Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 07/11/2022 02:44

Methinks it's just EN-21P. Production was about 30K before latest well which looks to be another step out to the north. Enyenra is generally well understood. N'tomme is the head scratcher. Will learn tomorrow if NT Riser Base-2 was any good. If yes, won't be on production yet thommie, as sub-sea infrastructure isn't in place until mid 2023?

[thommie] 06/11/2022 22:19

That would be big news, as tlws share of that possible 100%jump in production at TEN is over 50%... Did they finally understand the complexity of enyenra? Or is it enyenra plus a producing strategic ntomme well?

[xxnjr] 06/11/2022 12:20

Tanker just left TEN. Production seemingly has jumped to the 37.5k to 40K bopd range.
Possibly a tad higher.

[mcsean2164] 05/11/2022 22:45

This on lse

the half year results.....



"Since 1 Jan 2022, there have been ongoing discussions with Government of Kenya on the approval of FDP and securing government deliverables. The FDP is currently under review with Government of Kenya with review period extended to 6 November 2022."
Might be some news on this soon?

[xxnjr] 05/11/2022 16:31

There will be good news on TEN EN-21P!!!

[subsurface] 05/11/2022 10:57

Kosmos next report on Monday 7th November.

[xxnjr] 05/11/2022 09:45

No worries SS. Just to clarify everyone my "average $96/cargo" above refers to the prevailing oil price when cargoes actually shipped not the post-hedging realised price which will be lower. But all good as TLW forecasting $200m FCF at oil price $95! Next year, as you imply SS, should get better as there should be less interest as debt $200m lower and from mid-year a lower percentage of production will be hedged.

[subsurface] 05/11/2022 03:12

Thanks XX

OPEC said the production cuts would take effect in November so we are on track looking to mid 2023 as a good guide on the Tullow master plan.

[xxnjr] 04/11/2022 16:49

Thank goodness! OP back to $98. If it stays above $95 debt should come down by c.$200m at year end. So far, based on cargo shipping dates, I reckon Jubilee has averaged $96/cargo in 2H to date. But, since Ghana.gov haven't updated their website, I cannot say what the ave price of TLW cargo's was (as approx 1 of 3, sometimes 1 of 2 jubilee cargoes is all Tullow). If you see what I mean.

[mcsean2164] 04/11/2022 16:31

That was fast! Was a difference a week without CNE makes 😅

[mcsean2164] 02/11/2022 23:49

NewMed Energy share price seems to be suffering now too....

[mcsean2164] 02/11/2022 17:52

Well they've used up nearly half of the spr. Forecasts is for December 23rd to still be below pre pandemic levels





There's not enough left in the spr to release a million barrels per day until December 23 and the current release is probably depressing where production would be.

The world seems to have gone pretty crazy since covid19 or maybe that's just me getting old.

[xxnjr] 02/11/2022 13:59

I guess US folks tend to get a bit animated by high fuel prices. Currently $4/gal I believe. Lucky them. There would be a riot if they had Euro fuel prices.

[mcsean2164] 02/11/2022 13:47

(SPR) sad but true. Not sure why the US people are not appalled by Biden selling out their energy security when it doesn't have to be sold.

2022-Oct 10/07 408,699 10/14 405,135 10/21 401,718

Must be under 400 million now versus its 726 million peak.

Seems like madness to me. At least Tullow is filling some of the gap left by lack of investment I guess although with global warming it's hard to know what to think anymore....

[janhar] 02/11/2022 12:55

Also the US will stop releasing from the SPR after the midterms on 7th Nov. Oil price will rocket once this stops.

[mcsean2164] 02/11/2022 10:50

xxjnr,

That's interesting, I was looking at hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0001500809/

Euroclear seems to have a better picture.

My guess (totally a guess and not financial advise) would be that some were hedging, short tullow + long capricorn.



The deal is officially off so will be interesting to see how long it takes to get back to where were in June. Not long would be my guess.

[xxnjr] 02/11/2022 00:56

mcs,

Euroclear: 8.06% were out on loan end sept. latest available numbers.

According to the FT "Chinese equities rose on Wednesday, holding on to gains made the previous day as unsubstantiated rumours that the country was looking to end its strict zero-Covid policy boosted investor sentiment." If that were to happen then I guess the Oil Price would strengthen.

[mcsean2164] 01/11/2022 15:15

Xxjnr,

Not too bothered it the share price keeps trending in this direction 😉

I doubt there's much of a float for any hedging shorts looking to exit. ...if such shorts exist...

[xxnjr] 01/11/2022 00:37

Hurray!.... but you won't get those regular Azvalor Form 8.3's!!!

[franky15] 31/10/2022 18:17

Yeh may last year , crazy when you think about it we hit 65p then

[kulvinder] 31/10/2022 18:04

Hope poo falls to £50 usd then maybe we will be back to 60p. Lol

[franky15] 31/10/2022 16:27

WTF oil down we are up

[waldron] 31/10/2022 16:05

Jon Hopkins

15:50 Mon 31 Oct 2022
Investor deep dive

Southern Energy Corp is focused on developing conventional energy in the southeast Gulf states of the USA

Tullow Oil reinstated at 'overweight' by Barclays following Capricorn Energy merger termination

The Barclays analysts said the Capricorn merger was just an opportunity to accelerate a strategy that Tullow is already successfully executing Oil barrels


The Barclays analysts said that a Capital Markets Day on December 7, 2022, should provide a refreshed medium-term growth outlook for Tullow

Analysts at Barclays have reinstated their 'Overweight' rating and 67p price target for Tullow Oil PLC (LSE:TLW) following news on October 28, 2022, of the termination of its proposed all-share merger with Capricorn Energy PLC (LSE:CNE, OTC:CRNZF).

In its statement last Friday, Tullow noted that on September 29, the board of Capricorn announced that it had withdrawn its intention to recommend the merger, and the board of Tullow subsequently announced that it had no intention to increase the value of its offer for Capricorn or to elect to implement the combination by way of a contractual offer.

The company said that Capricorn's statement last Friday confirmed that it has provided its consent to the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers to release Tullow from its obligations under the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers to proceed with the combination, and, accordingly, Tullow's board had confirmed that decision.

In a brief comment on Monday, the Barclays analysts said the merger was just an opportunity to accelerate a strategy that Tullow is already successfully executing.

They also reinstated their previous estimates for the FTSE 250-listed oil play and said December 7, 2022, Capital Markets Day (CMD) should provide a refreshed medium-term growth outlook.


Proactive

[badger36] 31/10/2022 11:48

If this is true- and I don't doubt the sincerity of the post- then this is nothing short of incompetence and ineptitude at the highest level. Not only has executive and board level shafted us but the geology nerds are not worthy of being called water diviners. Why has the same team been allowed to behave like the dart throwing monkeys and are huge cost to shareholders It is time for a mutiny