Also predicting currency exchange movement is very difficult and dependent on an enormous number of factors. I don't see sterling going to parity to euro. Interest rates in the UK are higher than in Europe. The exchange rate can turn disadvantageous for the GBP if the economy won't be able to capitalize on lowered interest rates, if that is going to happen this or next year. Meantime the UK is in a very mild recession, despite the high rates and inflation. |
Btw a change is not going to happen overnight. |
Porsche I understand your disappointment. I think Unilever has a lot of untapped potential in Asia and South America and the opportunity to regain a dominant position in Europe.
Pelts has much more experience than you do in the field of giants FMCG, so I'd let him give it a shot with Unilever. |
Down over five years, taking into account inflation the loss on the capital probably 30 pc plus over that time with 20 pc returned in dividends….so an investment in this showing about 12/13pc loss over 5 years in adjusted “ returns “. What a pos. Just buying a dirt cheap tracker for S&P or Nasdaq you would have doubled your money and had a gain on the USD appreciation, just shows the utter pointlessness of buying ftse shares, brexit basket case U.K. is doomed, ftse isn’t going anywhere and sterling is heading to parity with euro and usd. Shocking. |
B&J was bought in 2000. Jope appointed CEO in 2019. But I agree, the Ben & Jerry's structure is ridiculous and Jope a poor CEO. Carver and DSC can be credited to him. I believe he headed the business group responsible at the time of their purchases. Interestingly, Schumacher is sticking with Carver... |
ChaChaCHa The new management has dropped the woke agenda. Only issue is Ben and Jerry, since the board is relatively independent from the parent company. It is not even that easy to fire the management in B&J due to the structure of the agreement make with Unilever. Jope was a disgrace on so many levels. |
Time to drop the PC nonsense. Otherwise it will follow AB InBevhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/29/bud-light-trans-boycott-world-biggest-brewer-ab-inbev/Appease a few % and anger 90% does not improve sales. |
Some reason for optimism then.
Suet |
 Fundsmith AGM: Unilever tirade softens as stock tipped for big win
Fundsmith Equity manager Terry Smith believes the tide may be turning at Unilever (ULVR) after being a longstanding vocal critic of the consumer staples giant.
Speaking at his £24.1bn open-ended fund’s annual general meeting (AGM) at London’s Central Hall Westminster, Smith said that although he still worries about Unilever, he believes its new management is ‘actually pretty decent’.
Smith’s right-hand man and head of research, Julian Robins, tipped the company as having ‘potentially the most upside’ in the portfolio this year. It currently makes up 3.1% of the fund.
Unilever (ULVR) has featured in the portfolio since the fund’s launch in 2010. However, the stock has been a serial underperformer of late. Over five years, its share price has dropped 2.3%.
Smith added that despite his previous qualms about Unilever’s management, the company has a huge scale of distribution, with nearly half the global population using its products.
Several other top fund managers have been buying into Unilever in recent months.
citywire.com |
buybacks never work. look at VOD. shows lack of management ambition and ideas. pure laziness. |
Anhar disappointing innit. Considering that last year they bought back about 3 billion pounds worth of shares, the dividend payout should have increased by 3% at least. Now a new buyback of 2 billion pounds. Was it not better to return the excess cash directly to the shareholders as a special dividend I wonder.
Massive price hikes in stores and no tangible returns for the shareholders. Where is the money going? Is Unilever being blackmailed by its suppliers?
Is Unilever personnel doing any work at all or are they too busy with company events and team building activities? |
Thanks alotto :-)
Mixed...
27th feb Morgan Stanley underweight tp 3775p
14th feb DZ Bank hold tp 4300p
13th feb Goldmans neutral tp 4505p
9th feb UBS sell tp 3430p
9th feb Jefferies underperform tp 3400p
9th feb Berenberg buy tp 4960p
8th feb ++++ Results ++++ |
Thanks Philanderer.
I found a fuller statement:
(Sharecast News) - Morgan Stanley downgraded Unilever on Tuesday to 'underweight' from 'equalweight' and cut the price target to 3,775p from 4,100p.
The bank said that while it's not significantly below consensus on earnings, it thinks Unilever's re-rating - to a small premium to Staples - is overdone, particularly given weaker cash conversion and higher emerging markets exposure, relative to peers.
Morgan Stanley noted that following a stronger performance in recent weeks, Unilever now trades at 17.6x 2024e price-to-earnings versus European Staples overall, on 17.4x.
"With correlation between organic sales growth and P/E particularly strong in this sector, the fact that Unilever's medium-term growth rate looks likely to be broadly consistent with the rest of the sector suggests that a re-rating is unlikely," it said.
"Meanwhile, given weaker cash conversion versus other HPC peers - the company has consistently high restructuring charges which it excludes from underlying EPS and operating profit - the stock currently offers only a 3.4% unlevered free cash flow yield for FY24."
MS said that while it thinks management's strategy looks sensible, it is unclear what will drive a further re-rating over the next twelve months. The bank said the valuation seems to already be pricing in successful execution.
"Management has been clear that reinvestment will take time, and the company operates in highly competitive categories," it said.
The bank said within HPC, its top pick is Haleon, which it likes for its exposure to consumer health - a category with high brand loyalty and potential value creation from general industry consolidation.
It also likes L'Oreal for its pure-play exposure to global beauty, which offers higher structural growth, and for its "juggernaut industry status, which allows it to spend more on marketing and innovation than any other industry player".
At 1340 GMT, Unilever shares were down 2.1% at 3,912.87p. |
Market report.
.
"....Imperial Brands fell amid reports the government may announce a new vaping tax at next week’s Budget, while Unilever lost ground after a rating downgrade at Morgan Stanley "
Sharecast |
Seems £40 is the absolute ceiling for now. At least until the next trading update at the end of April. |
If I was to match P&G valuation I get a share price of about £65. |
£50 is valuation based on P&G selling at PE 26. Take a while to reach that as long as volume growth Q1 & buyback starts in April hopefully £45 later in year. Shares can be undervalued for a long time many factors economy interest rates etc but ULVR seem on track with new team & great subsidiaries in India China & USA. UK only 2% of revenue. |
Is £50 your 1-year forecast? The dividend yield would drop to 3% with a valuation of £50. £50 is a realistic projection only if dividends are increased by 25%, which I doubt will happen. |
Sorry typo 2023 volume increase of course & projected to increase in 2024 as well. |
Regarding valuation, ULVR grew volumes in 2024, despite ice-cream slowdown in comparison P&G & Nestle did not I believe EPS about £2.50 so 20x not unreasonable for a quality global operation = £50 target. |
lol wad I totally agree with you |
How can the forecasts be so disparate? £34 or £49.60. It is almost as if the analysts are guessing as much as I am. |
UBS raises Unilever price target to 3,430 (3,400) pence - 'sell'
Jefferies raises Unilever price target to 3,400 (3,300) pence - 'underperform'
Berenberg cuts Unilever price target to 4,960 (5,110) pence - 'buy' |
To conclude on the dividend point that they didn't respond to my email on, the first mention of dividend per share in the 2022 Annual Report is on page 172.
"Four quarterly interim dividends were declared and paid during 2022, totalling £1.45 (2021: £1.48) per PLC ordinary share."
Talk about burying the bad news.... very very poor financial disclosure.
You like to get the dividend signal on a company. Is the dividend per share increased or held. You have to dig around in Euro and pence and discover its held, because they haven't got the decency to tell something as it is. Unfortunately, it sums them up pretty badly. Might sell.
Also, holding the dividend over this timeframe when they have been passing on inflation at a rapid pace of speed, shows what they think of shareholders. Probably doesn't help their remuneration to increase the dividend, so they do the buybacks instead irrespective of price paid. Not that impressed. |
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