Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[oilretire] 20/8/2016 18:44

Yes kev, thought it was on the cards, just wasn't sure if it had been formally announced.

[cricklewood] 20/8/2016 18:29

Oil Price Recovery Likely to Continue, Say Company Executives

[value king] 20/8/2016 16:13

I sold my TLW last week and put the money into the retrace on BP. Seems to me they are likely to rally as strongly or better than TLW and pay me a yield.

I hope these play out well for you all.

[kevjones2] 20/8/2016 16:09

oilretire, it was common knowledge that it was likely Tullow would pull out of Norway. They had a duster there in early July and the PoO makes it not worthwhile continuing. The negative is that 50 jobs are lost. The positives for Tullow are considerable savings plus whatever money they'll get for selling their Norwegian assets.

[oilretire] 20/8/2016 12:50

Been busy so not paying attention to this board or looked through the presentation, but spotted an article last night saying tullow are pulling out of Norway - is that common knowledge? Apologies if it is....Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/117265/tullow-oil-confirms-norway-exit-plans-consulting-staff/

[ibug] 19/8/2016 16:01

That presentation is excellent ....like slide 7....thanks.

[hazl] 19/8/2016 15:35

from slide 20 it shows the progress to the point to where we are now.

In case it hasn't been posted the article here.


'Further, we believe when we overlay the operational progress with our commodity price view, Tullow Oil is one of the most compelling levered E&Ps to gain exposure to an upswing to a recovery in oil prices."

Merrill pointed out that Tullow is on the cusp of a 30% increase in group production, while simultaneously lowering opex and capex 25% and 40%, respectively.

"With the TEN field start-up imminent (18 August), Tullow is in a position to generate 15%+ free cash flow yields as group production grows 30% year-on-year."

In addition, BofA said that while Tullow's net debt position has been a perennial overhang for the company, with an organic pay-down focus, it will now be in a much stronger position in negotiating its reserves-based loan facility at year-end 2016.

"Indeed, we think Tullow is about to enter the most rapid deleveraging of any company in our coverage, moving from YE16 net debt: EBITDA of 5.9x to 3.9 x by year-end 2017."

Furthermore, it said that now that management has successfully raised $300m via a convertible issue in July, it is under significantly less pressure to sell upstream assets pro-cyclically, which is a positive step.'

[bakedbean57] 19/8/2016 15:23

BAU oil stable / up and TLW having a slip take it shorter pressure building again with cycle?

[ibug] 19/8/2016 14:50

Some people may find this article by a master analyst interesting as it predicts a drop in the main markets from 26th - 30th August....perhaps a good time for bargains.


Momentum has been bullish for awhile: Strategist

Friday, 12 Aug 2016 | 1:41 AM ET
Sandy Jadeja, chief market strategist at SignalPro, provides his outlook for commodity prices and asks how strong stock market momentum is.

[rndm355] 19/8/2016 14:08

New article: The giant expands production. But what does the future hold?

[kevjones2] 19/8/2016 13:34

PoO holding up well and Tullow hanging on. I expected a good day today. Maybe we'll have a late flourish.

[hazl] 19/8/2016 13:34

ALLIANCE NEWS TODAY


'IN THE KNOW: Barclays Expects Cash And Oil To Flow For Tullow
Barclays said the first oil pumped by Tullow Oil from its offshore project in Ghana should boost its cashflow and allow it to de-lever the...
Subscribe now to see this Premium News article from
Alliance News

[1birddog] 19/8/2016 11:28

GED on the up investors beginning to realise how cheap this is

As Simon Thompson in IC noted


"However, with shareholders losing patience, the shares have drifted to such an extent that the cash pile is now almost three times the company's market value. In addition, the company owns property, plant and equipment valued at $22.3m on its balance sheet, so after deducting liabilities net asset value of $54.3m equates to £37.2m at current exchange rates, or FOUR TIMES times the company's current market value."
That's cash 67p a share plus assets.Share price 28p !!!!

GED must be the cheapest oil play

[hazl] 19/8/2016 10:32

Well,thanks ibug but perhaps quite a few of us are long-term investors
rather than short-term.

[ibug] 19/8/2016 10:14

Tullow Oil (LON:TLW, 239.60p) - Speculative Buy
Tullow Oil has announced that first oil has flowed from the Tweneboa, Enyenra, Ntomme (TEN) fields offshore Ghana. First oil has been reached on time and on budget three years after the Plan of Development was approved in May 2013. The TEN start-up process is now well advanced and Tullow expects oil production to ramp-up gradually towards the FPSO capacity of 80,000 bopd through the remainder of 2016. Tullow estimates that TEN average annualised production in 2016 will be approximately 23,000 bopd gross (net: 11,000 bopd). Tullow is the operator of the TEN fields and holds a 47.175% stake. Tullow's joint venture partners are Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (17%), Kosmos Energy (17%), Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (15%) and PetroSA (3.875%).

Our view: This is an important moment for Tullow as production begins from the TEN fields. It is also pleasing to report the delivering of this project on time and on budget. This brings to a close a period of heavy investment for Tullow, and we look forward to seeing debt (US$4.7bn) reduction. It is important that production at least meets guidance for real impact on the debt reduction. Tullow Oil is one of Beaufort Securities Tips for the Year, and whilst we retain a Speculative Buy on the Company, short-term investors may wish to lock in some profits.

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/beaufort-securities/25787/breakfast-alert-concepta-kingfisher-national-grid-physiomics-premier-oil-tullow-oil-25787.html

[argylerich] 19/8/2016 08:02

Shorts increased again to 12.41, taking the gamble on POO.It will be messy for them if OPEC actually agree a production limit. That's a lot to unwind quickly.

[kevjones2] 18/8/2016 22:51

With the PoO up around $50.90 tomorrow could be another good day for Tullow.

[wookie77] 18/8/2016 22:07

IN case anyone is interested i have done some technical analysis on Bowleven another African O&G company. It is trading at a discount to cash value. No Debt and assets in for free.....for those not interested apologies for off topic.

Firstly i have not seen so many buy signals on BLVN before. Aside from Ichimoku which is VERY bullish, in the last few days the price broke though not only a 2 year down trend but also through the 200 MA. The 50 MA is a hairs breath away and with recent momentum a cross over (GOLDEN CROSS) the 200 is inevitable. This is of course "THE" ultimate buy signal. Given the length of the downtrend and how undervalued this stock is on a Cash/asset mcap basis including zero debt and rising oil prices, i believe this is only the start and the price is at the beginning of a major and sustained breakout. This is just my view but just so some out there are aware of the technicals.....apologies again for off topic and i remain Long and bullish on Tullow.

[wookie77] 18/8/2016 21:06

shorts now 12.3%......surely getting twitchy.....a squeeze coming soon i think..

[hazl] 18/8/2016 18:53

Thankyou kevJones I had been avoiding oil stocks and expecting a longer time of poor oil prices.
However I read a couple of articles from different sources that made me believe that perhaps now was the time to pick up some oil stocks.

I remember TLW doing well from before so it seemed the natural choice.
I am in agreement with you that the best reward will come from staying the course, so if I can, that will be the way forward I think.
The video I watched left me with the phrase 'we will probably never see such low prices again in our life-time' or something to that effect.
Who knows?
I decided it was worth a gamble!

IMO

[ben chod] 18/8/2016 17:50

hxxps://youtu.be/X3D9_BSyzEY

[kevjones2] 18/8/2016 16:00

bigdazzler, today Tullow went back to following the price of oil closely. It looks like being another good day for us holders who intend to hold long.

hazl, there'll most likely be ups and downs. TEN is not the huge catalyst you may have been led to believe. It's very important and hugely positive - particularly coming in on schedule and at budget (remarkable achievement really). TEN has been largely already factored in by the markets (no doubt it still helped with the share price a little today). As suggested and agreed by other holders in all oil companies, it's really all about the price of oil. The benefits of TEN etc enhance the share price increases when the price of oil rises.

In the mid to long term (6-9 months, and thereafter) I have more confidence in Tullow than any other share I'm invested in. That's just one person's opinion (mine) and I'm a glass half-empty kinda guy! Tullow is my favourite investment.

[hazl] 18/8/2016 15:38

I'm pleased here but its this is surely the start of the journey?!