Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[honiton] 18/1/2012 07:54

compare and contrast the inverse relationship between nos. of postings and share price performance:

NEW and TLW come to mind.

[nw99] 18/1/2012 07:30

Good numbers from Tullow this am and
HIGHLIGHTS
Exploration and Appraisal activities

· 74% exploration and appraisal success ratio in 2011; basin-opening Zaedyus discovery in French Guiana.
· New exploration partnering initiatives being pursued including a frontier exploration partnership with Shell in the Atlantic basin.
· Great progress on appraisal of Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) in Ghana; Ntomme-2A successfully encountered light oil in excellent quality sandstone reservoirs reinforcing the TEN resource base.
· Appraisal activities in Uganda in EA-1 have provided further valuable data; seismic campaign completed; important licence extensions received.
· Surveys in Kenya and Ethiopia completed; Ngamia-1 well in Kenya due to spud imminently.
· High-impact E&A programme consisting of approximately 40 wells planned for 2012.
Development and Operations activities

· Group working interest production averaged 78,200 boepd in 2011; production in 2012 is forecast to average between 78,000 and 86,000 boepd with an exit rate of over 90,000 boped expected.
· Gross Jubilee production is currently over 70,000 bopd and following a number of remedial activities is expected to average 70,000 to 90,000 bopd in 2012.
· Jubilee Phase 1A development plan now approved with drilling scheduled to commence in March 2012.
· TEN development Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) work is progressing in parallel with appraisal. Plan of Development to be submitted Q3 2012 with first oil expected c.30 months after approval.
· Tullow is finalising arrangements with the Ugandan Government to complete the $2.9 billion farmdown and commence basin development.
Group financials

· Record 2011 financial results expected; 2011 sales revenue of $2.3 billion forecast, over double 2010.
· 2011 full year capital expenditure of $1.4 billion.
· Forecast 2012 capital expenditure of $2.0 billion.
· Net debt at 31 December 2011 was approximately $2.8 billion.

COMMENTING TODAY, AIDAN HEAVEY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE SAID:
"Record revenues and cash flows from increased production and strong commodity prices combined with industry-leading exploration success underpin another very good year for Tullow in 2011. In 2012 we expect significant progress in Ghana and Uganda as we move forward with Jubilee well remediation and Phase 1A, TEN and the Lake Albert developments. We have an exciting exploration programme to open new basins, both onshore and offshore, and we hope to extend our reach in Africa and elsewhere along the Atlantic Margins with major new partnerships. There is much to look forward to in the year ahead."

[broadwood] 18/1/2012 07:18

Good news all round.

[85gary] 17/1/2012 15:32

I actually read it all. Bit lengthy, but interested me.

[eipgam] 17/1/2012 12:27

ah... poss, but I am assuming that the market has started to ignore the share price discount that was attributed to UG situation. Therefore, only a deterioation in UG will take us back down again. And anything else will cement the rise.

IMO

[tomgorham12] 17/1/2012 12:17

The only other short-term cloud I can think of, at least in respect of the share price, is its strength over the past month. With a 10%+ rise in the last 30 days I assume that some good news is already in the price.

[eipgam] 17/1/2012 11:21

ath is 1508... as I trype, we are 3.5% below that. We can expect increased production in West Africa, more good news in S America, resolution in UG, a serious wedge of cash to be deposited in the bank, possible continued share buying by China and other M&A chatter, maybe even an increased divi this year?... all imo, natch... The only real possible cloud I can see is continued belligerance from UG.

Famous last words?

[85gary] 17/1/2012 09:47

I hope you are right eipgam. Not much direct from Tullow of late so maybe a few good things in the trading statement?

Going back to an earlier comment about Total's possible interest in Tullow. If Uganda is sorted then I can easily see it in Total's interest to look to exporting through Uganda (for S Sudan oil), so maybe this warrants a bit of thought?

[eipgam] 17/1/2012 09:40

ATH on it's way, if I am not mistaken. Only a few short months after languishing in the £9s...

[85gary] 16/1/2012 14:30

Production optimism, no doubt in part due due to the expected move away from Iranian supply?



A decision by companies operating in Ghana's Jubilee oil field, including U.K.-based Tullow Oil Plc, to purchase the previously leased floating production, storage and offloading vessel used at the site, "points to some optimism with regards to their perceived ability to source ready markets for the country's oil exports," according to Kafe and Masia. "This has led us to temper our pessimism with regards to oil export volumes," they said.

The vessel was bought from Modec Inc., Thomas Manu, an official at the state-owned Ghana National Petroleum Corp., which also holds a stake in the Jubilee site, said by phone Jan. 6. Daily oil output is expected to rise to 120,000 barrels "between February and May" from the rate of 85,000 barrels at the end of 2011, according to Morgan Stanley.

[eipgam] 15/1/2012 12:06

trading statement on Wed...

[85gary] 13/1/2012 08:40

Good link Sillyname. So that is the president and prime minister taken care of..............all heading in the right direction for a solution.



The Chinese delegation on Thursday handed over a newly constructed building, whose construction was funded by that country. The building will house the Ugandan president and prime minister's offices.
̷2;

China has also funded the construction of a hospital and several roads in the country.



Meanwhile, plans are underway for China to construct a railway line.

[tomgorham12] 12/1/2012 21:30

To me it seems like the same story that was circulating a bit before Christmas - Oil Minister's quotes are eerily familiar.

[ringer12] 12/1/2012 17:31

What does "soon" and "shortly" mean in Ugandan and what year does before "end of January" refer. Also has the arbitration in London been postponed for another year or two or is it deemed irelavent to any proceedings in Uganda.
Just a thought..could all those barristers involved in the arbitration be investing all their earnings in Tullow shares with the resultant uptick!

[eipgam] 12/1/2012 17:05

I think we can believe it this time....

[85gary] 12/1/2012 14:31

It is dated 2012. I had to check as I'm sure I saw almost exactly the same article a year ago. Time flies.....

[wodahsnoom] 12/1/2012 13:15

Guyanne is too early, Aminex target of 100 mlb x 25% insignificant and no reason to think news on Uganda is on the way imho. Following market & sector given Iranian tensions I'd say.

[ben chod] 12/1/2012 12:08

doesnt it just then the predictive fall on annoucement

[tomgorham12] 12/1/2012 11:21

Doesn't it always rise pre-trading statement? Particularly this time given Ugandan expectations.

[willy26] 12/1/2012 10:33

Could be Guyanne