Ubisense Share Discussion Threads

[bergster56] 08/3/2012 08:22

but the results were nothing to write home about

[ltinvestor] 08/3/2012 07:39

Institutional buying after presentations.The stock has probably come from the house broker not sellers.

[bergster56] 07/3/2012 22:21

Time will tell

[timtom2] 07/3/2012 21:39

Someone is taking the sells.

[bergster56] 07/3/2012 20:17

I have to say that the results were pretty disappointing:
The revenue increase in the RTLS division was not exactly outstanding given we are led to believe the market for this is absolutely huge.

Cash flows are a concern.

Operating profit was not impressive when excluding true exceptionals

The reliance on 10 customers for nearly 70% of the revenue is not, in my view is impressive.

No clear numbers on the contracts/tie ups announced recently.

Growth - even of revenue does not justify the lofty valuation.



Some may not agree with the above - somebody certainly does though as the last 2 days have seen consistent selling with not 1 purchase of shares post results.

[ltinvestor] 07/3/2012 15:39

>bergster.Very strong institutional interest after the results with new institutions .Certainly not dumping of stock!!

[bergster56] 07/3/2012 15:07

large volumes of stock have been dumped yesteray and so far today also. No buys, all sells. I have to admit I have also sold out. Will post later giving my own views.

[timtom2] 06/3/2012 21:47

From my point of view:

1) The big OEMs only use and install kit from 100% solid companies. I know of one big OEM that looks at the balance sheet of suppliers to check their solidity and if even a little flaky they won't use/commit. Hence, Ubisense must have jumped through some hoops for BMW, EADS etc to adopt. Good validation of the business.

2) In the current environment there is one area that has not suffered much in the way of cap-ex cut-backs. That is investment in systems that drive through increased efficiency which is equivalent to saving money. Ubisense kit does that in a production environment. In the West and Japan that is really handy 7 t pays for itself. It's only a matter of time before the cheaper areas of the industrialised world need to do the same so it becomes a ubiquitous requirement.

Ubisense will get bought out. No idea when but a GE or Honeywell or similar will come knocking one day.

[apad] 06/3/2012 19:19

M...
The technology has a good pedigree and these boys know their toys from soup to nuts.
However, a significant take-up of their toys needs the big boys to be investing heavily in their infrastructure, which requires a more buoyant world economy.
So, I too am sticking to a watching brief.
I'd be interested in your thinking about the basis for an appropriate financial evaluation metric.
My concern is that a gap might develop between UBI's need to keep developing their systems (boys' toys are expensive) and the willingness of customers to wholeheartedly commit.
Proph...
I think your point about the detail in the licensing deals is key to this debate.
apad
ps good to see Mr. M. panicking again - might be some opportunities.

[bergster56] 06/3/2012 18:32

excellent set of results from a growth company in a sector which is massively relevant in today's economic climate - Lean thinking.

[the prophet] 06/3/2012 15:23

-valuation may be too high, but I'm not sure. Depends on what the forecasts for this year are, presumably their brokers and others will be issuing new/updated forecasts on the back of these results.

[masurenguy] 06/3/2012 15:19

Still a great fan of their technology and I'm keeping this one high up on my watchlist. However the current valuation is far too rich for my palate and I'm looking for a pull back to provide a much better entry point.

[the prophet] 06/3/2012 13:55

-be interested to know what the set up with the deals are then, ie is it a license fee , for example, for £1m with maintenance/support at say £100K a year? I would guess the recurring revenue element will take some years to build up to something substantive, but I don't actually know. The last three deals have contained absolutely no financial details at all on which to make any judgement as to how the deals are structured, beyond the last one being done under an already existing global license deal with BMW.

-Needs a decent brokers note to put some flesh on the bones, forward projections, margins etc. Margins, as in the techmark pice I posted earlier, look pretty thin, admitedly on a historical basis, for a co rated @ 40 times historic eps.

[ltinvestor] 06/3/2012 13:02

Tim Tom. My thoughts exactly,increasing recurring revenue from major clients worldwide.Nasdaq listing one day?

[timtom2] 06/3/2012 12:44

Each installation should (?) result in recurring revenue streams for the future via software and back office work??

Then there is maintenaince and spares work.

All adds up.

The there will be a system in place to piggy-back other offerings on to in the RTLS industrial process control space.

That is what I like about this - their installations can be a little like annuities that keep paying out.

[the prophet] 06/3/2012 10:27

-preliminary results out, can't see the announcement on advfn, but here is a link to them



-yet another announcement today re the BMW Mini plant, shame they never put any revenue info with any of these releases.

-here is the TechMark view (run by the respected Richard Holway)on UBI results



Ubisense picking up pace
Anthony Miller, 9.51am Tuesday 6th Mar 2012

Cambridge-based, 'real-time locations solutions' company, Ubisense, confirmed FY numbers (see Ubisense locates FY numbers in the right position), turning in 34% revenue growth to £23.8m (year to 31st Dec. 2011), including a small contribution from its two acquisitions (Realworld and InMaps).

As I had rather expected (see Margins slip at Ubisense maiden interims), profitability was a mixed story. At the 'adjusted' level (basically EBITDA less 'exceptionals'), margins improved a tad from 5.9% to 6.2%. But if you look at the IFRS number and take out only the AIM listing costs (a true 'exceptional') then operating margins fell from 3.5% to 2.6%. But the good news is that the RTLS division (36% of group revenues) is much more profitable (8.1% adjusted margin) compared to barely break-even in 2010.

Ubisense was the first 'real' UK SITS IPO last June after a year's hiatus (see Ubisense gets off to fine start on AIM). Its shares are currently 24% above the 180p listing price, with today's news nudging them up by 1% to 220.5p.

[bergster56] 29/2/2012 16:48

No volume all day then nearly £200k worth of stock picked up just before the close!!!!!

[bergster56] 29/2/2012 09:35

i also agree. The growth of the whole sector is very well capable of supporting Ubisense in its quest to grow. Barriers to entry are also high due to the high specialisation of the technology. Also buyers (BMW, AUDI etc) expect a certain amount of expertise from the company, and will go with someone reliable. Ubisense is clearly in that category due to the quality of tie ups and also the customers they've already won...

[timtom2] 28/2/2012 15:16

I wouldn't agree with the peer group shown. Too many companies that are not even in the same segment/sector but just happen to be wireless.

[bergster56] 28/2/2012 14:50

Found this while trawling the net...

[jakleeds] 27/2/2012 11:24

Looking good here, and only worth £46million..

[bergster56] 27/2/2012 09:46

excellent tie up. Clearly market penetration is set to grow exponentially over the next 6-12 months

[ltinvestor] 27/2/2012 08:34

Further good announcement today regarding partnership with ATS-GLOBAL.

[bergster56] 26/2/2012 07:43

in a niche sector
worldwide adoption of technology
strong brand name
excellent management who own an ideal percentage of the company
no debt
growth market