Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 22/1/2020 14:35

Who is having a party on 31st January....

[stupmy] 22/1/2020 14:32

Sbb1x you could make the same argument for SXX, you could have bought at 3.5 p and got out at 5.5, but the truth is the vast majority of SHs will not have felt good about the 'TO'.

[billy_buffin] 22/1/2020 14:24

Peru well, Marina-1 joint venture TLW/Karoon Energy

"Stena Forth" departed Callao Port now a couple of days north at Talara Anchorage close to the drill site and taking on materials from attending PSV's
(TLW/ASX:KAR joint venture)

[stupmy] 22/1/2020 14:17

That's not necessarily a good thing for SH's. Check out SXX, Ophir and you could easily find others.

[sbb1x] 22/1/2020 14:09

Lower it goes the more likely a take over offer comes in.

[bootycall] 22/1/2020 14:05

The only thing that these lower share prices will do is force the board of Tullow into doing deals on the cheap.Keep bringing the price down and I will keep reducing my average cost.. unless the company goes bust ( which I cannot see happening ) I will make bucketloads. For those who are trying to catch the falling knife and are not spreading their purchases... they will have to wait for the rebound . GLA

[pro_s2009] 22/1/2020 13:59

Share price action is not surprising, the debt is a very large bear sat at the back of the room....... and when you have debt and debt deadlines coming up, where the lenders can seize control of the company - lots of nasty people join together to get their pound of flesh.

All your assets become much lower valued as you are in firesale mode.......things just dry up and then bang - you are staring debt default in the face.

Really would not surprise me if there is a massive fund raising later in 2020 or early 2021 to sort things out - and of course - those shorting now and who will short this down and down will be the ones buying into that fund raising later on. Thats the normal pattern.

[stupmy] 22/1/2020 13:47

Sbb1x, the way you write the following is as if you think it's a terrible thing to do

22 Jan '20 - 11:47 - 40587 of 40596
0 1 0
You stalk distressed companies where private investors are weak and vulnerable.
Fair value is 70p - 100
The sooner they get a new CEO the better.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'd have said that it's a viable strategy that makes an awful lot of sense and is essentially exactly how the smart money in this game works. Why would you not exploit a companíes share price if management had left it in a precarious position and if long only shareholders were likely to fold like a house of cards. I'd have argued it's a good way to make money and if a SH gets to a point where they feel weak and vulnerable in their investment/trade, they should close it ASAP so that they are not on the receiving end of what has happened here with TLW because management have made a pigs ear of things. I'd be amazed if you didn't have that moment of clarity yourself as you typed your post.

[sentimentrules] 22/1/2020 13:37

Bring in distribution/accumulation levels within the volume and UD ratios and cashflows etc stumpy, i think testing 39p is high probability. Its unlikely you would see such numbers if the smart money was expecting price support as close as 48 etc

[stupmy] 22/1/2020 13:35

This will annoy those who work only with fundamentals as it is so simple it verges on sounding trite.

I think 48 or thereabouts is very likely now. If the price closes below 48 today, it will bring 46.5 into play and if that does not act as support 41 becomes much more likely. 41 is not a prediction of the bottom it's a gap in the data on the 2 hour chart (not visible in the daily chart I've included here). If the share price does test the 41 level then it could very well retest the previous low at 38 or so. If that doesn't hold then perhaps SR's view of 21 become more likely (I have no view on 21 for the moment; and without doing any work find it unlikely). If 38 fails as support I'll take a close look at things.

For the moment the momentum remains down.

[monopoli44] 22/1/2020 13:30

Surprise to see it below 50p but it will not last a shake of the tree that is all.

[sentimentrules] 22/1/2020 13:29

Assets on market outlook - not tullows, and assume WTI crude at 50 pb

[sentimentrules] 22/1/2020 13:27

Booty - if you bought this out to pay down all its debts, lay off all staff and associated costs etc - sell the assets - whats the realistic balance

[bootycall] 22/1/2020 13:20

DATAIT You are entitled to your opinion. So why are you posting? I have just bought a lovely tranche and no doubt I will have the opportunity to add lower if we are heading lower. What I do not want to do is wake up one morning and see that a large disposal has been made, the balance sheet transformed and the price has doubled. Tullow has lots of cards to play. By the way I am not a fan of HUR ...and never have been. People need to be selective about their investments in this sector. Tullow has some excellent acreage in the Ivory Coast, Ghana and Guyana... the share price should be north of £1.50 post a resolution of Uganda (and with £40m of cost reductions taken out of the overheads and production up to 80-85kboe for Jubilee)

[datait] 22/1/2020 12:32

No value here

[sentimentrules] 22/1/2020 12:12

Well SBB you said the same to me about KIE in the 130;s. And not sure if it was you but HUR in the mid 40's?

I don't stalk anything. I seek value, same as you. Sometimes that value is short side

[sbb1x] 22/1/2020 11:47

You stalk distressed companies where private investors are weak and vulnerable. Fair value is 70p - 100The sooner they get a new CEO the better.

[monopoli44] 22/1/2020 11:27

Bought 40.000 and a further 10.000 I think is up from now own is unlikely will see the share price below 50p but there is always a but I just hope not...............

[monopoli44] 22/1/2020 11:25

Bought back in at 50.50p large amount.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 22/1/2020 10:42

"Leoneobull21 Jan '20 - 18:20 - 40575 of 40581
Citing a report commissioned by a right wing Eurosceptic party. Hardly non-biased. I've met Dutch officials responsible for the single market three months ago. They are very pro single market. You don't know what you are talking about kiddo"

I'm sourcing from biased material says the person who quotes DUTCH Pro Single Market officials!!!!!!!

You couldn't make such hypocritical tripe up!




"Leoneobull21 Jan '20 - 18:24 - 40576 of 40581
hxxps://www.government.nl/topics/european-union/the-netherlands-and-the-eu-internal-market"

Last time I looked Holland wasnt Britain, and given we are living in UK, talking about whether UK benefits from Single Mkt or not what the bloody hell has Netherlands got to do with anything???


"This will explain the SM in a Netherlands context.
Leoneobull21 Jan '20 - 18:30 - 40577 of 40581
I can tell you know sweet FA about the SM as you post something from Europhobic maniac Owen Paterson, which only talks about goods as a percentage of exports.

How about goods, services, people, capital and data, bro? Did you know the amount of infra EU trade in services between the UK and the EU dwarfs that of our trade in services with Oz and NZ, or elsewhere in the Commonwealth? And services account for a disproportionate share of the economy?"


Hmmm who cares about the Dutch context. We all know they benefit. What we are
interested in is how the UK benefits!!!

Ah there's the ad hominem - I know sweet FA because i'm of a similar view as Owen Patterson who isnt as Europhilic as the Dutch you endlessly reference!!!!!

Hilarious hypocrisy.


And you'll know then that there is no Single Market in "Services"
Never has been either!

Next tripe you will be peddling is?

All you ooze is defeatism.

Must be sad to be a loser. Perhaps you'd be happier if you left the UK - How about Holland? You pontificate about them enough with those Europhilic rose tinted speccies.



"Leoneobull21 Jan '20 - 21:39 - 40578 of 40581
hxxps://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/cost-of-brexit-uk-must-replace-billions-of-eu-cash-with-new-regional-funding/"

Relevance?

EU cash? hahahahaha no such thing as EU cash.

You evidence that it is YOU who actually knows Sweet FA about EU.

That's why you're a sad Remoaner who no doubt crys themselves to sleep at night because they did't get their own way. In the same manner that crackpot of a LibDem Lord does!!!


Scum like you make me sick.

[sbb1x] 22/1/2020 10:37

Extremely disappointing share price. But all it makes me do .... is think is to add more.

[datait] 22/1/2020 08:47

I see this falling under 50p soon enough.

The Corruption in Uganda of all places don't expect nothing and if you get something your laughing as its will be better than nothing.

[datait] 22/1/2020 08:46

Oil price will continue down. The US will do their best to keep it falling hurting Terhan, Iran even more so.