Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[blueteam] 23/11/2017 14:57

200 to be tested again soon.

[spirito] 23/11/2017 14:33

blue!!! i see blu!!

[nicebut] 23/11/2017 13:59

LOL

Scientologists?

[spirito] 23/11/2017 13:22

Wtf are you on about

[krammy1] 23/11/2017 10:59

If there was 7 planets all with humans on. The people in power positions . Are always crooked. That’s humans .

[paulbiya] 23/11/2017 07:44

Hmmmmmwhen is that 2 million a delayed trade?

[xxnjr1] 23/11/2017 00:36

Sorry mate, never been anywhere near an oil company, other than when filling up at the local Shell forecourt. Used to hold Tullow from about 2004 to 2012, so any broker notes that were floating around then are way out of date now. I did look up an old spreadsheet I started in 2007, that was loosely based on a Merrill Lynch note, and at that time $5 to $7.50 npv/bbl seemed to be the going rate for equatorial margin type frontier exploration, risked at 15% to 25% prospect dependent. So I guess $5 NPV maybe is top wack now, conservatively risked at 10%? Anyway it's all a bit academic unless they can find some of the damn stuff ;-)

Good to know TLW are trading in a conservative valuation range. Let's hope OPEC/Russia extend production cuts again.

[frazboy] 22/11/2017 22:34

Thanks xxnjr, I did realise that there was no simple answer to the question other than some crude risked analysis of prospect inventories but I was rather hoping you might have some analyst research note that you could quote from, or that you might have a top of the head figure - you seem pretty clued up on the E side, I had assumed you were a current/ex geo industry employee.

Your post did make me laugh tho, yes, exploration could be considered a burden, but I can't bring myself to give it a zero in the spreadsheet even in the current climate - I remember the days when Tullow had a 70% plus technical (or was it commercial) success rate on its exploration wells!

Given spot/future prices for oil, my sum of the parts valuation says, that trading Tullow is fine, unless there's a material change in circumstance. It's not a bargain, but it's not overpriced either.

[paulbiya] 22/11/2017 21:40

Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW)'s stock had its "outperform" rating restated by analysts at Credit Suisse Group in a research note issued on Friday, November 3rd. They presently have a GBX 205 ($2.70) price objective on the stock. Credit Suisse Group's price objective would suggest a potential upside of 18.22% from the company's previous close.A number of other equities analysts also recently issued reports on the company. Deutsche Bank AG increased their target price on Tullow Oil plc from GBX 200 ($2.63) to GBX 210 ($2.76) and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, October 13th. Macquarie reiterated an "outperform" rating and set a GBX 245 ($3.22) target price on shares of Tullow Oil plc in a report on Thursday, July 27th. Barclays PLC restated an "overweight" rating and set a GBX 210 ($2.76) target price on shares of Tullow Oil plc in a research note on Friday, July 28th. Royal Bank Of Canada upgraded Tullow Oil plc to an "outperform" rating and raised their target price for the company from GBX 200 ($2.63) to GBX 260 ($3.42) in a research note on Tuesday, September 26th. Finally, Jefferies Group LLC reiterated a "hold" rating and issued a GBX 155 ($2.04) price target on shares of Tullow Oil plc in a research note on Tuesday, September 19th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, seven have issued a hold rating and ten have given a buy rating to the stock. Tullow Oil plc presently has a consensus rating of "Hold" and an average price target of GBX 229.20 ($3.01).

[xxnjr1] 22/11/2017 18:07

frazboy - what would you value Tullow's exploration assets at?

The best thing I can suggest is find some recent analyst research notes for Tullow if you can, and see what NPV/bbl valuations are ascribed to their individual exploration assets. But even then I would be sceptical in the current climate. There was a time when Sum of the Parts valuations seemed to be helpful in assessing upside, but I'm not sure the market pays so much attention to that sort of thing these days. I mean take Anadarko, they've just spent a fortune in Cote d'Ivoire and it's just ended up being a black hole in the accounts. You could even argue exploration should maybe carry a negative value in your spreadsheet, as it's usually followed by write downs.

[xxnjr1] 22/11/2017 17:49

That kind of makes sense (bagging CI-519, CI-518, CI-302 and CI-301) as a quid pro quo to get better things in deeper water.

CI-527/8 and 9 were relinquished by Anadarko, who drilled 3 wells there recently.
Pelican-1X found 70ft net pay of oil. An up dip appraisal of that found non-commercial volumes of HC's. So maybe the reservoir quality in that turbidite fan was variable.
And Rossignol-1X drilled on another Fan found 15 ft net pay of oil. So Oil about, but apparently non-commercial.

Anadarko are also in the process of exiting CI-103 and their Paon discovery, which Tullow had an interest in once.

CI-603 and CI-602 ex XOM are Ultra Deep Water (3000m to 4000m), so not really what Tullow have been chasing recently, unless they have had a change of heart.

This exploration address used to be Hot, but nothing commercial came out of recent exploration, so hopefully PSC terms more favourable than before and TLW not committing to mega expensive work programs.

[mcsean2164] 22/11/2017 17:05

Good to close above 170, hopefully onwards and upwards again. Not sure why we're down here. Need 250p for new car, might be waiting a while!😬

[cojones] 22/11/2017 12:50

Oil price still rising. Bread and butter comes to mind ;)

[billy_buffin] 22/11/2017 11:27

Tullow Ivory Coast
Reportedly by African Intel 22/11/2017

Interested CI-527/8 and 9. They now relinquished
In process CI-520, CI-521 CI-522 ex Quest
Interested CI-603 and CI-602 ex XOM
Already bagged CI-519, CI-518, CI-302 and CI-301

[spirito] 22/11/2017 10:55

Let's hope we run back up to 200 quickly now!

[gregpeck7] 22/11/2017 09:35

Because of the large short position here tullow is being greatly manipulated. Any minor oil drop they slam it, big oil rise it creeps up.. at some point this re rates though.

[mariopeter] 22/11/2017 09:33

Fraz

Have a look at what they farmed out that recent lump in Uganda to Total for.... per barrel in the ground and apply to Kenya bearing in mind the higher oil price. From memory it was about $6/$7 per barrel oil in the ground.

[frazboy] 22/11/2017 08:44

Xxnjr - question for you, what would you value Tullow's exploration assets at? I realise this is lsrgely guesswork, but I don't have a clue as to what number to put in a spreadsheet. The producing assets can be valued from cashflows and Kenya/Uganda from farm-outs by Tullow and other companies, but the exploration assets!? Thoughts appreciated!

[mccracken227] 22/11/2017 07:48

Last month oil did not quite reach today's price but Tullow touched £2 now nearly 20% lower, work that out!!

[spirito] 22/11/2017 07:42

oil up so surely we'll be down

[xxnjr1] 21/11/2017 23:16

Well it's more likely to be a farm in, rather than a buy? Hopefully recovery of some historic costs, and a partial carry on the next well, should Tullow elect to move into the 2nd renewal phase. In which case Tullow get another 15% from ECO.

hxxp://www.ongcindia.com/wps/wcm/connect/ongcindia/home/media/press_release/ongc-videsh-to-acquire-15-interest

Eco is currently the operator of the License and Tullow shall acquire another 15% participating Interest and assume the role of Operator from Eco under the License, in case Tullow elects to proceed into the Second Renewal Exploration Period

Also note

Coming soon after the completion of the first acquisition of 30% participating interest in PEL-0037 from Tullow on 3 October 2017, the completion of the present transaction would strengthen ONGC Videsh partnership with Tullow

The acquisition is consistent with ONGC Videsh’s strategic objective of adding high quality exploration and production assets to its existing E&P portfolio.

Well ONGC have done the E part. Perhaps they might be interested in the P part; with a farm in into TEN!

[mccracken227] 21/11/2017 19:21

No rns. ONGC Videsh buys 15% stake in Namibia offshore block from Tullow Oil

[cojones] 21/11/2017 17:18

Should have ended 175p today with this positively high volume. Hopefully tommorow should shed some light and a change of tack during next week ;)

[teamwork1] 21/11/2017 16:14

Let's all hope it goes up from here

[bmw30csl] 21/11/2017 15:32

Why the weakness here?