Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[kevjones2] 18/8/2016 11:58

mcsean, frontdoor bull that was me causing the confusion. I was quoting WTI, I think. Apologies.

[mcsean2164] 18/8/2016 11:44

Think there's confusion over brent and wti

[kevjones2] 18/8/2016 11:34

I was using Live charts and it was 47.05 at that time. Cant use it now cos now on mobile (too slow). I assume it's gone down as the share price has too,

[nicebut] 18/8/2016 10:58

I think he means.

[frontdoor bull] 18/8/2016 10:50

47 ????????

[kevjones2] 18/8/2016 10:45

Price of oil just gone over $47 and Tullow following its trend even closer than usual.

[ibug] 18/8/2016 10:10

INTERESTING STUFF...especially as Exxon estimate 800 million - 1.4 billion boip.

Tullow and its Partners continue to evaluate and map prospectivity in the offshore Kanuku licence and an 18 month extension has been requested to allow a new 3D survey to be acquired. In early 2016, Tullow was awarded a 60% operated interest in the Orinduik licence, a 1,801 square kilometre block offshore Guyana. Both of Tullow’s Guyana licences sit close to Exxon Mobil’s ‘Liza’ oil discovery which was announced in 2015.

[mercer95] 18/8/2016 09:56

Great news about ten,it's got a revolving turret enabling it to operate in all weather conditions,like something out of a James Bond film,hopefully Tullow can now pay off some of their debt,the bulk of which was incurred setting up Ten,Tullow is still a strong hold for me, waiting on news on Guyana test well.

[ibug] 18/8/2016 09:25

The TEN project can now start ramping up over the coming weeks to about 80,000 bopd making a material difference to revenues and lower risk.

[kevjones2] 18/8/2016 09:12

Amazing that a project of such size is completed on schedule. Good start to today especially when TEN was already largely factored in. Looking good.

[ibug] 18/8/2016 09:01

The MACD Chart looks to be suggesting a buying cycle may begin in about 10 mins as the short sellers clear off.

[nicebut] 18/8/2016 08:48

12.2% short here...Thats c109.48m shares sold short.

[ibug] 18/8/2016 08:21

TULLOW ANNOUNCES FIRST OIL FROM TEN FIELDS

(ShareCast News) - Crude oil began flowing from Tullow Oil's TEN fields offshore Ghana on time and on budget.
First oil had started being pumped to its floating production offtake vessel Prof. John Evans Atta Mills from the Tweneboa, Enyenra, Ntomme (TEN), the company said in a statement.

Significantly, the project was thus far running both on schedule and within budget.

Oil production from TEN would now rampo-up gradually towards the FPSO's capacity of 80,000 barrels of oil per day throughtout the remainder of 2016, Tullow said.

The oil exploration and production outfit had projected average annualised production from TEN in 2016 would reach roughly 23,000bopd gross or 11,000 bopd on a net basis.

Tullow was the operator of the TEN fields but only held a 47.175% stake.

Its joint-venture partners were Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (17%), Kosmos Energy (17%), Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (15%) and PetroSA (3.875%).

[ibug] 18/8/2016 08:16

Nice rise this morning --- and it has much further to run especially with oil @ almost $50 USD/ barrel.....this stock is now derisked as it is eligible for a proportion of a 15% repayment of carry costs from the Ghana government.


COME ON 285p...SOOOOON imo.

[frontdoor bull] 18/8/2016 08:10

YAHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo

[hazl] 18/8/2016 08:09

Excellent indeed well done ibug and of course TLW.

[ibug] 18/8/2016 08:07

As predicted news....excellent.

[kevjones2] 18/8/2016 00:02

As I have repeatedly stated earlier today, there MIGHT be an RNS in the morning but only because Tullow chose to issue one not because some poster inferred something from what an investment bank hinted. Indeed, I hope there is one and that's it a very good one but all is fine if there isn't.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 22:51

Once the shorters clear off this stock should perform a lot better...that will happen when the markets realise the business has effectively derisked.


WATCH OUT FOR NEWS TOMORROW...if it arrives about the TEN project then perhaps we might party.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 22:49

The following is some independent analysis:

Operating performance:

The TEN Project, located off the Ghanaian coast, is on schedule to deliver first oil in early August and is expected to increase group net production by c. 60% when it reaches facility capacity around the end of 2016. This is expected to allow the group to begin deleveraging organically.

New operating procedures at Jubilee, following the FPSO Turret fault, are working well with H216 production expected to average 85,000 bopd. Meanwhile the process of spread mooring the FPSO to provide a long term solution has begun. Tullow is insured against both the capital costs of the damage and lost production and revenue.

Progress continues with the upstream and pipeline projects in Kenya and Uganda. The Kenya appraisal programme underpins an estimated recoverable resource of 750mmbo with exploration and appraisals in the South Lokichar Basin to restart in Q4. The Kenya Early Oil Pilot Scheme is currently being assessed by the Kenyan government and offers a potential 2,000 bopd by the second half of 2017.

Our view:

Tullow cannot control the oil price, and it has been desperately unlucky. Having found vast quantities of oil it then saw the rug pulled from under its feet when the price of crude plunged, just as the company was fully committed to taking on huge debts in order to develop the new fields.

Crucially, Tullow's lenders have kept the faith, renewing and extending debt facilities through thick and thin, allowing Tullow to focus on developing its discoveries. The problem with the Jubilee production vessel's turret is a distraction, but shows the importance of being well insured, for without it, Tullow could have been dealt a body blow.

With most of the capital expenditure behind it and costs falling, Tullow is finally starting to see rising production. By the end of 2016 TEN is expected to be producing 80,000 bopd, worth around $3.6m a day to revenues at current oil prices, after which the group will be hoping for further growth in production from the East African discoveries and a recovery at Jubilee.

However, the balance sheet looms large for Tullow, with debt rising rapidly over the last few years. The company suggests that the combination of TEN coming online and falling operating and capital expenditure means it will be able to begin organic deleveraging (using cash flow to pay down the debt mountain rather than seeking to raise new equity). Unfortunately Tullow's cash flow is largely dependent on the oil price, so debt repayment depends on conditions not deteriorating further.

The company deserves credit for their ongoing exploration success and their development achievements. But the value of it all is out of their hands and the stock will remain a play on future oil prices. Investors should also bear in mind that at some point, Tullow may seek to raise additional equity funds to cut debt levels.

All yield figures are variable and not guaranteed.

[wookie77] 17/8/2016 22:48

I think we've topped out in the short term. Oil prices up 10%+ but in the last two days we've ground out a few pennies. I expect we'll see some increased short positions again. Im bullish Tullow but it worries me how badly the share price has performed compared to others and also the number of shorts...