcome of the strategic review. Will enough of the big shareholders want to accept the best of the 'low' bids (I'm guessing has been made)?

The process is dragging on, which makes me think there isn't unanimity amongst the big shareholders.

I've been picking up shares. If it's a bad review outcome, then the share price will fall. However, the value in the production remains and, if they don't throw away lots of cash on failed exploration, I still expect to be able to sell further out with some profit.

[utrecht_00] 25/1/2013 09:05

and the price is.....down. 40 days to result which could pile a bit more on the share price if good. Wonder whether a bid will come in before that?

[utrecht_00] 24/1/2013 14:57

expecting an ops update soon in the absence of the strategic review results. Last year we had on Jan 10th.

[utrecht_00] 20/1/2013 23:15

rhu- they have the revenue and the bank lending to do it. Maybe that will be the outcome of the strategic review, to buy a few small companies or one their own size.

[rhubarbe] 20/1/2013 22:35

And the share price didn't plummet? So, why not do it again?

[pyemckay] 20/1/2013 22:30

they did, they bought a percentage of causeway from antrim last year.

[rhubarbe] 20/1/2013 22:14

Can anybody tell me why they just don't buy extra production - we know where there is some going - rather than waste money drilling? It'd be good for the share price too.

[utrecht_00] 20/1/2013 13:06

right now where's that operational update we usually get this time of year? I am keen to see what our 2012 exit rate was and how close to 11500 barrels a day it is. I am also assuming the debt is paid off and there is a little in the bank as well.

[ed 123] 19/1/2013 15:19

Thanks, ohisay.

It would be risky short atm.

100,000 shares were bid for at 403p in Friday's closing auction. None were supplied. On the other hand, the seller was active during the trading session.

The stand-off continues.

If I work on the assumption that insiders are active in the market, then the outcome of the strategic review was undecided on Friday.

[ohisay] 19/1/2013 11:42

Not much short interest it seems.



[scroll down right hand side and put in the epic.]

[hpcg] 18/1/2013 16:34

Managed to pick up some more at a gnats nut over 400 today, thanks to mr or mrs seller. There are people starting to talk up oil, which can go either way for juniors if there is a high spike, but good strength over 100 and producers like Valiant are sitting pretty.
The other thing which the company really should do is move to the main market. There is no excuse for a strongly revenue generating company without a main listing overseas to remain on AIM. This co is much larger than most small caps. It might cost some VC trust holdings but it would put the company on the list of some institutions which simply aren't allowed to own AIM shares. Then there is the ISA advantage for PIs which in its own small way opens up the company to more investors. Yes there is a higher cost but that is trivial in comparison with gains for shareholders.

[ohisay] 18/1/2013 15:14

HPCG thats a nice post.
I can't say I'm too concerned by the lack of news though as I do think any potential interest would want to see Causeway 90% sorted before anything firm went on the table.