Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 17/11/2017 22:38

I think Muhammed bin new leader is a naughty boy who starts wars in Yemen and needs his backside tanning

[mcsean2164] 17/11/2017 16:33

I wonder if it's being used as a hedge by oil bulls. Liquid, debt and no dividends. That could explain the sp?

[gkphero] 17/11/2017 15:25

Buy GKP for big returns.

[alfiex] 17/11/2017 14:37

Oil up almost $1 and Tullow up 0.2p who says not manipulated down

[mariopeter] 17/11/2017 12:03

Debt is hugely cheaper than issuing more shares. Cost of issuing shares is earnings per share (not dividends)

The Company has a lot of debt but it has serious assets , good management and now a vast ability to repay the debt. Lenders' dream customer.

Bit too highly geared for the serious institutional money just yet. Selling part of Kenya will be the trigger but Kenya is unstable currently and investors are getting impatient.

[spirito] 17/11/2017 11:00

Shorts back up

[billionaire1] 17/11/2017 09:32

this share should carry a health warning

[alfiex] 17/11/2017 09:22

Oil up aswell what a dog

[spirito] 17/11/2017 09:06

.........really?

[teamwork1] 17/11/2017 08:46

Tlw been dropping for past week

[fuji99] 17/11/2017 07:57

Due to a strong consolidation in this sector already taking place, it would be shrewd to be heavily loaded in oil regardless of stories, shorts, longs and all the gossip stuff and I mean it.

[fuji99] 17/11/2017 07:20

TLW is in safe places where turmoil is very low (mainly Africa).
It has a very good management who turning around efficiently the company.
As its share price does not reflect its potential and its real value, it will be a takeover target by the majors very soon as consolidation and takeover activity is starting to brew in this sector.
According to the Telegraph major oilers are circling Petrofac.
Is TLW next ? ...

[mcsean2164] 16/11/2017 21:35

Mirabeau,

There was a placing to reduce debt this year and it worked.

They are reducing debt.... My question is why the drop now?

[frazboy] 16/11/2017 20:56

We've also had a production upgrade, a predicted shortening of the required downtime for the turret repair and approval of thegreater jubilee field development plan... by my calcs we should have only seen a 10p drop in the share price in reaction to the OP correction

I agree with Mirabeau, the debt, specially the RBL is a concern, and the bonds are hardly cheap to finance (their price has hardly budged in the last couple of days, by the way). So, in some ways a rights issue would not be a massive concern but I still don't understand why they didn't make the last one a little larger!?

There was a poster on here this morning who had been trading these, and after the price drop was left with a larger holding than they wanted - that's my predicament too, but I've done a hefty bit of my own research and think that the shares are reasonable value at current prices so not unduly concerned.

One question tho - why on earth is FCF only $400m this year - my spreadsheet says it should be 500 plus - all sensible suggestions welcomed.

[mirabeau] 16/11/2017 20:16

Debt's the killer here. As with PMO and ENQ. Debt eats into equity and equity is your ownership of the business. Debt's the cancer

A shame. Why management take on debt to buy assets is beyond me. I'd say it's more akin to empire building rather than building a sustainable business

[mcsean2164] 16/11/2017 20:10

frazboy,

I just doesn't make sense to me, look at poo:



It still over $61!!

We've had the positive ITLOS ruling, successful fund raising and they share price has collapsed to mid September value. TLW seems to be really unliked for some reason.... anyone know why?

[frazboy] 16/11/2017 17:54

So 5m of the 33m trades over those days were the shorters increasing their positions - it certainly wouldn't have a positive impact on the SP, but disappointing that it wasn't balanced by longs seeing value - perhaps understandable with the IEA report etc

[cheek212] 16/11/2017 17:27

Reported shorts are up today so could explain the price drop over the past couple of days, up 0.3% to 7.3% on the 14th and 15th.

[fuji99] 16/11/2017 16:06

It's the Saudis who will do it via their "coalition", friends and family.
The new "king" is nuts to the point of highjacking even prime ministers ...
Where is Lebanon prime minister now ? So with this guy, war is just another game.

[ifthecapfits] 16/11/2017 15:37

Hmm. War coming to the ME? Not that facts get in the way. Not sure Iran has ever invaded or attacked any sovereign state for many hundreds of years.

[fuji99] 16/11/2017 14:30

Three important factors that make oil stocks and Tullow in particular attractive: 1/ Efficient and cash focused management 2/Middle East turmoil (Saudi/Iran the biggest reserves holders etc) and 3/ Winter on its way with "analysts" suddenly finding out or should I say "discovering by miracle" that more oil is needed as inventories are wrong again ... as I wonder why oil price keeps creeping up for a while now and is over $60.
So I stick to my oily stocks.

[teamwork1] 16/11/2017 13:44

That's more like it