Ubisense Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 22/11/2013 07:48

These things form a drip-drip of repeated business that will form a solid base of business and tier1 automotives don't sign infratructure deals with lightweights or flaky suppliers. Ubisense is embedded for years.

Do the maths. Delays are a natural consequence of large deals, it happens. I haven't read of cancellations, only delays. It's no surprise.

[grahamhacker] 22/11/2013 07:40

p1nkfish - you are right - this is no.4 of a possible 100 - extract belowThe order, valued at approximately EUR0.7m, is part of a global framework agreement with the manufacturer that covers more than 100 sites and this represents the fourth installation since production acceptance was granted in July this year.

[p1nkfish] 21/11/2013 13:00

The rns was a covert hint.
Read it carefully and do the maths.

[hastings] 21/11/2013 12:45

Nice to see the recent fall reversed.

[p1nkfish] 21/11/2013 07:48

if it's 700K per, look how many they have that could convert in future. The rns is a subtle hint??

[grahamhacker] 21/11/2013 07:33

0 .7m! Shame but it all helps a company that doesn't deserve the low sp!

[grahamhacker] 21/11/2013 07:11

Rns - is that 0.7m or 7m Euro?

[brummy_git] 20/11/2013 15:48

must have been a fat finger. well spotted

[aishah] 20/11/2013 15:47

fat finger. Can buy below 200

[grahamhacker] 20/11/2013 15:39

Is that a mistake! 60,000 @ 248!

[aylingd] 15/11/2013 16:56

Thanks Rivaldo.

Canaccord's price target of 240p looking a bit rich isn't it, I wonder what is their timescale on that.

D.

[rivaldo] 15/11/2013 10:46

Edison have reduced their forecasts - a loss of £0.64m this year and a miniscule £60k profit next year.

The m/cap remains at £42m.

They also note that the debt facility will be fully utilised next year. I strongly suspect there will have to be a fundraising at some point:

[p1nkfish] 13/11/2013 23:37

The volume has been low. Not a mass exodus/rush to the door.
Sit it out and add imho.

dyor and good luck.

[hastings] 13/11/2013 21:09

Not the best of news today, hence the price dipping down.
Some very sound comments from respected posters and I daresay people will be keeping a close eye on events ahead.
For what it is worth, I thought the recent weakness may be due to an impending placing in relation to tapping into a move for the ASIA Mkt as already flagged and I do feel that may still arise. My fairly recent meeting with the CEO suggested things were on track for an expected second haf run in for delivery relating to the full year numbers.

As for valuations, I fully appreciate the argument that at the current cap UBI could be regarded as expensive enough, however I am happy to sit with my small holding and let this run.
It is never an easy path for newcomers on the block as we all know.
More fail to make it than deliver, but those that do go on to fulfil early promise seldom have an easy ride. Should be interesting to see how this develops over the next year or two.

[aishah] 13/11/2013 16:52

Canaccord Reiterate Buy today with 240p target (down from 269p)

[azalea] 13/11/2013 16:46

The 2014 3 broker consensus(Charles Stanley, Edison & Canaccord G(before today's announcement) is Ptx 0.14, Eps 0.33p. We might get a more accurate sense of direction after FY results.

[aishah] 13/11/2013 13:58

Canaccord Genuity Ltd Forecast:
15-10-13,BUY 2013 PreTax=0.90, Eps=3.10 || 2014 PreTax=2.00, Eps=7.80

They are some distance out from the Edison and Charles Stanley forecasts.

[p1nkfish] 13/11/2013 12:01

No link at all, completely different.

[peawacks] 13/11/2013 11:29

I saw a video of a fund manager talking about Ubisoft (UBI). Is this connected. Sorry if this seems a daft question, but it did not relate to this company !

[p1nkfish] 13/11/2013 11:24

I will buy more if it falls back but so will a few others with deep pockets.
The next leg for this market is real growth companies and Ubisense offers that.
They are having to play the long game as this is industrial infrastructure with massive back-office opportunities. It's a hardware company with IT characteristics and infrastructure needs. Global.

Fair value - not sure and may never get to where I would be most happy to buy.

Look at the holder register and the price where their buys were seen.

[aylingd] 13/11/2013 10:45

Thanks guys. That puts things nicely into perspective.

D.

[masurenguy] 13/11/2013 10:42

rivaldo - 322: consensus forecasts for just 0.19p EPS for this year and 0.33p EPS for next year.....This against a £44m m/cap.....fundamentally a highly overvalued share price at present .....A 100p share price (say) would give a much more realistic valuation of around £22m....I'm not a holder at these levels and almost certainly won't be unless the share price falls some way from here.

Excellent post - just about sums up my view too !

[simon gordon] 13/11/2013 10:31

Tech Market View:

Wednesday 13 November 2013

Ubisense senses contract slipping to the right

It's always a disappointment when a major contract gets delayed, more so at year end. Such is the case at AIM-listed, Cambridge-based 'real-time location intelligence' products and services company Ubisense which alerted the market that a near-£2m deal won't make it into Q4 - wth all that that implies for FY expectations. There was some mitigation though with news of a $1m contract extension with "a large European automotive manufacturer".

When I last met CEO Richard Green a couple of months ago I felt much as I had the first time we met almost two years ago; here was a technology company with a 'real world' business solution that has global potential. The problem is that the potential is not being realised quickly enough or profitably. Serious thought needs to be applied to both execution and strategy.

[rivaldo] 13/11/2013 10:25

Aylingd, the consensus forecasts are for just 0.19p EPS for this year and 0.33p EPS for next year, i.e PBT of just £90k this year and £140k next year.

This against a £44m m/cap.

After today's update I assume that these forecasts will be further reduced.

UBI looks a top quality company to me. But it's one of those situations where investors have to decide whether they accept what is fundamentally a highly overvalued share price at present on the basis that UBI will - eventually - deliver fast growth at some point.

The downside risk looks much greater than the potential upside for me at present, especially as although there are loan facilities in place there's still the risk of further dilution for working capital.

A 100p share price (say) would give a much more realistic valuation of around £22m.

However....it seems UBI has strong institutional support, and there are a number of companies on the market which are valued at hundreds of millions of pounds which are still loss-making. So it's a question of whether you believe in the company so much that you can overlook the fundamentals and concentrate on the potential instead.

I'm not a holder at these levels and almost certainly won't be unless the share price falls some way from here.