Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 16/11/2022 11:31

Yes, agree, the exploration failure is epic.

I guess that's not really Rahul's fault at this stage but going forward he will have to take responsibility. They may need to review what the exploration team has been doing. I wouldn't say sack them all but definitely give them a solid grilling to see what is happening and then decide. Maybe they need approaches to seismic or something like that..

from lse
hxxps://www.offshore-energy.biz/four-more-wells-on-tullows-drilling-agenda-off-ghana/

lse seems to have most of tullow chat.

[thommie] 16/11/2022 10:14

Im really happy, that after the end of the capricorn merger a news alert actually means one and isnt one of the 10 daily holding rnses...Tullow really didnt have any luck doing exploration drilling in the last 6-7 years. But every losing streak sometimes comes to an end. Maybe in cote de ivory just aside the TEN fpso? :)

[xxnjr] 16/11/2022 09:37

And a good morning to you Fz!

Well I'm sure if you put your mind to it you good drum up a few positives (like operating efficiency for example) in answer to your Q. But at the end of the day there is only so much that can be done with the existing assets and debt load being what it was when Rahul took up the challenge.

[florenceorbis] 16/11/2022 09:00

rté



Tullow Oil narrows production forecast range
Updated / Wednesday, 16 Nov 2022 08:11

The West Africa-focused oil producer is trying to bring down costs after two strategic wells returned disappointing results

Tullow Oil narrowed its annual production forecast range and cut capital investment expenditure estimate today.

This comes as the West Africa-focused oil producer attempts to bring down costs after two strategic wells returned disappointing results.

The company now expects its full-year production to be between 61,000 and 62,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Its forecast for 2022 capital investment was reduced to about $360m, while free cash flow forecast was raised to $250m.

Tullow's plans to merger with Capricorn Energy were foiled in September when Israel's NewMed swooped in.

It said a number of "strategic and operational initiatives" were going on and they were expected to evolve in the coming months.

The company decided to push back its capital markets update to 2023 until it has an update on its strategy and outlook for investors, it said.

[lyreco1] 16/11/2022 08:39

XXn you truly are a nasty piece of work and a cry baby at that grow up.

My concerns posted yesterday has proven to be factual nothing more than kick the can down the road from Rahul with more duster drills and nothing about Kenya.

Remind us all, what has he actually done since he arrived at TLW?

[buhdonkatonk] 16/11/2022 03:08

Africa oil Q3"I think there is a good chance that we will have an announcement of our partnership before the end of the year." In the presentation. -Keith Hill Africa Oil CEONo mention of Kenya when talking about high impact catalysts or anywhere else in the press release. In the Q report, one paragraph about kenya at the bottom reads that advanced discussions are ongoing with interested parties. A successful farmout is critical towards Fid over the next year. There is no guarantee the company can be successful on favorable terms. Q2Kenya is mentioned as a catalyst on the press release I'm the Q report, Kenya is mentioned as a catalyst. The Kenya paragraph from Q3 is copied, but is placed above the other exploration projects. Q1Kenya is not mentioned in press release. Kenya paragraph is last. The end of the year is 45 days away. I find it interesting he would use that language "by the end of the year" in the q3 presentation

[xxnjr] 15/11/2022 23:17

".....The Vice President further mentioned that the government will be keenly looking forward to the realization of Tullow’s investment decisions on ongoing projects including the execution of post-foundation commercial gas agreements, exploration interests, and other projects being considered by Tullow and its partners in Ghana....."

[xxnjr] 15/11/2022 22:53

lyreco1 15 Nov '22 - 20:22 - 58202 of 58203
0 0 0
Dreading tomorrow
===========================

It seems a certain poster's posts have fizzled out on the Block Energy and Tullow Oil boards. At the same time a new moniker turns up trashing both companies.

Conclusion: Maybe Fizz = ly-re? Who knows? LoL!

[xxnjr] 15/11/2022 21:44

Keith Hill on the 3Q webcast. "Keep your eyes on the press. There's a good chance there will be an announcement on Kenya partnering before year end". But as he also said; it's one of those 'believe it when you see it' situations.

[lyreco1] 15/11/2022 20:22

Dreading tomorrow

[buhdonkatonk] 15/11/2022 16:18

I don't expect that Kenya will be farmed out before 2025. The Chinese and Indians are getting their oil from Russia now on favorable terms. The only other place I see the money coming from is the majors, and they aren't expanding due to esg.

[xxnjr] 15/11/2022 09:26

Agree FID delay shows it was a pragmatic decision to sell out of Uganda in hindsight.

Here's another Ex-Tullow discovery from 2013 which was flogged off as TLW ran out of cash just shunted back into the sidings.

"Equinor and its partners have pushed back by up to four years the final investment decision for the deep-water Wisting oilfield development offshore Norway after predicted costs spiralled by some 60%, just weeks after stating that there were no technical or environmental hurdles to the project being sanctioned in December.

On Thursday the Norwegian operator said that the Wisting co-venturers are now continuing to mature the project and are now aiming for an investment “by end of 2026”.

The envisaged escalating costs – the updated capital expenditure is Nkr104 billion..."

===============================

On Kenya Africa Oil's Q3's basically regurgitate previous comments

"In 2021, the Company and its partners initiated a farmout process for Project Oil Kenya. Advanced discussions are on-going with the interested parties. A successful farmout is viewed by the Company as a critical step towards the FID for Project Oil Kenya being achieved over the course of the next year. There is no guarantee that the Company can successfully conclude a farmout to new strategic partner(s) on favorable terms."

[alfiex] 15/11/2022 09:12

Uganda was a ball and chain for Tullow and Kenya becoming one, just get rid and move on.

[thommie] 15/11/2022 09:06

Sometimes (like in uganda) it's better to just leave the place and take whatever you can get for it. If tullow would exit kenya completely and could get a similar amount for it like in uganda I would be very glad. You not only avoid any problems in cost that will come with any project development (I mean higher cost than anticipated) but as well any possible production problems that could occur, paying higher interest rates for the next 4-5 years for the amount of money not paid off the current debt burdon while waiting for first production, problems with the corrupt government which could delay the project even further and any other things that can come with laying pipelines like in uganda...Searching for oil in uganda and kenya was in hindsight nothing else than burning money. It doesnt get better to go on burning your money just because you already lost billions. Sometimes it's better to correct you past mistakes and carry on.The anticipated net debt end of this year is expected to be around 1,9b. If tlw would be able to exit kenya completely and get around 500m$ for it this would shrink to only 1,4b, lowering the anual interest payments over the years by around 60m$! That would lead to additional debt repayments of around 300m because of saved interest rates in the next 5 years when first production of a possible development in kenya might be starting...Just imagine...

[billy_buffin] 15/11/2022 08:52

TotalEnergies faces rising religious opposition to EACOP project

The pipeline that TotalEnergies and CNOOC plan to build between Uganda and Tanzania is under fire from influential east African and French religious leaders. Their protests have forced the French major to try and justify the project publicly.

10/11/2022
Africa Intel

[alfiex] 15/11/2022 08:28

Dont like the last sentence about favourable terms.Taken from Africa oils results...partners initiated a farmout process for Project Oil Kenya. Advanced discussions are on-going with the interested parties. A successful farmout is viewed by the Company as a critical step towards the FID for Project Oil Kenya being achieved over the course of the next year. There is no guarantee that the Company can successfully conclude a farmout to new strategic partner(s) on favorable terms.

[kulvinder] 13/11/2022 21:21

Posted Adieuk32 on the LSE BB;Adieuk32Posts: 1,906Price: 48.66Strong BuyHISTORIC ~~~~BOPD ~~~ DEBT ~~~POO ~~~ MARKET CAPToday 19:462015. 73,400BOPD. Debt $4Billion. share price £3.50 POO $37 Market Cap 5 Billion2016. 71,700BOPD. Debt $4.8Billion. share price £1.60 POO $56 Market Cap 2.5 Billion2017. 94,700BOPD. Debt $3.5Billion share price £2.60 POO $66 Market Cap 3.5 Billion2018. 90,000BOPD. Debt $3.1Billion share price £2.30 POO $54 Market Cap 3 Billion2019. 86,700BOPD. Debt $2.8Billion share price £2.00 POO $67 Market Cap 2.5 Billion2020. 74,900BOPD. Debt $2.4Billion share price £0.60p POO $50 Market Cap 800 Million2021. 59,200BOPD. Debt $2.1Billion share price £0.30p POO $77 Market Cap 400 Million2022. 63,000BOPD. Debt$1.9Billion share price £0.48p POO $95 Market Cap 700 MillionStill think we are fairly priced??Way undervalued, lets see what the next few weeks bring.GL ALL

[buhdonkatonk] 11/11/2022 04:06

Africa Oil reports Monday After close, and CC is on Tuesday morning at 9 Eastern time(2PM gmt). They normally don't say much about Kenya, but they may give slightly more color than Rahul.

[xxnjr] 10/11/2022 18:07

Ah! thanks bootycall. Well spotted. And there's a trading update next wed 16th/Nov.

[bootycall] 10/11/2022 14:36

@xxnjr its the 7th December.

The CC for Kosmos clearly stated that the two strategic wells drilled were attempting to define the aerial extent of potentially “new reserves” not the reserves booked to date. I would not jump to conclusions in advance of the CMD. It might be fair to describe the last two wells as disappointing at those precise locations relative to pre drill expectations…but not to opine on how production will ramp up on for the rest of the acreage. If you look at the drilling history of the TEN field you will see that there is a stratigraphic play. Past wells encountering thin sands have subsequently deviated into sections of up to 600 metres of pay. It is important that Tullow grade prospects according to their return on capital…if Rahul cannot describe his plans coherently after over two and a half years at the helm…he should be sacked as CEO. I think he is good at sweating production assets but,IMO,he is poor at providing proper production guidance to markets. He simply does not have the luxury of sitting back…his failure to communicate has allowed bond investors to misconstrue forward free cash flow resulting in mispriced redemption yields on our debt. We are a sitting target for a takeover. Perception will change completely if they close a proper deal with a Kenya farminee. Booty

[xxnjr] 08/11/2022 14:30

mcs - possibly is reason for today's decline.

Another Q was along the lines of; given the N'tomme riser wells seem to be at lower end of expectations where do we go from here on Greater N'tomme? I may have to listen again but the answer was kind of like; well we chose to not put those wells on production but results were useful in calibrating seismic but we are in dialog with the operator regarding some sort of potential tweneboa/N'tomme development that will comprise both gas and oil and compete for capital with our other FID's. Somebody else as a follow on then asked the Q above in 58189.

My takeaway FWIW is the T and N bits of TEN aren't quite as promising as Tullow were suggesting earlier in the year. Drill bit always the final arbiter. I guess it means TEN is more of a plodder, not an exciting growth project. But we need to hear this (or a more positive message) from the operator (Tullow). Last year there was a trading update on 17/Nov.....

Has the Capital Markets Day been canned? Haven't a clue!