Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[justthemoney] 16/4/2020 12:01

TLW needs $35+ average (including hedges) to stay afloat. It also needs to farm down some assets to raise cash as part of the recent RBL deal. Low oil price raises doubt about these issues, and the next RBL is in Sep, hence much larger share price volatility. Oil price will be much higher regardless on inventory levels (soon to be full) once covid eases and most of US shale goes bust! It'll take 4-8 weeks to play out, but bottom should be within the next 4 weeks as covid lockdowns in major economies extend. 2022/3 oil at $100+, chronic under investment and growing demand will tilt the market to undersupplied. Saudis/Russia cannot produce any more than 12mbpd (March levels), so there'll be shortage of oil. India will overtake China as biggest oil consumer. TLW equity shares if survive in current form will be 300p+. IMO, DYOR.

[eodfire] 16/4/2020 11:47

Yes, there is a real risk if oil stays low for an extended period, i.e a few years. But I don't think this will be the case. My view is that there is a good risk/reward ratio with tullow at the moment. I obviously haven't thrown my life savings in here either. If it were to go bust, for any reason, I will still be able to sleep easily at night.

[turvart] 16/4/2020 11:42

Viku,

With 1.1 BLN of net assets! NO!, the oil price is hedged also.

Also DEBT/EBIDTA is only 2X.

So NO chance, not in the next 2 years any way!

[viku111] 16/4/2020 11:40

Serious question to ask - do you not think 'insolvency' is not a possibility? Thoughts?

[turvart] 16/4/2020 10:53

Have you noticed, the slightest of tick downs bring the mongols in force. And their poxy spreadbets don't even count in the market.

[spec7] 16/4/2020 10:51

As i said , massive over sell yesterday, bit of unnecessary panic. They may not know where its going day to day but i think its not unreasonable to say Up in the medium term which is good enough for me in such uncertain times.

[eodfire] 16/4/2020 10:51

Not today.

[spirito] 16/4/2020 10:48

finish red still

[eodfire] 16/4/2020 10:41

My personal take on it is that unfortunately it was a perfect storm. Bad updates, ceo departure, oil crashing, covid 19... Tullow was obviously priced for insolvency when it dipped to the recent lows but as we know, some good hedges are in place. Well done to anyone buying under 10p. Again, only my view, but I think tullow will recover relatively speaking when the price of oil lifts and the covid 19 situation improves. I am more than happy to hold medium term here. I would like to see a pound per share before consider selling.

[cool hand kev] 16/4/2020 10:41

I've just added @18.1p

[mcsean2164] 16/4/2020 10:34

As it stands and at the current rate, there is about 5 weeks before storage hits a new high.



I don't see another build of 19.5 million barrels. In fact, I reckon in five weeks the builds will be substantially less, so maybe 2 months before peak storage is reached. In addition, looks like a lot of production will be removed in the US. Will the situation be normalised in two months or continue. I don't know. GL all and stay safe.

[grupo guitarlumber] 16/4/2020 10:34

baby thrown out with bath water syndrome

look at other oil majors not much difference

algo robots programmed for key words that will send s share price up or down

try to stick to fundementals and outlook

now awaiting latest updates



badmashy
16 Apr '20 - 10:27 - 46669 of 46669
0 0 0
I am new to Tullow and just could not resist these low prices to buy in for medium term. Just a quick question for Long Term Tullow holders. If Tullow hedged against falling oil price for 2020 and 2021 then why reducing oil prices are effecting us massively. I think we got average at $54 hedged. We will get difference no matter what price go down to. Thankful in advance to all who will help enlighten me. Good luck us all.

[badmashy] 16/4/2020 10:27

I am new to Tullow and just could not resist these low prices to buy in for medium term. Just a quick question for Long Term Tullow holders. If Tullow hedged against falling oil price for 2020 and 2021 then why reducing oil prices are effecting us massively. I think we got average at $54 hedged. We will get difference no matter what price go down to. Thankful in advance to all who will help enlighten me. Good luck us all.

[eodfire] 16/4/2020 10:21

Why not. A new ceo must surely give some stability and direction to the company and in my view, will be looked at very positively. The start of the proper recovery as long as the price of oil plays ball?

[turvart] 16/4/2020 10:09

Maybe the MM's know something about the new CEO and had a massive tree shake yesterday to gain more shares or maybe trying to fill a large buy order?

[turvart] 16/4/2020 10:07

Eodfire,

Bloody hell! so a new CEO could really add some whack to the SP!

[eodfire] 16/4/2020 10:07

Was also another disappointing update around the same time which don't help...

[eodfire] 16/4/2020 10:06

Early December 2019.

[eodfire] 16/4/2020 10:05

Caused the drop from 200p down to 150p I think.

[turvart] 16/4/2020 10:01

BBB,

Filtered!

[big bull billy] 16/4/2020 10:00

BUY BUY BUY
BIG BULL BILLY
BBB.

[turvart] 16/4/2020 09:59

Well announcement of new CEO yeah I would like to think it would push the share price up, wasn't this one of the reasons the share price fell a fair bit, when they sacked or he resigned.

[turvart] 16/4/2020 09:59

Well announcement of new CEO yeah I would like to think it would push the share price up, wasn't this one of the reasons the share price fell a fair bit, when they sacked or he resigned.