Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 18/1/2013 10:58

ohisay, I like your style, though my objectives here are much more conservative than yours! In my own way I've been building a position with small hidden limit orders in the low 400's to take advantage of the end of day drop. It wouldn't be possible to do that with any large amount though. I'm not going to invest much as I have a good chunk of my port in AEY and there is too much overlap at the moment.

The downside, ignoring tail risk events, is very small, no greater than 10%, whilst a deal premium would be 25-30% from here. At that price it is still a steal.

I'm not sure a deal is likely otherwise it would have happened. I don't think we have the quantity or spread of production to enhance many mid tier players, and I'm not sure that FPM has either the money (even if paper) or the desire to grow through acquisitions yet. It makes more sense IMO to farm down a bit of GCA and farm into one or more other producing fields. That of course relies on other amenable parties.

The price is more than underpinned oil in the ground, not to mention the stuff we are extracting, so a deal is by no means important to the share price at this level. Then there are a couple of short term catalysts in Fionn and Handcross. But I don't have anything to add which you don't all know already. Just pointing out that there non or new holders who recognise the value here.

[utrecht_00] 17/1/2013 22:16

What price do you think a deal could be done at?

[ohisay] 17/1/2013 21:35

I'm not bothered - whatever they do will be progress in my book.
It will be the best deal they can get.
They are an honest straighforward bunch IMV.

[utrecht_00] 17/1/2013 21:29

Agree its cheap as chips. Whats your timescale for a deal?

[ohisay] 17/1/2013 21:23

i've added 30% to my holding recently at 403p to 409p.
You could buy this just as a play on Handcross.Nothing gets the marker excited like a big prospect after all .
Unrisked that's a 5 bagger.
ie Say 160m BOE at 8$/boe.
800m£.Risk it at a paltry 5% -its worth £40m or 1/4 current market cap.
Look at it another way by looking at current output cf market cap -the same way the cannucks would - then compare it with Enquest market cap /output.
Cheap as chips any way you slice it.
Remember Macquarrie thought a paper deal/merger likely with either Cairn Enquest or FPM.
Would suit me for CGT .And I could follow the prospects esp in Norway.
I'm so relaxed I'm laid out.

[utrecht_00] 17/1/2013 19:02

Ed keepbit up its all good. Wonder how much longer before we hear about the results of the strategic review and any offers?

[ed 123] 17/1/2013 16:53

Definitely a more positive session today and good volume (382,000 shares). As expected, the seller was allowed to take it down in the end of day auction (1,559 shares at 411p).

I think we'll see more strength tomorrow (420/430p high and 415p in closing auction? - my guesses). Then, what's the chance of a result on Monday?

Move over, Mystic Meg. I'm after your job!

(Apols for the speculative chatter, if it's not to everyone's liking.)

[ed 123] 16/1/2013 16:58

Yes, a bit of a nuisance.

Might delay the result of the strategic review?

The seller's bluff was called today. 100,000 shares bid at 405p, but the seller only provided 1,772.

Some sort of a stand-off seems to have developed.

I'm getting impatient for that result.

[ed 123] 12/1/2013 13:09

I'm in full agreement with that, bbluesky. :-/

[bbluesky] 12/1/2013 10:19

Sadly, it is hard not to be cynical about events and prospects. To my mind it is a form of insider dealing, but we will have to wait and see the outcome. Living in hope!

[ed 123] 11/1/2013 21:20

You there, bbluesky?

Did you watch today's closing auction for Valiant?

If you did, you'd have to agree that someone was trying to get the uncrossing price down. Did a good job of it too.

[utrecht_00] 10/1/2013 23:42

really, then why don't you come on here and give us your wisdom, or why not ignore the board if you are so bored? Its not like you have contributed anything is it?

[bbluesky] 10/1/2013 22:21

Exactly, the moves on 10k 15k etc mean sweet fa and to hear the daily diatribe on it is v dull.

[ed 123] 10/1/2013 19:05

Thanks, frazboy. Had missed that.

[frazboy] 10/1/2013 18:28

interesting after hours trade

10-Jan-13 17:07:14 413.00 320,308 Buy* 406.00 416.75 1.323M

[utrecht_00] 09/1/2013 17:46

in my paranoia I think it looks like price held back to make a low ball offer seems better. Where's my pills?

[ed 123] 09/1/2013 17:05

Yes, easy isn't it.

To be fair, (potential) buyers have been allowing it to happen. At times the seller(s) has been quite assertive, while the buyer(s) has been acquiescent.

Announcement by this time next week? I think we must be getting close.

Been practicing my poker face, in case of a bad result.

[utrecht_00] 09/1/2013 16:41

and a whopping sale of 8 shares AT of course right at the bell to take it down from 415p to 405p...

[utrecht_00] 09/1/2013 09:59

anyone tried to ask the company about current production?

As wide a spread on this as I have seen in a while 400- 417. Last buy was at 415 technically this should be up.

[sludgesurfer] 09/1/2013 09:38

After all the apathy, poor communications, dry hole and waffle from VPP, Fraz has hit the nail on the head..... The value of this company comes down to 2 things - Causeway water cut and Dons forecast. Little else matters. Forget Crawford, Enquest don't care imo. No bidder cares about exploration prospects, Iceland acreage or any other such noise. Valiant is a high revenue, low opex machine. It's that revenue both current and forecast that will make or break the deal. The market appears to think a break is more likely. All imo.

[utrecht_00] 08/1/2013 22:25

oh jeez don't say that we'll be at 350p soon....

[pyemckay] 08/1/2013 17:34

that rate was with causeway at full pelt, only currently at half the forecast flow rate. 9k rate imo approx

[frazboy] 08/1/2013 16:17

i'm still trying to make sense of VPP's latest operational update (see "Causeway First Oil")

"With new Dons field wells coming on stream in H2 2012 and the addition of Causeway, Valiant is anticipating a year-end exit rate in excess of 11,500 bopd. Due to start-up delays and production performance to date at Causeway, Valiant's production in 2012 is anticipated to average around 6,500 bopd."

they claim they expected a YE rate > 11,500 bopd

but how?

the only way I could come up with that number was if Don SW was flowing at 15,000 bopd (40% NI to Valiant) which was rougly the July production (DECC data, see below), Causeway was at 7,500 (64.5 NI to Valiant) and West Don made up the other 700 barrels. I could just about believe the Don number but Causeway, 7500? really?

Don SW: 15,347 (Jul), 10,862 (Aug), 13,777 (Sep)