Udg Healthcare Public Share Discussion Threads

[what is a login ?] 11/12/2006 16:49

Correction. I see profits were down a tad (in the investorease figures). It was turnover that was up. I also note a few director sales during the summer. That would explain the subdued share price.

[what is a login ?] 29/11/2006 09:35

I find these results positive. Profits up. Divi up. Steady she goes! The Share Price, in itself, is sometimes to be considered a mere residual.

[slasher16] 16/11/2006 12:54

Hi Guys,
Any views on upcoming results next week. SEE GOODBODYS COMMENT THIS MORNING

United Drug (Buy, Closing Price EUR3.73)
FY06 preview - looking for a positive prognosis.
Analyst: Ian Hunter
United Drug reports its FY06 results next Wednesday, 22 November. We forecast that the company will report adjusted earnings per share of 19.9c from revenue of EUR1.4bn. Having held our numbers steady through relatively strong interims, there could be potential for some upside to these numbers, particularly on the revenue line. Since United Drug's interim results (11 May), the Irish Government concluded the first phase of its pricing review. This established 20% price cuts for certain older patented drugs for which a generic equivalent was approved. These cuts will take effect in March 2007. What remains outstanding is the outcome of negotiations with: (i) the wholesalers on their margin (now theoretically at 15%); (ii) the generic drug manufacturers (price cuts on branded generics a possibility); and (iii) pharmacists (prescription fees and mark ups likely to be squeezed). These three phases could place differing pressures on the wholesalers in the Irish market, including United Drug. We look to management to give some guidance on how it considers these three phases will be concluded, the timeline to that conclusion and their impact, if any, on United Drug. Despite a solid set of H1'06 numbers and the positive impact of a number of recent acquisitions, United Drug's management has remained conservative in its guidance for the full year. We believe, therefore, that the company will have no difficulty in hitting FY06 numbers. This conservative approach, coupled with the lack of visibility on the outcome of the on-going negotiations, has seen little movement in United Drug's share price over the past year. Underlying demographics in Ireland remain strong but there are mixed signals coming from the sector. Celesio recorded an 18% increase in wholesale revenue (undoubtedly boosted by the Sanofi-Aventis contract win), whereas Uniphar has noted that these are challenging times. Hopefully United Drug's FY06 numbers will help improve visibility.

[pharm] 14/11/2006 22:22

I wonder how udg will be affected if Pfizer succeed in putting all their drugs through Unichem as an agent especially in Ireland/N Ireland.Pfizer account for a hell of a percent of turnover for all the mainline pharmaceutical wholesalers, and if Pfizer get away with this carry on they'll all be at it next.

[what is a login ?] 14/11/2006 17:47

Thanks Liarspoker. I eventually found myself here via United Carpets and United Utilities. As different as chalk and cheese. I wanted to buy into this one at 250 for simplicity of monitoring but Selftrade screwed up and were unable to confirm the trade. By the time I phoned London for explanations the UDG share price had inexplicably gone up to nearly 254! The only thread I really have time for is the ANGL thread. I have learnt many things there. The thread of the discerning investor. From time to time I see what's going on at SOLA.

[liarspoker] 14/11/2006 12:56

Slasher - I have a mixed holding. ANGL & UDG are my long termers ie 20 yrs +. I prefer the low cap low p/e shares though but they are more risky. Never the less I thought I'd try the Buffett approach with these two since they pay a scrip dividend and earnings are +-15% or over.

Welcome login. :O)

As you can see this is a quiet thread...a bit like the ASF thread. lol.

Edit: the gov't decision should affect the next interims.

[what is a login ?] 14/11/2006 12:51

The trend alas is for people to grow old. In an evermore affluent society they need more and more pharmaceuticals. I don't know what the government policy is in Ireland. Perhaps they wish to curb excess profits as they say they do in Italy. I have tucked 600 UDG away and they are going into my widow's and orphans portfolio.

[slasher16] 08/11/2006 00:12

Hi Liarspoker,

Mes a Tipp guy only 24 over year out of college. Was at Mahon point shopping centre there recently so i do know Cork. Bought united drug with my savings in colege a year and a have ago as a long term investment. Could prove a good investment long term with demographics and everything. I really thought they were a lifer given my skipping of lectures and reading many books on stocks and shares in the waterford IT libary. However this govt decision is having a serious impact on stock sentiment or are u sayin its goin to hit earnings for a couple of years goin foward? EPS in interims was 14% and is expected to be 12% for year ahead. Maybe the lesson here is to buy unregulated companies with higher profit margins?

Any views experienced investor?

[liarspoker] 02/11/2006 07:50

Hi Slasher - I am not Irish but I live in Cork which is a nice place actually. I also hold ANGL and added recently at the 10.70 & 11.20 Euro range so I am happy with that. My main market though would have to be the AIM, I like 'em small. :O)

There are difficulties ahead for UDG over the next year. I can't reveal what they are but the price is likely to remain stagnant over the next year with a slighlty lower growth rate ( say 10% ) then in previous years ( when it has been 15% ). Of course the Gov't is to blame ( I think you can work it out from there ).

I still hold but have reduced my exposure.

[slasher16] 02/11/2006 00:23

HI LIARSPOKER,

Your explanation of united drug is top class. See my comments in jun are exact same. You also have anglo irish bank i take it. Are u Irish? Best equity mkt in
world. Who needs ftse! Results for udg out in couple of weeks. Price closed 2day @ 3.63 euro. They are worth at least 4 euro with eps for year end at 20cent putting them on a p/e of 20. Not too demanding fro this company given its track record. Davy stockbrokers have a target of 4.40 for udg. Any comments on udg. Reckon im doin a cfd tomorrow in run up to results.

[liarspoker] 12/10/2006 08:07

UDG up this morning as well. ANGL too.

Must be starting it's run up to results imo.

[liarspoker] 10/10/2006 08:58

Hmmmm - up on my monitor but flat on the above charts on this thread ?!?!

ADVFN games ?

[liarspoker] 05/10/2006 08:20

Small Summary of T/S 05/10/06:

* Good trading conditions
* Strong growth in each of 4 divisions during 2006
* Northern Ireland Wholseale - market growth back to normal levels since PPRS.

* UK Contract Distribution joint venture experienced particularly strong growth following completion of major infrastructure development & new business wins last year.

* In2Focus, TD Packaging & Presearch ( H2 05 acquisitions ) now fully integrated and each has achieved its first year earn out targets.

* 2 Acquisitions this year:

* Endoscopy UK ( medical distribution specialist )
* Masta ( Leading service provider )

UDG sees earnings higher then last year and should meet market expectations. The company also sees further opportubities for growth.

[liarspoker] 05/10/2006 07:43

All divisions performing well, strong growth, 2 acquisitions.......looks good.

The only thing I don't like is where they say: should be in line with market expectations. There's a bit of ambiguity there imo.

Anyhow with Irelands aging & expanding population I am happy to hold this for the long term.

I read an article in the Sunday Business Post two or three weeks back where they predicted an influx of people of around 150,000 per year for at least 5 years then decreasing a small bit for the next 5. That gives an aweful lot of sick people heading to their pharmacy imo.

Let's see how the market likes these results, may give a top up opportunity.

[liarspoker] 04/10/2006 12:08

T/S tomorrow - last chance to buy before it...

[liarspoker] 03/10/2006 09:32

I wonder what the T/S on Thursday will bring.......I'm hoping for +- 15% growth but results might still be affected by the Magna move or the Gov'ts pricing policies......

[liarspoker] 02/10/2006 08:07

First trading day of the 2007 financial year - trading cheaply on expected 2007 results.

Can't argue with +- 15% yr on yer growth for both EPS & the Scrip divi.....

BTW is that a pennant that is forming ?

[liarspoker] 18/9/2006 08:08

Notice of Results

United Drug plc

Dublin: UDG.I London: UDG.L

2006 Full Year Trading Statement

Dublin, September 15, 2006: United Drug plc ("UD" or the "Group"), a leading
provider of services to pharmaceutical retailers and manufacturers in Ireland
and the UK, today confirmed that it will issue a trading statement, for the 12
months ending September 30, 2006, at 7.00am (GMT) on Thursday, October 5, 2006.

The Group will announce 2006 full year results on November 22, 2006 at 7.00am
(GMT).

For further details, please contact K Capital Source on [phone] or
[e-mail]


About United Drug plc

United Drug is a leading provider of services to pharmaceutical retailers and
manufacturers. It is the largest pharmaceutical wholesaler in the island of
Ireland. UD is also the market leader in contract distribution outsourcing
(pre-wholesaling) in Ireland and has achieved the No. 1 position in the UK
through its joint venture business UniDrug Distribution (UDG).

In addition to contract distribution services for pharma manufacturers, United
Drug provides contract distribution, sales & marketing and technical services to
Medical & Scientific equipment & consumable manufacturers, with a market leading
position in Ireland and an emerging presence in the UK.

United Drug is also leading provider of contract sales outsourcing services to
pharmaceutical manufacturers in the UK and Ireland.
Investors and analysts Media
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[liarspoker] 12/9/2006 00:29

Interesting - I know Mary Hickey well, never met Paddy though:

Celesio's listed rival, United Drug, maintains its Catalyst scheme - aimed at helping pharmacists to own or grow their business without imposing ownership rights or loyalty contracts - is intended to foster an independent pharmacy sector.

The company's general manager in Leinster, Ms Rosemary McCrath, said: "We made a strategical decision to not become involved in owning or running pharmacies. We wanted to support independent pharmacists and help young ones realise their dreams of owning their own business. We do not want to be in competition with our customers."

However industry competitors claim the company is part-funding the expansion of some of its largest customers.

Mr Paddy Hickey employs United Drug as his wholesaler and also sits on the wholesale group's advisory board.

When asked whether United Drug had contributed money to the Hickey group expansion, Ms McGrath said she would not comment on individual cases but said: "Through our Catalyst scheme (which is a debt-based scheme offered at a fixed rate) our strategy is to ensure that the same level of support is given to a pharmacist whether he or she is buying one pharmacy or a number of pharmacies.

"The vast majority of our customers who have availed of this scheme are singly owned individual pharmacists with 100 per cent control and ownership of their pharmacy from day one."

[liarspoker] 11/9/2006 16:12

The company is the same value now as +- 2 years ago. The market is innefficient alright, much to the delight of us investors. :O)

Just remember 80% of the people make their money 20% of the time. Another leg up is not too far away.

[liarspoker] 29/8/2006 12:21

Wonder if we'll see resistance or if it'll move up like ANGL has done.

If we do see resistance we could see a minor but sharp fall back.

Will be adding again at 230p if we see it. :O)

[liarspoker] 24/8/2006 22:27

Davy Healthcheck - United Drug - Delivery due - 21 Aug 2006

We believe that United Drug's recent de-rating is unjustified, and we therefore reiterate our 440c price target. A range of financial comparisons and valuation analyses support our view that United Drug should trade at a premium to the peer group average. This is merited by its consistent track record and the expectation of future outperformance. We remain positive on Elan's prospects in 2006/2007, with the real upside provided by its Alzheimer's disease franchise. Two blow-out quarters have set the tone for strong outperformance by ICON year-to-date. As the benefits of a strong backlog in the labs division convert to revenue and margin expansion, there could be further upside to our group forecasts.

[liarspoker] 23/8/2006 09:51

Thanks Trawl - 20%+ upside.....

I wonder what Davys 25 year forecast is with divies reinvested ?