Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[wildsheroo] 29/12/2019 14:58

SP will tumble if there was no RNS in next 2 days, all the hype about Carapara will fizzle out.

[yidarmytom] 29/12/2019 14:19

the longer the logging-while-drilling the greater the prize

[billy_buffin] 29/12/2019 13:04

31st said Repsol - rig and standby vessels still on site.

[diversification] 29/12/2019 11:43

I am sure the maritime notice/license for the jack up rig runs out on Tuesday.

[grafter] 27/12/2019 18:30

DEC 27 - Oil set to close out the year on a high note.

'Oil prices are roughly 30 percent higher than they were at the start of the year, although 12 months ago saw a sudden and steep downturn. Still, WTI rose above $61 in recent days, and investors are more bullish than they have been in months.

'That does not mean that the downside risks have gone away – the IEA still sees a supply surplus in the first quarter – but there is now hope that the market is closer to balance than it has been in a long time.'

Happy Holidays -

[bootycall] 27/12/2019 17:13

The situation regarding ENIs take or pay production being utilised at the expense of Tullows associated gas from Ten and Jubilee should be a source of great embarrassment to the Government of Ghana. Put simply someone has been rather deficient with the use of a calculator. If Ghana was to pay ENI not to produce for a period of time and take Tullow’s free production they would be immediately better off. Surely it doesn’t take a genius to work out the enormous lost tax revenues and share of production lost from lowering Jubilee field long term production forecasts. Then one could add to the equation the cost of top side processing facilities on the FPSO to allow storage/reinjection which come straight out of the generous cost recovery terms on the field ).. once again at a cost to the state. I am afraid once the penny drops the amateur prophets of doom on this thread will disappear up their proverbial behinds.



Furthermore it may be premature to write off the tertiary in Guyana..there is speculation that the tertiary prospects to the North of the block might well be uneconomic to produce ($15 per barrel extra to produce from sour heavy crude)... but further south the tertiary is more likely to yield a lighter crude/condensate . The latest farm out from Apache to Total suggests that the Cretaceous is highly likely to extend into Repsols block in my opinion... but that does not necessarily mean that Carapa will be economic, because reservoir quality is still unknown this far south.
Add to this the recent court hearings in Ghana vs Aker Energy over the plan of development for the Pecan field which has set extremely important legal precedents on field relinquishments and rights of existing operators... which may end up being worth over billions of dollars to Tullow. When I am feeling generous, I might explain why... but for those with a brain I provide a link for the sleuths among you to join up the dots . In my opinion Tullow shares will be well over a pound by March ... without success in Carapa... Have a great weekend and try not to be frightened out of a perfectly good stock.



Please do not rely on the accuracy of any fact or opinion expressed above when making an investment decision.

[master rsi] 27/12/2019 17:08

Russia Sees Oil Supply Squeeze In 2020 - By Irina Slav - Dec 27, 2019,

A decline in crude oil supply after 2020 could lead to higher prices, the Russian Energy Ministry said in a draft energy strategy document.

The same document, however, also saw a bleaker future for oil demand, forecasting that it will slow in the coming years and maybe peak before 2030, TASS reported, quoting the draft strategy.

“Demand for oil products will be formed under the influence of growing consumption in the transport sector simultaneously with decreasing demand in the household and commercial sectors, as well as in the electric power industry," the draft also said.

Even if prices fall a lot further, however, Russia will have commercially viable reserve sufficient for three years, in a scenario with oil prices at $25-30 per barrel. That’s what Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said earlier this week, suggesting there was such a possibility.

"Since oil prices are unlikely to increase dramatically, then if the restrictions on oil production are not reached with OPEC countries, there are, of course, risks that prices may drop to $25-30 per barrel,” Siluanov told media. “Our budget policy allows us to circumvent these risks for up to three years, fulfilling all our obligations with accumulated reserves,” he added.

Russia is notoriously wary of oil price fluctuations and has been making its annual budgets based on substantially lower than actual prices. The base price in the 2019 budget, for example, was about $41.60 per barrel.

Meanwhile, wherever prices go, Russia’s Energy Ministry expects the country’s total output to average around and slightly above 11.2 million bpd until 2024, according to the draft strategy document. That’s the same average output level that Russia recorded last year. The expectation suggests that Moscow does not expect any further deepening of the production cuts it agreed to implement alongside its OPEC partners to stabilize prices.

[theapplefreak] 27/12/2019 16:46

Monday is a new day and you never know. It could be the rns day. I for one think we've held up pretty well considering the lack of news since the recent disaster.

[master rsi] 27/12/2019 16:42

re - One thing positive is the lower lows of the Intraday chart are higher all the time

But the UT @ 64.78p had spoiled de broth and soup turn sour, I mean the chart.

[xtomo] 27/12/2019 15:52

Mtro.. Tul.. Mnc.. endless ramps repeatedly every hour. Probably on min wage to do it. Something like SR.. I've him filtered now too.

[master rsi] 27/12/2019 15:46

One thing positive is the lower lows of the Intraday chart are higher all the time

64.00
64.20
64.90
65.20p

[yidarmytom] 27/12/2019 15:36

Is MTRO related to TLW?

[onehanded] 27/12/2019 15:09

Something to watch ..share tip of metro bank MTRO 2020 on stockpick with AIM stock pick FA. fireangel fire safety as both turn around stock to watch.

[master rsi] 27/12/2019 14:25

We had 4 peaks on the intraday chart, but every one of them after the 1st one is slightly lower.

if it continues that trend then no much chance of breaking the earlier one.
1 - 66.50p
2 - 66.42p
3 - 66.34p
4 - 66.30p

[master rsi] 27/12/2019 14:11

Crude Oil Extends Rally, Pressing on $62 Level
Crude oil has enjoyed a solid Christmas week, posting gains of 2.4 percent. Investors are keeping a close eye on the EIA crude inventory release, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

Crude prices are pointing upwards for a fourth successive day. Currently, West Texas Intermediate crude futures are trading at $61.94, up $0.16 or 0.27%. Brent crude oil futures are trading at $68.14, up $0.24 or 0.35%.

EIA Forecasts Drop in Crude Inventories
A light economic calendar will wrap up with the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report of crude inventories. The estimate for last week stands at -1.7 million barrels. Although the EIA reports have tended to point to a surplus in inventories in recent months, traders should note that the two of the past three releases have been drawdowns. If the upcoming release is within expectations, crude oil could lose ground before the weekend.

Oil Rises Ahead of Signing of ‘Phase 1’
After two and a half years of a bitter trade war, the U.S. and China are set to sign ‘Phase 1’, which is a limited trade agreement. Under the deal, China and the U.S. have agreed to reduce or eliminate tariffs, and China has agreed to make some structural changes in its trade relationship with the United States. This has boosted investor confidence, as the deal marks the first step in solving the trade war. Although ‘Phase 1’ is only a first step, it nonetheless is an important breakthrough, as the U.S .and China have agreed to suspend tariffs which were scheduled to take effect earlier this week. The deal has raised risk appetite and raised hopes that the two sides will reach another trade accord shortly.

Technical Analysis
On the upside, there is a major Fibonacci level at 62.05, followed by resistance at 62.25. Above there is resistance at 63.25. On the downside, the round number of 61.00 is providing support, followed by 59.75.

[maturo] 27/12/2019 13:57

F O - Turvart - nobody cares about your nonsense, not even the jew community for the looks of it.

[stupmy] 27/12/2019 13:54

It didn't go unnoticed Master and for the moment, they're focussed on what they need to be focussed on, production, debt reduction. Not exploration and acquisition. I've stayed firm there (and it's cost me a lot in opportunity). It will pay me well next year.

[master rsi] 27/12/2019 13:35

Stupmy
Yes the problem has been the large debt as is the case here, but if Oil prices are managing to keep at these higher levels then the debt problem will be less of a thing and the market could easily rerate thee stock as you say.

The CEO has beeen busy addind any time that the share price was below 19p for the family Trust, so someone was putting the money where the mouth is. Not only that but maybe the overhang is slowly being cleared after the large but far away by now of the placing.

[misca2] 27/12/2019 13:27

yep

get the right sized glass

and the glass will be niether half full or half empty but just right

cheers,sante, salute et skol

[stupmy] 27/12/2019 13:22

Master, I think it will start to rely less on POO in the coming year. I think it will rerate to the upside as it bangs down that debt. Obviously no-one (except Whites) can see into the future. Still not exposed here. Won't be 'exposing myself' either as I'm enjoying my wine too much. Wine and trading don't mix well, but wine and creaming in profits works ok for me.

[stupmy] 27/12/2019 13:19

Yes, it's starting to look attractive. I've retained 70% of my trading shares, and 100% of what I call my 'lump', that's not 'limp' whites, it's 'lump', you could even pronounce it as 'lerrmp' if you want as we're speaking french where we're drinking Bordeaux (en fait pour le moment on boit du Bergerac, ça change les choses, il faut 'shake it up' de temps en temps). Bonne fête tout le monde. Et bon fin d'année.

[misca2] 27/12/2019 13:14

them gaps must get filled during jan and feb me thinks

[master rsi] 27/12/2019 13:06

Hi Stupmy

re - ENQ

Good for you, some will say a profit is a profit and if is large better, as you most likely know I was in a few times there, but lately I haven't as it was moving too much side ways. It does well when Oil price spikes and in so has been today.
On breaking the 20p had a nice spike up