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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
United Oil&Gas LSE:UOG London Ordinary Share GB00BYX0MB92 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.05p -1.05% 4.70p 4.60p 4.80p 4.75p 4.70p 4.75p 1,203,064 12:58:52
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 - 16.24

United Oil&Gas Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1376 to 1398 of 1400 messages
Chat Pages: 56  55  54  53  52  51  50  49  48  47  46  45  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
18/1/2019
21:20
https://twitter.com/Lee_Trades/status/1086225548551041026?s=19
the manini
18/1/2019
13:26
Ronconomics I have no doubt that oil prospectors use experience and intuition but remember that in calculating a g.c.o.s there is a list of four key risks. Each one of those risks is a single point of failure. Dr M Butler of Baron Oil had an involvement in the prospect many years ago, I do not know if that was before or after the discovery well.
gunsofmarscapone
18/1/2019
11:47
Morning Spangle Put some feelers out for info but it’s really not necessary for puntvestment tactics on well ops. A strategy is required even if sometimes missing out on huge profits the priority is risk-to-capital. Its very difficult to recover from losses if ‘investingR17; in oil wells. Gamblers fallacy etc, I use Huygens theorem which in very simple terms instructs distribution of positions and requires sufficient wealth. If you start this game on the backfoot financially you are much less likely to succeed. Thats why Maninis approach is so risky but to be fair to him if an investor can pick the right companies and invest people like Manini can wipe the floor with other investors. I’m not sharp enough or sufficiently well researched to develop enough willpower to buy and hold. Had to work out my own approach. Here’s a para from an Optiva note last Jan, should be searchable. Also I posted a link to English Channel prospectivity earlier, right down your street! However, further seismic reprocessing is underway and we expect that the results of this, expected to be available at the end of January 2018, will increase United's understanding and confidence in the prospect and mitigate a degree of the associated risk. At present, the well has been ascribed a 58% chance of success (CoS) which we have applied to our internal assumptions. I apologise, think I posted 56% earlier. The discovery only flowed 8.5 barrels and 100 barrels of water. I have no idea how long this was attempted for. 48 hours max? Sound sensible? Much as I relish banter and swim against the current I’m not planning to post my tactics again. Mongolia last year was more interesting. Some politics, climate V weather, pressurised decisions re seismic, visas, logistics of kit movement and of course the wells themselves.
gunsofmarscapone
18/1/2019
11:44
My take generally speaking is a find has to be economic. The success criteria for that is multi faceted bringing into play assumptions about future costs and the oil price, risk appetite, opportunistic elsewhere etc So it's judgemental and specific to the owners of the asset or someone who wants to buy it off them.
ronconomics
18/1/2019
10:01
Hi Ron - thanks for this. I understand the mechanism of the calculation, although other sources modify those variables a little. What I don't know is, for Colter, how the specific percentages fpr your factors stack up. Clearly there's a source rock for the whole area so that factor is 100%, but what is/are the main reasons why Colter might NOT be a commercial success?
spangle93
18/1/2019
09:47
Thanks for sharing that ron, very well explained!
tektonik
18/1/2019
09:27
Here's the answer I got when I asked about this on the uog twitter group... Geological chance of success is determined by multiplying the probability of four uncertainty factors together: Source rock: the presence of a rock in the region which has reached maturity to produce oil/gas. Migration pathway: a route from the source rock towards the prospect. This depends on several factors, such as formation dip in the area and presence of sealing structures. Reservoir rock: presence of a porous rock, e.g. sandstone, capable of containing the hydrocarbons while also being able to release/flow the hydrocarbons over a production timescale when a pressure drop is applied. Trap: to ensure the hydrocarbons in the reservoir cannot escape. There are different types of trap, the main types being structural and stratigraphic, and there are many factors which can cause a trap to fail. The final chance of success is determined by multiplying the probability of all of these together, which is why COS figures are always very low, particularly for exploration wells and often for appraisal wells. For example: Source rock - 90% Migration - 90% Reservoir - 90% Trap - 75% Leads to a COS of 55% despite having high confidence in all factors. If there’s any significant doubt in any component it immediately brings the COS right down, eg changing reservoir confidence in the above example from 90 to 50% would change COS to 30%.
ronconomics
18/1/2019
09:25
Cos numbers are not the equivalent of coin toss probabilities due to the way they are calculated. 50% coin toss is equal binary chance of failure. 50% CoS is a very good prospect.
ronconomics
18/1/2019
08:36
Hello GoM - not sure if my post was mis-read? I wasn't suggesting you pore over maps, visit the BGS, and give us a technical opinion about Colter, just whether you'd come across anything when you were examining public domain stuff prior to taking a position here? My point was that in Wick, there was some information disseminated by partners as to chance of success, and to what the main concerns were, pre-drill. UPL themselves never stated CoS, and didn't elaborate on uncertainties other than the odd throwaway (e.g. "fault risk"). Likewise for Colter, I've not seen or heard anything from UOG to state what it believes are the greatest downside uncertainty, or even the 56% that you'd quoted. But I also haven't seen this in RBD, BOIL, or the morcels from Corallian. So it was just a quick request to share if you'd found anything in e.g. a BOIL CPR if there is one. Happy to see you continue to post.
spangle93
17/1/2019
23:57
Great posts Manini well said.
soulsauce
17/1/2019
23:43
I wasn't offended at all, as I said I found it funny. I invest as opposed to trade, I go in heavy and early and hold for very large percentage gains, which works for me. You're welcome to post whenever you want to gom. btw I don't believe sentiment has been hit, Colter is and should be seen as a completely independent entity imho any other opinion is irrational to my mind and I don't base investment decisions upon irrational thinking.
the manini
17/1/2019
22:22
Just thought there had been a ‘sentimentR17; effect on the SP’s of the Colter counterparty companies due Wick fail. Sorry if it offended you btw.
gunsofmarscapone
17/1/2019
22:15
Jolly good, my aim is to make another person laugh everyday. In the real world that is. I rarely buy and hold E and P shares, manage them constantly, sells, buys, some derivatives, mostly equities. Seems to work for me, every investor needs their own approach Manini. I’m trying to decide whether to post or not during Colter by the way, I’ve asked Spangle what he thinks. How about you?
gunsofmarscapone
17/1/2019
19:59
So let me get this straight you bought in a 'modest holding' two days ago and today you're already 'adjusting' your holding. You said get ready for some seriously comical posts and you've kept your word I'm already laughing!
the manini
17/1/2019
18:19
GoM - ref CoS. I've not seen any source to indicate what the primary risk is. Since oil has indeed been found and recovered from this structure, it indicates there's a source and a trap. So I believe it might be reservoir quality. Maybe it refers to commercial CoS? Anyway if in your research, you've come across what the 44% represents, could you share? TIA
spangle93
17/1/2019
17:53
Soul you are correct, gambling on these wells requires some conviction, belief even if holding in hope throughout the entire rig on station time. Some of that hope has fallen away.
gunsofmarscapone
17/1/2019
17:47
cpap 56% V 36% c.o.s Colter:Wick Of course it is different old dear, they all are. GoM has a strategy for each well and a baseline graphic algorithm for all. You are over complicating yourself into a mental trough although if you prefer factoids to simple probability maths then try this. At the time of discovery, the 98/11-3 discovery well flowed a total of 8.5 barrels of 41.9 API oil and 100 barrels of water. I understand that seismic data is difficult to interpret due faulting. There was a lot of froth about Wick, Lybster is in virtual nodding donkey territory, only three tankers of liquids a week and some compressed gas. Happy with 56%, slightly better odds than a coin flip. Thats enough info to base a strategy on. Atb GoM
gunsofmarscapone
17/1/2019
15:30
LOL GOM appreciate that you are extremely new to UOG so you will need to DYOR but as part of that please note the following.... Colter will appraise a historic discovery that lies immediately to the south of Europe's largest onshore oil field at Wytch Farm. The discovery was made in 1986 by well 98/11-3, which encountered a 10.5m oil column in the Sherwood Sandstone reservoir, the same play that has proven to be so productive at Wytch Farm where over 450mmbbls have been produced to date. The new well will be drilled updip of 98/11-3 targeting significant potential that has been identified following reprocessing of 3D seismic data. The gross unrisked mid-case oil contingent resources in the section proven up by the 98/11-3 well have been estimated at 4mmbbls, with gross unrisked mean-case prospective resources estimated at 15mmbbls in the rest of the structure. United Oil & Gas PLC CEO, Brian Larkin, said: "The drilling of Colter in Q1 2019 will kick off what promises to be another exciting year for United. As well as appraising a historic discovery at Colter, which we believe could hold in aggregate up to 19mmbbls of gross contingent and prospective resources, shareholders can look forward to further high impact activity across our portfolio of.... Plus also note POST 962....Wick is very different to Colter
cpap man
17/1/2019
15:01
But just to be on the safe side and learning from the errors of the Upl puntvestors, adjusting holdings here.
gunsofmarscapone
17/1/2019
14:54
The Wick failure seems to have caused a loss of appetite for risk. Being as coldly rational as possible Colter is virtually a coin toss. It will most probably require more appraisals. Still we have an extensive portfolio of discoveries and prospects. I found this prospectivity of the English Channel poster, good depiction of the Sherwood sandstone area. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/367292/prospectivity_english_channel_2014.pdf
gunsofmarscapone
16/1/2019
08:40
LOL ok soulsauce just noticed your edited post above!
cpap man
16/1/2019
08:38
Added significantly on the uog retrace. Sentiment won't pervade too long I'd guess.
ronconomics
16/1/2019
08:37
No like I say I am joking.
soulsauce
Chat Pages: 56  55  54  53  52  51  50  49  48  47  46  45  Older
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