Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[epifanio1] 21/2/2023 07:09

All kicking off on twitter haha.... money sponge does make a valid point though, usual suspects pushing garbage just to flip they're placing stock so they can sit on warrants risk free

[deanmatlazin] 20/2/2023 16:41

Sarawak is a game changer. I got a friend who is working for an oil company in Malaysia. They have found oil/gas on the onshore Sarawak. Cheap to drill and high probability of hitting one. They got 4 leads now and are working on it. Invest now and wait for 2 years. Forget Dunrobin. Sarawak is a better bet.

[tyler90] 20/2/2023 07:59

Increasing the % of JV from 20 to 45 sounds good too

[tyler90] 20/2/2023 07:57

Value enhancing placing with key investorsNot relying on Dunrobin Comes across as a company with a plan and not just aiming in the dark

[spangle93] 20/2/2023 07:50

Pushes us into the rarefied air of a billion share company



There were 811MM before today, so around 25% more shares in total...

Let's hope lightning strikes twice this time - it didn't with Dr S
"The Financing (including the Subscription), is conditional upon final FCA approval of the Prospectus, and will be led by a small group of individuals most of whom were early-stage investors in Cove Energy plc."

[soulsauce] 20/2/2023 07:11

Well there is the placing but it doesn't seem a bad one.

[turbotrader2] 19/2/2023 22:20

Expect a ? week here

[soulsauce] 19/2/2023 12:31

Tyler the tank must be running on fumes as it is and doubt we will be able to wait longer than a farm out decision on Dunrobin before we have to tap the market.
So unless any farm out arrangement contains a monetary installment then some way is going to have to be found to keep the lights on and soon.

[tyler90] 19/2/2023 11:06

any not Amy!

[tyler90] 19/2/2023 11:06

Sarawak is where the 'gold' lies and Amy Dunrobin success will help fund some of the activity there but no doubt they will come back to the market at some time, preferably at a higher price

[spangle93] 19/2/2023 10:59

Tyler90 - yes, ref 10426, that's close to my understanding from reading the RPS report (10418). Not de-ramping, just stating how it is.

I believe global success rates are actually around 20-25% for exploration alone, and 34% is actually on the higher side of exploration CoS pre-drill.

However, for balance, Wick in 2018 was also a Beatrice sands target, and had a higher quoted pre-drill chance of success

ref the last paragraph, TBH, I'm not actually sure what's left to fund the costs of all the ongoing activity in UPL, so there's no way that they could pony up for their portion of Dunrobin. No-one gives loans for exploration drilling.

Perhaps we should multiply CoS with CoP (chance of landing a moneyed partner) in any NAV risking exercise?

[tyler90] 19/2/2023 10:37

PS which is why a trading strategy alongside an investment strategy in a stock such as this is a good way to maximize return and mitigate losses that could incur if we get a dud drill. AIMHO

[tyler90] 19/2/2023 10:34

If I am reading and understanding it correctly then the report is saying that there is a 34% chance of success for the Dunrobin West primary target. Dunrobin West is said to be similar in geology to the Beatrice field, which produced a lot of oil.Commercial exploration success rates worldwide range from 30- 40% so 34% is not an outlier in that respect. If it was over 70%, for example, then all 3 partners share price would already be much higher. This is the nature of investing in O&G exploration-you don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.If I am also right, Upland have no intention of drilling but to farm-out to realise value from this venture to invest in the star prize which is Sarawak.

[tyler90] 18/2/2023 20:14

Not even subtle deramping lol!

[spangle93] 18/2/2023 07:41

Oh, one more... we still don't have a CEO, just a combined Chair/CEO role. Not sure I can name another company with that much decision authority with one person.

[spangle93] 17/2/2023 18:10

OK, I'll stop posting now. ;-)

[spangle93] 17/2/2023 18:07

Thank to Billy Joel

Upland Res
Never really seemed to suit a Fez
Now it looks as those we're coming back
To our advantages in Sarawak

[spangle93] 17/2/2023 18:05

... and for those who've been in this as Wick and Tunisia have come and gone, we have the third rinse and repeat cycle

The Company notes within Block SK334 a number of areas of specific interest with analogous geological configuration and reservoir/trap/seal combinations as Brunei's nearby Belait formation which is host to a number of proven oil and gas discoveries and oilfields. All parts of the Belait structure connect with potential oil kitchens on both flanks in the Badas and Belait synclines; Upland's SK344 block being immediately adjacent to the Belait syncline is determined to have extremely attractive prospectivity.


Oh, how we've heard those words "attractive prospectivity" before. Like a lottery ticket before the draw is made.

[spangle93] 17/2/2023 18:03

On the plus side, if you're a fan of Ricky Gervais' style of humour through squirmy embarrassment, don't fill your diary, because

The Company also expect to advise of a planned investor webinar focusing upon Sarawak shortly.

[spangle93] 17/2/2023 18:01

Blimey, the RNS's keep coming. Today's is titled
"Sarawak January JTS update"



However, hidden near the bottom, it notes

"The Company has received confirmation that an application by its subsidiary to extend the Saouaf Permit until 23 December 2023 was not approved. This was not unexpected"

So, over almost 5 years, all that interpretation work, all the posts, the imfamous webinar, the JV and then the no-JV, the directors and consultants that have come and gone, and ultimately, du hast nichts (as Rammstein may have put it)

I wonder if we got any of our $1MM bond guarantee back....

[spangle93] 16/2/2023 23:19

Having had a little time to look through the RPS report, I can't really track why the in place volumes are so skewed from the most likely to the mean. Normally it would imply that the input range to the modelling are either asymmetric in profile, or much larger above the P50 than below it. The only factor I can see on Dunrobin West, which appears to be the favoured candidate, is oil-water contact depth. Consequently, it must be the estimation of gross rock volume that's driving it, as the sands thicken with depth.

While a full static (geologic) model of in situ was built, there's much more uncertainty about the flow properties - API gravity from 20 in the low case to 37 in the high case, reservoir pressure from 570-825 psi for instance - so the estimated recovery factor for Dunrobin ends up being a range 15-30%

The STOIIP is then combined stochastically with the Rf to get the prospective resources - it works out at about 22% of calculated in place volumes.

The well data set is quite good to the north of the prospects, but very limited east, and negligible south and west. 3D seismic is available only over half of Dunrobin west, the remainder of which has to be extrapolated using 2D lines.

This is a shame, because reservoir seal integrity post-charge is the single highest factor in the risking of components. There's certainly a working play in the area - witness Beatrice, of which Dunrobin is an analogue - and hydrocarbons were found in exploration wells close to Golspie, at the licence border. So RPS believes that there is reservoir there, and that it was charged. However, the lack of clear data combined with the highly faulted and tectonically shifted area puts seal at risk.

The key paragraph is

The key risks identified for the P2478 prospects are related to Trap and Seal. Given the shallow nature of the prospects (particularly the Dunrobin structures) there is a high risk that the top seal has been breached through a lack of mechanical strength, throughgoing faulting or fault juxtaposition against thief zones in the hanging wall. We view the top seal risk to be slightly higher in the Golspie Prospect since the overlying Heather and Kimmeridge formations are both sand prone in the nearby 12/27-1 well.

These risks are compounded by an uncertainty on the early deformation and charge history of the prospects, since it is possible that any early oil charge (an associated pressures) may have compromised top seal following trap uplift during the Tertiary.

[spangle93] 16/2/2023 08:05

It's as if you knew, Henry McIvor ;-)


Unusually, the full CPR is published to retail investors

[henrymcivor1] 16/2/2023 03:03

Dunrobin CPR will be announced in the morning. 64m barrels pmean to UPL.

[daar] 14/2/2023 14:00

What did I say? Looks like 0.40s coming soon :)

[daar] 06/2/2023 11:41

I sense a great move to 0.50s before next leg up